Tommy Doyle — OGILVIE

Tommy Doyle P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 31 RHP 6'6" / 244 lbs AAA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 55 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.67

K%24.1%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p7829.7%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.368

CT+4.3

FB-7.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	20	0	21	105	18	10	2	0%	1.1	11.7%	11.9%	-0.2%	2.7%	5.14	5.09	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	20	0	21	105	18	10	2	0%	1.1	17.1%	9.5%	7.6%	1.9%	5.14	4.05	—
2018	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	52	0	58	243	66	12	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	5.8%	14.3%	1.0%	2.31	2.67	—
2018	22	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	52	0	58	243	66	12	2	0%	1.1	27.2%	4.9%	22.2%	0.8%	2.31	1.90	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	38	0	36	146	48	13	4	0%	0.9	25.3%	10.2%	15.1%	2.7%	3.25	3.73	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	Lancaster JetHawks	38	0	36	146	48	13	4	0%	0.9	32.9%	8.9%	24.0%	2.7%	3.25	2.96	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	3	0	2	17	2	4	0	0%	0.8	11.8%	23.5%	-11.8%	0.0%	23.14	5.09	-0.0
2020	24	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	3	0	2	17	2	4	0	0%	0.8	11.8%	23.5%	-11.8%	0.0%	23.14	6.53	-0.1
2021	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	10	0	9	46	8	3	4	0%	0.9	17.4%	6.5%	10.9%	8.7%	9.64	7.23	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	10	0	9	46	8	3	4	0%	0.9	17.4%	6.5%	10.9%	8.7%	9.64	7.92	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	61	257	59	29	10	0%	1.3	20.7%	10.7%	10.1%	3.7%	4.75	4.75	-0.1
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	61	257	59	29	10	0%	1.3	23.0%	11.3%	11.7%	3.9%	4.75	4.73	-0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	41	178	45	18	5	3%	1.3	21.4%	8.8%	12.5%	3.3%	3.48	4.22	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	41	178	45	18	5	3%	1.3	21.4%	8.8%	12.5%	3.3%	3.48	4.22	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	41	178	45	18	5	3%	1.3	25.3%	10.1%	15.2%	2.8%	3.48	3.80	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	0	26	120	20	17	5	0%	1.4	16.7%	14.2%	2.5%	4.2%	8.31	6.02	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	ATL	52	0	55	232	56	26	8	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.2%	12.9%	3.3%	4.70	4.67	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	ATL	49	0	51	216	50	25	8	0%	1.0	23.3%	11.5%	11.8%	3.5%	4.80	4.89	-0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	ATL	45	0	47	198	45	23	7	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.7%	10.7%	3.7%	4.98	5.13	-0.3
2030	34	MLB MLE	ATL	41	0	43	181	39	22	7	0%	1.0	21.6%	12.1%	9.5%	4.0%	5.21	5.39	-0.4
2028	32	MLB CTX	ATL	18	0	19	80	19	9	3	0%	1.1	23.3%	11.5%	11.8%	3.5%	4.80	4.89	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	ATL	25	0	26	110	25	13	4	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.7%	10.7%	3.7%	4.98	5.13	-0.2
2030	34	MLB CTX	ATL	21	0	22	93	20	11	4	0%	1.0	21.6%	12.1%	9.5%	4.0%	5.21	5.39	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	0	92	400	83	50	16	0%	1.1	20.7%	12.5%	8.2%	3.9%	5.93	5.07	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		176	0	200	867	180	108	35	0%	1.1	20.7%	12.5%	8.2%	3.9%	5.93	5.07	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		204	1	229	992	199	92	29	0%	1.1	20.1%	9.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.09	4.15	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	1	200	866	174	80	25	0%	1.1	20.1%	9.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.09	4.15	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tommy Doyle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	24.1%	11.2%	3.3%	—	5.12	22.5%	10.7%	141	+0.45	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	87
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	79
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	78
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	77
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	77
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	77
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	77
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	76
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	76
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	75
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	75
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	75
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	74
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	74
Grant Balfour R 2009 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	23.9%	11.4%	2.1%	.293	3.20	24.8%	16.8%	192	-0.47	2.04	533	73
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	73
Simon Castro R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	29	SU	3.99	28.3%	10.3%	3.6%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	185	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	44	22.2%	11.9%	1.42	5.30
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43