Josh Morgan
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | AASEA | 275 | .246/.359/.401 | 9 | 1 | 77 | — | .216/.297/.347 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAASEA | 73 | .220/.352/.373 | 2 | 0 | 70 | — | .190/.282/.286 |
| 2023 | 27 | AASEA | 323 | .226/.305/.372 | 9 | 2 | 55 | — | .191/.249/.315 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | — | 141 | 113 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 336 | 468 | 372 | 840 | 35 | 380 | 9 | 13 | 395 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 416 | 351 | 101 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 53 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 288 | 387 | 362 | 749 | 74 | 330 | 13 | 11 | 340 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 533 | 470 | 141 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 44 | 61 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 300 | 372 | 394 | 766 | 94 | 328 | 11 | 8 | 342 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 445 | 408 | 110 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 54 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 270 | 321 | 380 | 701 | 110 | 295 | 12 | 6 | 311 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 33 | 28 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 429 | 515 | 679 | 1.194 | 250 | 435 | 9 | 15 | 518 | 236 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 332 | 294 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 49 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 231 | 307 | 316 | 623 | 85 | 262 | 15 | 8 | 282 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | INTL | Auckland Tuatara | — | 120 | 103 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 330 | 420 | 505 | 925 | 175 | 341 | 10 | 12 | 408 | 162 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 275 | 232 | 57 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 246 | 359 | 401 | 760 | 155 | 284 | 20 | 12 | 344 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 73 | 59 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 352 | 373 | 725 | 153 | 250 | 21 | 16 | 324 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 323 | 288 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 80 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 305 | 372 | 677 | 146 | 279 | 25 | 8 | 304 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 141 | 120 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 275 | 383 | 308 | 691 | 33 | 315 | 13 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 416 | 366 | 99 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 74 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 270 | 346 | 331 | 676 | 60 | 319 | 18 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 533 | 483 | 131 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 88 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 271 | 328 | 342 | 670 | 70 | 310 | 17 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 445 | 417 | 101 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 73 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 242 | 280 | 338 | 618 | 96 | 274 | 16 | 4 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 332 | 303 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 65 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 201 | 258 | 267 | 525 | 66 | 238 | 20 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 275 | 245 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 216 | 297 | 347 | 644 | 131 | 257 | 24 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 73 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 282 | 286 | 567 | 95 | 236 | 25 | 11 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 323 | 298 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 94 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 191 | 249 | 315 | 565 | 124 | 245 | 29 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 141 | 120 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 275 | 383 | 308 | 691 | 33 | 327 | 13 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Rangers | — | 141 | 113 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 336 | 468 | 372 | 840 | 35 | 380 | 9 | 13 | 395 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 416 | 366 | 99 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 74 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 270 | 346 | 331 | 676 | 60 | 332 | 18 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 416 | 351 | 101 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 53 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 288 | 387 | 362 | 749 | 74 | 330 | 13 | 11 | 340 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 533 | 483 | 131 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 88 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 271 | 328 | 342 | 670 | 70 | 317 | 17 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A+ RAW | High Desert Mavericks | — | 533 | 470 | 141 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 44 | 61 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 300 | 372 | 394 | 766 | 94 | 328 | 11 | 8 | 342 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 478 | 449 | 109 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 79 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 243 | 280 | 343 | 623 | 100 | 280 | 17 | 4 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 478 | 436 | 122 | 22 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 57 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 280 | 335 | 399 | 734 | 119 | 304 | 12 | 6 | 325 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 332 | 303 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 65 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 201 | 258 | 267 | 525 | 66 | 244 | 20 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 332 | 294 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 49 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 231 | 307 | 316 | 623 | 85 | 262 | 15 | 8 | 282 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | INTL MLE | Auckland Tuatara | — | 120 | 103 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 330 | 420 | 505 | 925 | 175 | 341 | 10 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | INTL RAW | Auckland Tuatara | — | 120 | 103 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 330 | 420 | 505 | 925 | 175 | 341 | 10 | 12 | 408 | 162 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 275 | 245 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 216 | 297 | 347 | 644 | 131 | 262 | 24 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 275 | 232 | 57 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 246 | 359 | 401 | 760 | 155 | 284 | 20 | 12 | 344 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 73 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 282 | 286 | 567 | 95 | 239 | 25 | 11 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 73 | 59 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 352 | 373 | 725 | 153 | 250 | 21 | 16 | 324 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 323 | 298 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 94 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 191 | 249 | 315 | 565 | 124 | 247 | 29 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 323 | 288 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 80 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 305 | 372 | 677 | 146 | 279 | 25 | 8 | 304 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 141 | 119 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 277 | 383 | 311 | 694 | 34 | 315 | 13 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 416 | 371 | 99 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 74 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 267 | 346 | 326 | 672 | 59 | 319 | 18 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 533 | 487 | 131 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 88 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 269 | 328 | 339 | 667 | 70 | 310 | 17 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 478 | 452 | 109 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 79 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 241 | 280 | 341 | 620 | 100 | 274 | 17 | 4 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 332 | 306 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 65 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 199 | 258 | 265 | 522 | 65 | 238 | 20 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 275 | 245 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 216 | 297 | 347 | 644 | 131 | 257 | 24 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 73 | 65 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 282 | 277 | 559 | 92 | 236 | 25 | 11 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 323 | 297 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 94 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 192 | 249 | 316 | 566 | 125 | 245 | 29 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2691 | 2430 | 589 | 92 | 9 | 36 | 169 | 516 | 56 | 24 | 14 | 242 | 307 | 332 | 639 | 90 | 290 | 19 | 6 | 264 | 65 | -114 | -1 | +0 | +10 | +58 | -4.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 142 | 22 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 125 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 242 | 307 | 332 | 639 | 90 | 290 | 19 | 6 | 264 | 65 | -27 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAArkansas Travelers · 323 PAwOBA .298 → .249 (−50)K% 24.8% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.77% | ÷1.041 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.36% | ÷1.046 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 5.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.86% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.19% | ÷1.033 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | ×0.968 | 17.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.983 | ×0.840 | ×1.034 | ×0.968 | 5.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.48% | ÷1.103 | ×0.940 | ×1.034 | ×0.968 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.33% | ÷0.853 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 3.93% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 121, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .298 → .249; ISO .146 → .129; BABIP .279 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 73 PAwOBA .325 → .272 (−53)K% 20.5% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.55% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.44% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 10.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.013 | ×0.930 | ×1.019 | ×1.003 | 17.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷0.839 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×1.003 | 6.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.144 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.79% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 68, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .325 → .272; ISO .153 → .123; BABIP .250 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAArkansas Travelers · 275 PAwOBA .337 → .282 (−55)K% 20.4% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.36% | ÷1.013 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷1.144 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 7.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.91% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.16% | ÷0.999 | ×0.940 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 20.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.11% | ÷0.975 | ×0.870 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 4.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.11% | ÷0.892 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.42% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 103, BB 129 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .337 → .282; ISO .155 → .138; BABIP .284 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 332 PAwOBA .277 → .237 (−40)K% 14.8% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.76% | ÷0.922 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.53% | ÷1.021 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.51% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.41% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.027 | 18.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.993 | ×0.840 | ×0.972 | ×1.027 | 4.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.972 | ×1.027 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.22% | ÷1.088 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.92% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 98, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 84, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .277 → .237; ISO .085 → .069; BABIP .262 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Down East Wood Ducks · 445 PAwOBA .306 → .269 (−36)K% 12.1% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.13% | ÷1.045 | ×1.420 | — | — | 16.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.84% | ÷0.989 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 3.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.60% | ÷1.034 | ×0.940 | ×1.009 | ×1.012 | 20.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.93% | ÷0.905 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.012 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×1.009 | ×1.012 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷0.995 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 1.55% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 109, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .306 → .269; ISO .110 → .101; BABIP .295 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+High Desert Mavericks · 533 PAwOBA .337 → .297 (−40)K% 11.4% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.44% | ÷0.931 | ×1.340 | — | — | 16.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.07% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 5.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.88% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.63% | ÷0.996 | ×0.910 | ×1.039 | ×1.027 | 26.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.075 | ×0.820 | ×1.039 | ×1.027 | 3.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷1.037 | ×0.760 | ×1.039 | ×1.027 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.71% | ÷1.194 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 1.35% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 99, 2B 115, 3B 107, K 86, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .337 → .297; ISO .094 → .074; BABIP .328 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AHickory Crawdads · 416 PAwOBA .334 → .296 (−38)K% 12.7% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.74% | ÷0.967 | ×1.340 | — | — | 17.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.82% | ÷1.042 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 7.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.88% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 2.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.52% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×1.030 | 27.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.03% | ÷0.971 | ×0.820 | ×1.019 | ×1.030 | 4.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷0.910 | ×0.940 | ×1.019 | ×1.030 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.229 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 0.69% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 96, 2B 94, 3B 82, K 93, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .334 → .296; ISO .074 → .063; BABIP .330 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKAZL Rangers · 141 PAwOBA .386 → .303 (−83)K% 9.2% → 13.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 13.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.38% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 4.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.012 | ×1.008 | 29.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.012 | ×1.008 | 1.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.012 | ×1.008 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .386 → .303; ISO .035 → .027; BABIP .380 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .