Tommy Doyle
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 30
RHP
6'6" / 244 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.91
FIP4.97
K%23.5%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%10.6%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p7829.7%
K%
p1817.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.368
CT+4.3
FB-7.7
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 20 | 0 | 21 | 105 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.7% | 11.9% | -0.2% | 2.7% | 5.14 | 5.09 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 20 | 0 | 21 | 105 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 5.14 | 4.05 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 52 | 0 | 58 | 243 | 66 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 0.9% | 2.31 | 2.62 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 52 | 0 | 58 | 243 | 66 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 4.9% | 22.2% | 0.8% | 2.31 | 1.90 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 38 | 0 | 36 | 146 | 48 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.3% | 10.2% | 15.1% | 2.2% | 3.25 | 3.47 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 38 | 0 | 36 | 146 | 48 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.9% | 8.9% | 24.0% | 2.7% | 3.25 | 2.96 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 11.8% | 23.5% | -11.8% | 0.0% | 23.14 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 11.8% | 23.5% | -11.8% | 0.0% | 23.14 | 6.53 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 10 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.4% | 6.5% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 9.64 | 7.23 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 10 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.4% | 6.5% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 9.64 | 7.92 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 59 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.0% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 59 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 4.75 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 41 | 178 | 45 | 18 | 5 | 3% | 1.3 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 3.48 | 4.42 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 41 | 178 | 45 | 18 | 5 | 3% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 3.48 | 3.80 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 229 | 54 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 49 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 44 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 13.1% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 5.18 | 5.33 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 38 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 5.39 | 5.56 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 13.1% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 5.18 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 26 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 5.39 | 5.56 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 88 | 0 | 99 | 430 | 88 | 58 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 6.03 | 5.21 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 177 | 0 | 200 | 865 | 177 | 117 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 6.03 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
| Career | — | 204 | 1 | 229 | 992 | 201 | 97 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.11 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 1 | 200 | 866 | 176 | 85 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tommy Doyle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.97 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 3.3% | — | 5.33 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 140 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 86 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 83 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 82 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 82 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 81 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 78 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 76 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.71 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.90 | 3.62 | 164 | 76 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 75 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 75 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.54 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.28 | 4.26 | 258 | 75 |
| Roman Mendez R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.58 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 3.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 230 | 75 |
| Leonel Campos R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 25.7% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 168 | 73 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.70 | 19.9% | 14.1% | 4.5% | .261 | 3.75 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 101 | -1.95 | 2.59 | 309 | 73 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 73 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.00 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .288 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 144 | -0.34 | 3.03 | 256 | 73 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.90 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .282 | 3.17 | 28.4% | 19.9% | 104 | -0.73 | 2.33 | 445 | 72 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.86 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .288 | 5.03 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 20 | +1.17 | 2.55 | 266 | 72 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 22.5% | 13.1% | 1.41 | 5.11 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |