Logan Warmoth
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 26 | AAATOR | 338 | .229/.327/.375 | 7 | 14 | 63 | — | .206/.277/.320 |
| 2023 | 27 | AASEA | 429 | .239/.354/.358 | 8 | 28 | 58 | — | .189/.274/.287 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 275 | .187/.320/.240 | 2 | 10 | 31 | — | .163/.256/.209 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | — | 23 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 273 | 304 | 409 | 713 | 136 | 263 | 9 | 4 | 318 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 322 | 282 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 69 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 248 | 327 | 319 | 646 | 71 | 318 | 21 | 9 | 292 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | — | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 500 | 273 | 773 | 429 | 25 | 12 | 395 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 254 | 220 | 44 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 74 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 200 | 293 | 277 | 570 | 77 | 295 | 29 | 9 | 262 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 158 | 137 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 292 | 382 | 423 | 806 | 131 | 394 | 26 | 12 | 361 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 71 | 61 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 295 | 394 | 443 | 837 | 148 | 447 | 31 | 13 | 377 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 413 | 342 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 56 | 137 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 228 | 353 | 357 | 710 | 129 | 347 | 33 | 14 | 324 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 338 | 293 | 67 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 94 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 229 | 327 | 375 | 703 | 147 | 309 | 28 | 11 | 317 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 429 | 360 | 86 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 55 | 115 | 9 | 28 | 10 | 239 | 354 | 358 | 712 | 119 | 322 | 27 | 13 | 325 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 94 | 75 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 173 | 311 | 227 | 538 | 53 | 218 | 22 | 13 | 254 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 181 | 150 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 44 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 193 | 324 | 247 | 571 | 53 | 262 | 24 | 15 | 274 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 23 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 261 | 364 | 625 | 136 | 208 | 13 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 322 | 290 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 100 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 210 | 273 | 276 | 549 | 66 | 297 | 31 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 16 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 375 | 167 | 542 | 339 | 38 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 254 | 226 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 90 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 168 | 245 | 230 | 475 | 62 | 261 | 35 | 6 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 158 | 142 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 60 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 293 | 317 | 610 | 99 | 348 | 38 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 413 | 360 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 170 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 181 | 277 | 272 | 549 | 92 | 305 | 41 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 338 | 306 | 63 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 111 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 206 | 277 | 320 | 597 | 114 | 293 | 33 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 429 | 380 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 135 | 9 | 28 | 10 | 189 | 274 | 287 | 560 | 97 | 261 | 31 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 94 | 79 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 152 | 256 | 203 | 458 | 51 | 188 | 27 | 9 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 181 | 160 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 53 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 169 | 257 | 212 | 469 | 44 | 235 | 29 | 10 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 23 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 261 | 364 | 625 | 136 | 222 | 13 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK RAW | GCL Blue Jays | — | 23 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 273 | 304 | 409 | 713 | 136 | 263 | 9 | 4 | 318 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 338 | 302 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 106 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 212 | 281 | 275 | 556 | 63 | 315 | 31 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 338 | 293 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 73 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 249 | 335 | 317 | 653 | 68 | 321 | 22 | 9 | 297 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 483 | 432 | 79 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 176 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 183 | 260 | 252 | 512 | 69 | 298 | 36 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 483 | 418 | 102 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 50 | 137 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 244 | 338 | 349 | 687 | 105 | 349 | 28 | 10 | 311 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 413 | 360 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 170 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 181 | 277 | 272 | 549 | 92 | 316 | 41 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA RAW | Buffalo Bisons | — | 413 | 342 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 56 | 137 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 228 | 353 | 357 | 710 | 129 | 347 | 33 | 14 | 324 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 338 | 306 | 63 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 111 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 206 | 277 | 320 | 597 | 114 | 302 | 33 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA RAW | Buffalo Bisons | — | 338 | 293 | 67 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 94 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 229 | 327 | 375 | 703 | 147 | 309 | 28 | 11 | 317 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 429 | 380 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 135 | 9 | 28 | 10 | 189 | 274 | 287 | 560 | 97 | 267 | 31 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 429 | 360 | 86 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 55 | 115 | 9 | 28 | 10 | 239 | 354 | 358 | 712 | 119 | 322 | 27 | 13 | 325 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 239 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 78 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 159 | 253 | 192 | 445 | 33 | 226 | 28 | 9 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 275 | 225 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 65 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 187 | 320 | 240 | 560 | 53 | 247 | 24 | 15 | 267 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 23 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 261 | 364 | 625 | 136 | 208 | 13 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 338 | 306 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 106 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 209 | 281 | 271 | 552 | 62 | 299 | 31 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 483 | 435 | 79 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 176 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 182 | 260 | 251 | 511 | 69 | 294 | 36 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 413 | 362 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 170 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 180 | 277 | 271 | 548 | 91 | 305 | 41 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 338 | 305 | 63 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 111 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 207 | 277 | 321 | 598 | 115 | 293 | 33 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 429 | 382 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 135 | 9 | 28 | 10 | 188 | 274 | 285 | 559 | 97 | 261 | 31 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 243 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 78 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 156 | 253 | 189 | 442 | 33 | 219 | 28 | 9 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 243 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 78 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 156 | 253 | 189 | 442 | 33 | 219 | 28 | 9 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2299 | 2041 | 386 | 76 | 10 | 23 | 184 | 779 | 43 | 94 | 25 | 189 | 270 | 270 | 540 | 81 | 288 | 34 | 8 | 243 | 51 | -135 | +9 | +0 | +25 | +50 | -5.