Brandon Bielak — OGILVIE

Brandon Bielak P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 221 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.05

FIP5.39

K%14.5%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL4540

CMD4540

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p1017.2%

p1010.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.390

SI (24%)

CU (10%)

CH (28%)

SL-2.1 (15%)

FB-4.1 (47%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	2	0	4	17	5	1	0	0%	2.2	29.4%	5.9%	23.5%	0.0%	0.00	1.36	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	2	0	4	17	5	1	0	0%	2.2	29.4%	5.9%	23.5%	0.0%	0.00	1.48	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	117	470	131	39	6	68%	4.7	21.9%	9.3%	12.6%	1.5%	2.23	3.26	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	117	470	131	39	6	68%	4.7	27.9%	8.3%	19.6%	1.3%	2.23	2.53	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	122	500	119	50	13	87%	5.3	20.5%	10.6%	9.8%	3.0%	4.22	4.36	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	122	500	119	50	13	87%	5.3	23.8%	10.0%	13.8%	2.6%	4.22	3.77	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	12	6	32	148	26	17	9	50%	2.7	17.6%	11.5%	6.1%	6.3%	6.75	6.50	-0.6
2020	24	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	12	6	32	148	26	17	9	50%	2.7	17.6%	11.5%	6.1%	6.1%	6.75	6.72	-0.7
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	5	67	291	68	25	5	15%	2.0	22.5%	8.7%	13.8%	1.8%	3.88	3.27	+1.0
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	5	67	291	68	25	5	15%	2.0	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	1.7%	3.88	3.16	+1.1
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	14	101	442	98	47	7	50%	3.6	19.8%	11.1%	8.7%	1.8%	3.21	3.83	+1.3
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	14	101	442	98	47	7	50%	3.6	22.2%	10.6%	11.5%	1.6%	3.21	3.46	+1.8
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	135	597	125	55	18	86%	4.8	19.1%	8.9%	10.2%	3.3%	4.40	4.42	+0.8
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	135	597	125	55	18	86%	4.8	19.1%	8.9%	10.2%	3.3%	4.40	4.42	+0.8
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	135	597	125	55	18	86%	4.8	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.40	4.20	+1.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	13	96	439	63	44	15	41%	3.0	12.5%	9.3%	3.1%	3.8%	5.79	5.29	-0.8
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	13	96	439	63	44	15	41%	3.0	12.5%	9.3%	3.1%	3.8%	5.79	5.29	-0.8
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	13	96	439	63	44	15	41%	3.0	14.4%	10.0%	4.3%	3.4%	5.79	5.19	-0.7
2025	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	2	2	10	34	5	5	2	100%	4.8	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	5.9%	2.79	6.95	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	2	2	10	34	5	5	2	100%	4.8	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	5.9%	2.79	6.95	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	2	2	10	34	5	5	2	100%	4.8	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	5.9%	2.79	6.31	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			76	21	204	913	160	91	33	28%	2.7	17.5%	10.0%	7.6%	3.6%	4.63	4.97	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	9	3	25	108	11	9	4	33%	2.7	8.5%	7.5%	1.0%	4.1%	6.57	5.57	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	9	3	25	108	11	9	4	33%	2.7	8.5%	7.5%	1.0%	4.1%	6.57	5.57	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	HOU	9	3	25	108	11	9	4	33%	2.7	10.2%	8.3%	1.9%	3.7%	6.57	5.33	—
ROS	30	MLB MLE	HOU	5	0	5	21	3	2	1	0%	1.0	14.5%	9.9%	4.6%	3.4%	5.05	5.39	-0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	30	129	14	11	5	—	—	10.9%	8.6%	2.3%	3.7%	6.31	5.54	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	HOU	8	8	56	236	32	24	9	100%	7.0	13.7%	10.3%	3.5%	3.6%	5.39	5.62	-0.4
2028	32	MLB MLE	HOU	8	8	52	218	28	23	8	100%	6.5	12.9%	10.7%	2.3%	3.9%	5.68	5.87	-0.5
2027	31	MLB CTX	HOU	3	3	21	89	12	9	3	100%	7.0	13.7%	10.3%	3.5%	3.6%	5.39	5.62	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	28	118	15	13	5	100%	7.0	12.9%	10.7%	2.3%	3.9%	5.68	5.87	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	28	253	1122	188	113	41	33%	3.0	16.7%	10.1%	6.7%	3.6%	4.81	4.96	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		66	22	200	885	148	89	32	34%	3.0	16.7%	10.1%	6.7%	3.6%	4.81	4.96	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		195	104	709	3046	573	296	87	53%	3.6	18.8%	9.7%	9.1%	2.9%	4.11	4.32	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	29	200	859	162	84	25	53%	3.6	18.8%	9.7%	9.1%	2.9%	4.11	4.32	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Bielak (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	14.5%	9.9%	3.4%	—	5.74	13.3%	2.9%	107	+0.35	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	76
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	76
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	74
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	73
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	73
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	72
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	71
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	493	71
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	70
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	70
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	69
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	69
Eddie Butler R 2021 · 5.47 FIP	30	SW	5.47	13.4%	9.6%	4.2%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	538	69
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	69
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	69
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	69
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	68
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	68
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	68
Dillon Gee R 2016 · 5.10 FIP	30	SW	5.10	16.2%	6.2%	4.7%	.302	3.85	18.0%	12.1%	127	-1.25	3.67	380	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	13.8%	10.3%	1.41	5.36
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21