Drew Carlton projections, WAR, contract

Drew Carlton P San Diego Padres

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.19

FIP4.19

K%23.0%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p3222.8%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

FB+3.8

SL-1.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	11	44	9	1	0	0%	1.6	20.5%	2.3%	18.2%	0.0%	0.82	1.66	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	11	44	9	1	0	0%	1.6	20.5%	2.3%	18.2%	0.0%	0.82	1.74	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	68	270	68	11	0	0%	1.7	19.4%	5.1%	14.3%	0.0%	2.26	2.10	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	68	270	68	11	0	0%	1.7	25.2%	4.1%	21.1%	0.0%	2.26	1.58	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	45	0	68	266	65	17	3	0%	1.5	19.8%	7.0%	12.8%	1.0%	1.46	2.89	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	45	0	68	266	65	17	3	0%	1.5	24.4%	6.4%	18.0%	1.1%	1.46	2.51	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	2	56	227	50	14	6	5%	1.5	20.7%	5.0%	15.7%	2.5%	3.05	3.37	+0.8
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	2	56	227	50	14	6	5%	1.5	22.0%	6.2%	15.9%	2.6%	3.05	3.46	+0.7
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	2	67	277	74	10	10	4%	1.3	24.1%	4.3%	19.8%	3.9%	4.43	3.77	+0.6
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	2	67	277	74	10	10	4%	1.3	26.7%	3.6%	23.1%	3.6%	4.43	3.28	+1.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	1	41	164	41	11	3	4%	1.5	23.0%	6.7%	16.3%	1.9%	3.54	3.06	+0.7
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	1	41	164	41	11	3	4%	1.5	23.0%	6.7%	16.3%	1.9%	3.54	3.06	+0.7
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	1	41	164	41	11	3	4%	1.5	25.0%	6.7%	18.3%	1.8%	3.54	2.85	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	0	33	136	26	10	4	0%	1.6	19.1%	7.4%	11.8%	2.9%	3.82	4.01	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.0%	8.2%	14.8%	2.9%	4.19	4.19	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SD	20	0	21	88	20	8	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	8.7%	13.7%	3.2%	4.34	4.43	+0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	SD	19	0	20	84	19	7	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	8.7%	13.7%	3.2%	4.34	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	0	53	219	45	17	7	0%	1.4	20.3%	7.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.01	4.04	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		147	0	200	832	171	64	27	0%	1.4	20.3%	7.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.01	4.04	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		207	5	310	1248	265	68	23	2%	1.5	21.3%	5.4%	15.8%	1.8%	2.81	2.98	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	3	200	804	171	44	15	2%	1.5	21.3%	5.4%	15.8%	1.8%	2.81	2.98	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Carlton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	23.0%	8.2%	2.9%	—	4.43	22.3%	13.7%	21	+0.24	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	82
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	80
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	79
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	77
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	76
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	76
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	75
Mike Fyhrie R 2000 · 3.08 FIP	30	SU	3.08	19.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.309	3.87	13.7%	4.4%	69	+0.79	3.08	173	75
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	74
Oliver Drake R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	24.7%	9.2%	2.3%	.356	3.18	30.1%	22.1%	127	-0.24	2.26	317	74
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	74
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	74
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	74
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	73
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	73
Manny Acosta R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	22.5%	7.4%	2.9%	.321	4.49	21.3%	10.2%	47	+0.74	3.08	350	73
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	73
Tyler Sturdevant R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	30	SU	3.44	23.8%	6.5%	2.8%	.323	4.48	13.5%	6.8%	60	+1.04	3.44	149	72
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	72
Jose De La Torre R 2016 · 3.12 FIP	30	SU	3.12	22.0%	8.0%	1.6%	.248	2.64	20.5%	14.7%	19	-0.48	2.64	141	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	25	21.2%	8.0%	1.16	4.07
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Blaine Hardy ('21)	1.5	48	18.5%	8.3%	0.99	3.78
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
David Carpenter ('19)	1.1	43	23.5%	8.4%	0.92	3.69