Luke Dykstra
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | ARome Braves | 342 | .304/.335/.363 | 0 | 7 | 74 | — | .281/.309/.333 |
| 2017 | 21 | A+STL | 294 | .250/.307/.306 | 2 | 4 | 62 | — | .240/.290/.295 |
| 2018 | 22 | AASTL | 161 | .225/.269/.258 | 0 | 0 | 34 | — | .216/.250/.248 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 18 | ROK | GCL Braves | — | 166 | 149 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 262 | 321 | 376 | 697 | 114 | 268 | 7 | 5 | 307 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A | Rome Braves | — | 100 | 92 | 32 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 348 | 381 | 478 | 860 | 130 | 364 | 5 | 3 | 370 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Danville Braves | — | 141 | 131 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 298 | 338 | 382 | 720 | 84 | 322 | 8 | 4 | 320 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Rome Braves | — | 342 | 322 | 98 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 304 | 335 | 363 | 699 | 59 | 333 | 9 | 2 | 312 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 294 | 268 | 67 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 250 | 307 | 306 | 613 | 56 | 275 | 11 | 5 | 279 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 161 | 151 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 269 | 258 | 527 | 33 | 268 | 16 | 4 | 242 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 166 | 152 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 224 | 272 | 322 | 594 | 99 | 224 | 10 | 4 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 100 | 93 | 32 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 344 | 371 | 473 | 844 | 129 | 352 | 7 | 2 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 141 | 133 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 248 | 281 | 316 | 596 | 68 | 274 | 11 | 2 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 342 | 324 | 91 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 281 | 309 | 333 | 642 | 52 | 312 | 13 | 1 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 294 | 271 | 65 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 240 | 290 | 295 | 585 | 55 | 274 | 15 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 161 | 153 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 250 | 248 | 498 | 33 | 260 | 19 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 166 | 152 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 224 | 272 | 322 | 594 | 99 | 235 | 10 | 4 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Braves | — | 166 | 149 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 262 | 321 | 376 | 697 | 114 | 268 | 7 | 5 | 307 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 241 | 226 | 65 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 288 | 318 | 381 | 698 | 93 | 317 | 10 | 2 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 241 | 223 | 71 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 318 | 356 | 422 | 777 | 103 | 340 | 7 | 3 | 341 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 342 | 324 | 91 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 281 | 309 | 333 | 642 | 52 | 320 | 13 | 1 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A RAW | Rome Braves | — | 342 | 322 | 98 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 304 | 335 | 363 | 699 | 59 | 333 | 9 | 2 | 312 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 294 | 271 | 65 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 240 | 290 | 295 | 585 | 55 | 279 | 15 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 294 | 268 | 67 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 250 | 307 | 306 | 613 | 56 | 275 | 11 | 5 | 279 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 161 | 153 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 250 | 248 | 498 | 33 | 266 | 19 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA RAW | Springfield Cardinals | — | 161 | 151 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 269 | 258 | 527 | 33 | 268 | 16 | 4 | 242 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 166 | 155 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 219 | 272 | 316 | 588 | 97 | 224 | 10 | 4 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 241 | 229 | 65 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 284 | 318 | 376 | 693 | 92 | 306 | 10 | 2 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 342 | 326 | 91 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 279 | 309 | 331 | 640 | 52 | 312 | 13 | 1 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 294 | 273 | 65 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 238 | 290 | 293 | 583 | 55 | 274 | 15 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 161 | 153 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 250 | 248 | 498 | 33 | 260 | 19 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1204 | 1126 | 288 | 55 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 158 | 28 | 21 | 9 | 256 | 293 | 321 | 613 | 65 | 291 | 13 | 3 | 265 | 65 | -50 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +26 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 608 | 156 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 85 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 257 | 294 | 322 | 616 | 66 | 292 | 13 | 3 | 265 | 65 | -27 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AASpringfield Cardinals · 161 PAwOBA .238 → .218 (−19)K% 15.5% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.53% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 3.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.02% | ÷1.014 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 22.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.97% | ÷0.973 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 3.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.215 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .238 → .218; ISO .033 → .030; BABIP .268 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 294 PAwOBA .274 → .260 (−13)K% 10.9% → 15.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.88% | ÷1.007 | ×1.420 | — | — | 15.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷0.990 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 3.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.72% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 2.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.73% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 23.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.81% | ÷0.970 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 4.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.85% | ÷0.824 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.92% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .274 → .260; ISO .056 → .058; BABIP .275 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ARome Braves · 342 PAwOBA .306 → .277 (−29)K% 9.1% → 12.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.06% | ÷0.961 | ×1.340 | — | — | 12.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.75% | ÷1.050 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 1.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 2.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.49% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×1.046 | ×1.015 | 25.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.84% | ÷0.953 | ×0.820 | ×1.046 | ×1.015 | 5.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.041 | ×0.940 | ×1.046 | ×1.015 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.965 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 108, K 92, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .306 → .277; ISO .059 → .054; BABIP .333 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKDanville Braves · 141 PAwOBA .314 → .258 (−56)K% 7.8% → 11.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.80% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 11.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.995 | 2.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.995 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 21.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 5.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .314 → .258; ISO .084 → .065; BABIP .322 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ARome Braves · 100 PAwOBA .364 → .350 (−14)K% 5.0% → 7.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.00% | ÷0.932 | ×1.340 | — | — | 7.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.00% | ÷1.077 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 1.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 1.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 23.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.49% | ÷0.915 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 11.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.097 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 105, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 86, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .364 → .350; ISO .130 → .128; BABIP .364 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKGCL Braves · 166 PAwOBA .305 → .247 (−58)K% 7.2% → 10.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.23% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 10.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 3.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.41% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 16.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 6.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.15% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .305 → .247; ISO .114 → .090; BABIP .268 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).