Josh Ockimey
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | AAAPawtucket Red… | 468 | .204/.355/.459 | 25 | 0 | 88 | — | .178/.297/.387 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAABOS | 360 | .225/.362/.416 | 15 | 0 | 60 | — | .176/.278/.282 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA/AAPHI | 483 | .230/.368/.423 | 17 | 3 | 66 | — | .179/.274/.316 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 18 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 130 | 112 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 295 | 232 | 527 | 45 | 276 | 28 | 11 | 252 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 499 | 407 | 92 | 25 | 1 | 18 | 88 | 129 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 367 | 425 | 793 | 199 | 284 | 26 | 18 | 357 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 121 | 103 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 272 | 375 | 427 | 802 | 155 | 368 | 27 | 14 | 359 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 425 | 349 | 96 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 66 | 110 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 275 | 395 | 438 | 833 | 163 | 362 | 26 | 16 | 370 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 105 | 93 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 305 | 398 | 703 | 183 | 294 | 35 | 10 | 316 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 376 | 311 | 79 | 19 | 2 | 15 | 59 | 112 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 254 | 375 | 473 | 847 | 219 | 339 | 30 | 16 | 371 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 75 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 284 | 250 | 534 | 78 | 263 | 35 | 12 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 468 | 377 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 25 | 82 | 139 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 204 | 355 | 459 | 814 | 255 | 241 | 30 | 18 | 360 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 360 | 293 | 66 | 11 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 117 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 362 | 416 | 779 | 191 | 309 | 32 | 17 | 349 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 210 | 178 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 317 | 393 | 711 | 191 | 246 | 28 | 13 | 318 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 273 | 217 | 55 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 56 | 76 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 253 | 407 | 447 | 854 | 194 | 348 | 28 | 21 | 385 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 130 | 117 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 53 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 128 | 209 | 162 | 372 | 34 | 223 | 41 | 7 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 499 | 442 | 82 | 22 | 1 | 15 | 53 | 167 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 186 | 277 | 342 | 619 | 156 | 256 | 33 | 11 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 121 | 109 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 308 | 349 | 657 | 110 | 352 | 34 | 9 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 425 | 380 | 82 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 163 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 216 | 287 | 347 | 634 | 132 | 324 | 38 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 105 | 97 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 165 | 229 | 268 | 497 | 103 | 268 | 43 | 7 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 376 | 331 | 71 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 139 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 215 | 299 | 366 | 665 | 151 | 316 | 37 | 10 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 468 | 398 | 71 | 16 | 2 | 21 | 61 | 167 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 178 | 297 | 387 | 684 | 209 | 228 | 36 | 13 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 360 | 312 | 55 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 138 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 278 | 282 | 560 | 106 | 269 | 38 | 12 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 210 | 188 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 149 | 231 | 271 | 502 | 122 | 205 | 34 | 9 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 273 | 237 | 48 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 92 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 308 | 350 | 658 | 148 | 297 | 34 | 13 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 130 | 117 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 53 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 128 | 209 | 162 | 372 | 34 | 231 | 41 | 7 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 130 | 112 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 295 | 232 | 527 | 45 | 276 | 28 | 11 | 252 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 499 | 442 | 82 | 22 | 1 | 15 | 53 | 167 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 186 | 277 | 342 | 619 | 156 | 257 | 33 | 11 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 499 | 407 | 92 | 25 | 1 | 18 | 88 | 129 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 367 | 425 | 793 | 199 | 284 | 26 | 18 | 357 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 546 | 489 | 108 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 46 | 204 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 221 | 292 | 348 | 639 | 127 | 342 | 37 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 546 | 452 | 124 | 27 | 2 | 14 | 83 | 143 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 274 | 390 | 436 | 826 | 162 | 363 | 26 | 15 | 367 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 556 | 493 | 100 | 20 | 2 | 15 | 54 | 212 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 285 | 343 | 628 | 140 | 312 | 38 | 10 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 556 | 468 | 110 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 79 | 175 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 349 | 427 | 776 | 192 | 320 | 31 | 14 | 345 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 468 | 398 | 71 | 16 | 2 | 21 | 61 | 167 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 178 | 297 | 387 | 684 | 209 | 235 | 36 | 13 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA RAW | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 468 | 377 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 25 | 82 | 139 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 204 | 355 | 459 | 814 | 255 | 241 | 30 | 18 | 360 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 360 | 312 | 55 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 138 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 278 | 282 | 560 | 106 | 276 | 38 | 12 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA RAW | Worcester Red Sox | — | 360 | 293 | 66 | 11 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 117 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 362 | 416 | 779 | 191 | 309 | 32 | 17 | 349 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 425 | 77 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 54 | 164 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 181 | 277 | 318 | 594 | 136 | 259 | 34 | 11 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 483 | 395 | 91 | 21 | 2 | 17 | 84 | 134 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 368 | 423 | 791 | 192 | 301 | 28 | 17 | 356 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 130 | 117 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 53 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 128 | 209 | 162 | 372 | 34 | 223 | 41 | 7 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 499 | 440 | 82 | 22 | 1 | 15 | 53 | 167 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 