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 109 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 52 | 220 | 12 | 27 | 7 | 189 | 270 | 272 | 542 | 83 | 286 | 34 | 8 | 243 | 51 | -38 | +3 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 181 PAwOBA .271 → .218 (−53)K% 24.3% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.31% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.47% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 10.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.70% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×0.958 | 19.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.72% | ÷0.966 | ×0.840 | ×1.010 | ×0.958 | 3.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.940 | ×1.010 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.229 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 0.59% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 95, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .271 → .218; ISO .053 → .042; BABIP .262 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 94 PAwOBA .254 → .206 (−48)K% 22.3% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.34% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.77% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 8.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.19% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 2.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.37% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.965 | ×0.982 | 17.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.014 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×0.982 | 1.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.965 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.142 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.11% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .254 → .206; ISO .053 → .037; BABIP .218 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAArkansas Travelers · 429 PAwOBA .320 → .254 (−66)K% 26.8% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.81% | ÷1.041 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.59% | ÷1.046 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 8.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.10% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.49% | ÷1.033 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 20.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.94% | ÷0.983 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 5.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.103 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.27% | ÷0.853 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 2.96% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 121, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .320 → .254; ISO .119 → .105; BABIP .322 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAABuffalo Bisons · 338 PAwOBA .311 → .262 (−49)K% 27.8% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.81% | ÷1.018 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.24% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.48% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.10% | ÷0.960 | ×0.930 | ×1.029 | ×1.003 | 20.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.05% | ÷0.984 | ×0.830 | ×1.029 | ×1.003 | 7.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.149 | ×0.970 | ×1.029 | ×1.003 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.52% | ÷0.951 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.60% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .311 → .262; ISO .147 → .117; BABIP .309 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAABuffalo Bisons · 413 PAwOBA .319 → .247 (−72)K% 33.2% → 41.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.17% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.56% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.42% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.85% | ÷1.071 | ×0.930 | ×1.012 | ×1.018 | 23.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×1.018 | 6.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.018 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.39% | ÷1.081 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.89% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 93, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .319 → .247; ISO .129 → .091; BABIP .347 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 254 PAwOBA .259 → .215 (−44)K% 29.1% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.13% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.66% | ÷0.956 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.76% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.55% | ÷1.023 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 18.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.53% | ÷1.064 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.05% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 2.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.860 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 105, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .259 → .215; ISO .077 → .065; BABIP .295 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 158 PAwOBA .354 → .266 (−89)K% 25.9% → 38.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.95% | ÷0.966 | ×1.420 | — | — | 38.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.03% | ÷0.993 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 8.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.21% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 26.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.29% | ÷0.992 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.988 | 6.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.194 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.28% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 93, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .354 → .266; ISO .131 → .092; BABIP .394 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 322 PAwOBA .289 → .242 (−47)K% 21.4% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.979 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.32% | ÷1.011 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 6.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.35% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×0.998 | 23.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.10% | ÷0.977 | ×0.960 | ×1.022 | ×0.998 | 6.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.005 | ×0.810 | ×1.022 | ×0.998 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.47% | ÷1.147 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.36% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 101, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .289 → .242; ISO .071 → .061; BABIP .318 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .