Brandon Bielak

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 221 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	32	13	96	5.79	5.19	14.4%	10.0%	-0.7	K 12.8% · BB 9.3% · FIP 5.26
2025	29	AAAARI	2	2	10	2.79	6.31	14.7%	14.7%	—	K 14.7% · BB 14.7% · FIP 6.95
2026	30	AAAHOU	9	3	25	6.57	5.41	10.2%	8.3%	—	K 8.8% · BB 7.5% · FIP 5.55
2027PROJ	31	MLBHOU	7	7	51	5.28	5.50	11.8%	9.2%	-0.3
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBHOU	2	2	17	5.57	5.76	11.1%	9.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBHOU	4	4	24	5.85	6.04	10.2%	10.0%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo14

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsJuan Omar Espinoza (age 31) · Scott McGregor (age 28) · Wes Obermueller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 121

ERA5.28

FIP5.50

K%11.8%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%2.7%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL4540

CMD4540

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p1017.2%

p1010.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.390

SI (24%)

CU (10%)

CH (28%)

SL-2.1 (15%)

FB-4.1 (47%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	2	0	4	17	5	1	0	0%	2.2	29.4%	5.9%	23.5%	0.0%	0.00	1.36	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	2	0	4	17	5	1	0	0%	2.2	29.4%	5.9%	23.5%	0.0%	0.00	1.48	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	117	470	131	39	6	68%	4.7	21.9%	9.3%	12.6%	1.5%	2.23	3.26	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	117	470	131	39	6	68%	4.7	27.9%	8.3%	19.6%	1.3%	2.23	2.53	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	122	500	119	50	13	87%	5.3	20.5%	10.6%	9.8%	3.0%	4.22	4.36	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	122	500	119	50	13	87%	5.3	23.8%	10.0%	13.8%	2.6%	4.22	3.77	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	12	6	32	148	26	17	9	50%	2.7	17.6%	11.5%	6.1%	6.3%	6.75	6.50	-0.6
2020	24	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	12	6	32	148	26	17	9	50%	2.7	17.6%	11.5%	6.1%	6.1%	6.75	6.72	-0.7
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	5	67	291	68	25	5	15%	2.0	22.5%	8.7%	13.8%	1.8%	3.88	3.27	+1.0
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	5	67	291	68	25	5	15%	2.0	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	1.7%	3.88	3.16	+1.1
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	14	101	442	98	47	7	50%	3.6	19.8%	11.1%	8.7%	1.8%	3.21	3.83	+1.3
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	14	101	442	98	47	7	50%	3.6	22.2%	10.6%	11.5%	1.6%	3.21	3.46	+1.8
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	135	597	125	55	18	86%	4.8	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	3.3%	4.40	4.39	+0.8
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	135	597	125	55	18	86%	4.8	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.40	4.20	+1.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	13	96	439	63	44	15	41%	3.0	12.8%	9.3%	3.5%	3.8%	5.79	5.26	-0.8
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	13	96	439	63	44	15	41%	3.0	12.8%	9.3%	3.5%	3.8%	5.79	5.26	-0.8
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	13	96	439	63	44	15	41%	3.0	14.4%	10.0%	4.3%	3.4%	5.79	5.19	-0.7
2025	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	2	2	10	34	5	5	2	100%	4.8	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	5.9%	2.79	6.95	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	2	2	10	34	5	5	2	100%	4.8	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	5.9%	2.79	6.95	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	2	2	10	34	5	5	2	100%	4.8	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	5.9%	2.79	6.31	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	9	3	25	108	11	9	4	33%	2.7	8.8%	7.5%	1.3%	4.1%	6.57	5.55	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	9	3	25	108	11	9	4	33%	2.7	8.8%	7.5%	1.3%	4.1%	6.57	5.55	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	9	3	25	108	11	9	4	33%	2.7	10.2%	8.3%	1.9%	3.7%	6.57	5.41	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			76	21	204	913	160	91	33	28%	2.7	17.5%	10.0%	7.6%	3.6%	4.63	4.97	-1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	HOU	7	7	51	215	26	20	7	100%	7.3	11.8%	9.2%	2.7%	3.4%	5.28	5.50	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	HOU	7	7	47	200	22	19	7	100%	6.8	11.1%	9.6%	1.5%	3.6%	5.57	5.76	-0.4
2029	33	MLB MLE	HOU	6	6	44	184	19	18	7	100%	7.2	10.2%	10.0%	0.2%	3.9%	5.85	6.04	-0.5
2028	32	MLB CTX	HOU	2	2	17	72	8	7	3	100%	8.5	11.1%	9.6%	1.5%	3.6%	5.57	5.76	-0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	24	101	10	10	4	100%	6.0	10.2%	10.0%	0.2%	3.9%	5.85	6.04	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	27	245	1088	178	108	40	33%	3.0	16.4%	9.9%	6.5%	3.6%	4.82	4.97	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		67	22	200	887	145	88	33	33%	3.0	16.4%	9.9%	6.5%	3.6%	4.82	4.97	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		195	104	709	3046	576	296	87	53%	3.6	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	2.9%	4.11	4.30	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	29	200	859	163	84	25	53%	3.6	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	2.9%	4.11	4.30	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Bielak (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	11.8%	9.2%	3.4%	—	5.89	10.6%	0.9%	91	+0.39	—	—	—
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	83
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	75
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	72
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	71
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	70
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	70
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	69
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	69
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	68
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	67
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	67
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	67
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	67
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	66
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	66
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	66
David Holman R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	29	SW	5.80	8.9%	10.7%	3.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	5.28	129	65
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	65
Scott Carroll R 2016 · 4.94 FIP	31	SP	4.94	10.5%	8.6%	3.0%	.289	5.71	14.4%	5.8%	22	+0.77	3.92	377	64
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	49	14.9%	9.8%	1.40	5.01
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Mike Willis ('77-'81, 0 WAR*)	1.5	59	18.4%*	9.6%*	1.45*	4.77*