Luis Ortiz (P, Reading Fightin Phils) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Luis Ortiz P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.16

FIP4.16

K%21.6%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p1620.5%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p580.304

FB (40%)

SI (30%)

CU (10%)

SL (50%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	13	13	50	201	46	9	1	100%	3.8	16.9%	5.3%	11.7%	0.5%	1.80	2.63	—
2015	19	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	13	13	50	201	46	9	1	100%	3.8	22.9%	4.5%	18.4%	0.5%	1.80	2.06	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	91	388	78	23	9	91%	4.1	16.0%	6.6%	9.4%	2.3%	3.08	3.86	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	91	388	78	23	9	91%	4.1	20.1%	5.9%	14.2%	2.3%	3.08	3.43	—
2017	21	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	20	94	392	79	37	12	91%	4.3	16.3%	10.4%	5.9%	2.6%	4.01	4.48	—
2017	21	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	22	20	94	392	79	37	12	91%	4.3	20.2%	9.4%	10.7%	3.1%	4.01	4.26	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	18	102	441	86	27	11	75%	4.2	16.8%	6.1%	10.7%	2.9%	3.97	4.06	+1.0
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	18	102	441	86	27	11	75%	4.2	19.5%	6.1%	13.4%	2.5%	3.97	3.61	+1.6
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	15	71	327	53	35	17	94%	4.4	13.5%	10.3%	3.2%	6.1%	6.50	6.59	-1.3
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	15	71	327	53	35	17	94%	4.4	16.2%	10.7%	5.5%	5.2%	6.50	6.21	-1.0
2021	25	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	28	4	43	188	44	17	7	14%	1.5	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	4.3%	4.60	4.91	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	28	4	43	188	44	17	7	14%	1.5	23.4%	9.0%	14.4%	3.7%	4.60	4.36	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	4	76	316	78	16	8	10%	1.9	22.4%	4.8%	17.6%	3.1%	4.14	3.55	+0.9
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	4	76	316	78	16	8	10%	1.9	24.7%	5.1%	19.6%	2.5%	4.14	3.05	+1.4
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	64	268	61	17	3	2%	1.4	20.4%	5.9%	14.5%	1.1%	4.22	2.75	+1.4
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	64	268	61	17	3	2%	1.4	20.4%	5.9%	14.5%	1.1%	4.22	2.75	+1.4
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	64	268	61	17	3	2%	1.4	22.8%	6.3%	16.4%	1.1%	4.22	2.60	+1.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	6	0	7	31	6	3	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	6.5%	12.15	6.23	-0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	6	0	7	31	6	3	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	6.5%	12.15	6.23	-0.1
2024	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	6	0	7	31	6	3	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	6.5%	12.15	6.55	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	2	34	153	25	16	3	8%	1.4	16.3%	10.5%	5.9%	2.0%	4.76	4.19	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	2.8%	4.16	4.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	PHI	39	0	41	171	36	14	5	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.0%	13.0%	3.1%	4.31	4.40	+0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	PHI	12	0	13	55	12	4	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.0%	13.0%	3.1%	4.31	4.40	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	2	47	207	36	20	5	6%	1.3	17.6%	9.8%	7.7%	2.2%	4.64	4.10	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		155	9	200	885	154	86	21	6%	1.3	17.6%	9.8%	7.7%	2.2%	4.64	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		219	95	597	2552	449	190	76	43%	2.7	17.6%	7.4%	10.2%	3.0%	4.14	4.20	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	32	200	854	150	63	26	43%	2.7	17.6%	7.4%	10.2%	3.0%	4.14	4.20	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Ortiz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	21.6%	7.5%	2.8%	—	4.40	21.1%	13.0%	41	+0.24	—	—	—
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	73
Jose Contreras R 2003 · 3.03 FIP	31	SP-	3.03	24.6%	9.9%	1.4%	.255	4.30	17.9%	9.5%	571	+1.27	2.43	1,279	73
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	72
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	68
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	66
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	66
Brian Sweeney R 2004 · 3.03 FIP	30	SW	3.03	15.9%	3.2%	1.6%	.380	4.26	9.7%	5.1%	56	+1.23	3.03	108	65
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	65
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	65
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	64
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	64
Ross Ohlendorf R 2013 · 4.01 FIP	30	SW	4.01	18.2%	5.3%	3.2%	.265	4.18	23.5%	14.4%	122	+0.17	3.30	617	64
Ryan Jensen R 2005 · 4.35 FIP	29	SW	4.35	15.7%	5.2%	3.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	253	64
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	63
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	63
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	63
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	63
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	63
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	62
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	59	19.9%	8.6%	1.03	4.39
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Aquilino López ('08)	1.0	69	18.5%	9.1%	1.00	3.78
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28