186 | 277 | 343 | 620 | 157 | 256 | 33 | 11 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 546 | 492 | 108 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 46 | 204 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 220 | 292 | 346 | 637 | 126 | 330 | 37 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 556 | 494 | 100 | 20 | 2 | 15 | 54 | 212 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 285 | 342 | 628 | 140 | 306 | 38 | 10 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 468 | 398 | 71 | 16 | 2 | 21 | 61 | 167 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 178 | 297 | 387 | 684 | 209 | 228 | 36 | 13 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 360 | 313 | 55 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 138 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 278 | 281 | 559 | 105 | 269 | 38 | 12 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 424 | 77 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 54 | 164 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 182 | 277 | 318 | 595 | 137 | 257 | 34 | 11 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3042 | 2676 | 508 | 109 | 10 | 83 | 320 | 1105 | 21 | 9 | 9 | 190 | 281 | 331 | 612 | 141 | 281 | 36 | 11 | 273 | 71 | -104 | -2 | +0 | -54 | +66 | -9.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 108 | 23 | 2 | 18 | 68 | 236 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 189 | 279 | 330 | 609 | 142 | 279 | 36 | 10 | 273 | 71 | -22 | -0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAReading Fightin Phils · 273 PAwOBA .375 → .291 (−83)K% 27.8% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.84% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.15% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 13.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.70% | ÷1.069 | ×0.970 | ×0.971 | ×0.978 | 19.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.22% | ÷0.930 | ×0.860 | ×0.971 | ×0.978 | 8.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.971 | ×0.978 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.38% | ÷1.051 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 4.63% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 114, 2B 86, 3B 90, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .375 → .291; ISO .194 → .156; BABIP .348 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 210 PAwOBA .313 → .232 (−81)K% 27.6% → 34.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.62% | ÷0.970 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.067 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.83% | ÷1.007 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 13.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 5.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.039 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 4.51% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 94, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .313 → .232; ISO .191 → .135; BABIP .246 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 360 PAwOBA .344 → .257 (−87)K% 32.5% → 38.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.50% | ÷1.021 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.22% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 12.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.28% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×0.957 | ×1.018 | 21.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | ×1.018 | 5.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.52% | ÷1.318 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.61% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 95, 2B 98, 3B 105, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .344 → .257; ISO .191 → .115; BABIP .309 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 468 PAwOBA .353 → .299 (−53)K% 29.7% → 35.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.70% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.31% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 13.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.87% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×0.955 | ×1.048 | 13.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×1.048 | 6.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.955 | ×1.048 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.50% | ÷1.038 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 8.91% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 91, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .353 → .299; ISO .255 → .219; BABIP .241 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 376 PAwOBA .366 → .293 (−73)K% 29.8% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.79% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.43% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 10.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.61% | ÷1.001 | ×0.970 | ×1.014 | ×1.027 | 21.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.55% | ÷1.052 | ×0.860 | ×1.014 | ×1.027 | 8.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.014 | ×1.027 | 0.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.54% | ÷1.166 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 5.18% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .366 → .293; ISO .219 → .160; BABIP .339 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 105 PAwOBA .307 → .229 (−79)K% 35.2% → 42.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.24% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 42.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.48% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 7.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.987 | ×1.050 | 22.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.067 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×1.050 | 2.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.93% | ÷1.342 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 5.87% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 100, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .307 → .229; ISO .183 → .115; BABIP .294 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Salem Red Sox · 425 PAwOBA .359 → .283 (−76)K% 25.9% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.88% | ÷0.958 | ×1.420 | — | — | 38.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.41% | ÷1.043 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 8.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.36% | ÷1.042 | ×0.940 | ×1.002 | ×1.012 | 24.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.37% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×1.002 | ×1.012 | 7.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷0.956 | ×0.800 | ×1.002 | ×1.012 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.60% | ÷0.956 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 4.39% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 95, 3B 91, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .359 → .283; ISO .163 → .140; BABIP .362 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 121 PAwOBA .350 → .296 (−54)K% 27.3% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.22% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 9.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.71% | ÷0.984 | ×0.970 | ×0.997 | ×1.042 | 26.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.085 | ×0.860 | ×0.997 | ×1.042 | 8.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.950 | ×0.997 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.020 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 3.41% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 117, 3B 102, K 95, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .350 → .296; ISO .155 → .123; BABIP .368 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .