Brandon Bielak
P
Reno Aces
+0.0
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 221 lbs
AAA
ERA4.70
FIP5.03
xFIP5.98
SIERA5.57
K%17.6%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%7.8%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL4545
CMD2020
K†3030
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p1017.2%
K%
p1010.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.390
SI (24%)
CU (10%)
CH (28%)
SL-2.1 (15%)
FB-4.1 (47%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Astros | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 25 | 17 | 117 | 470 | 131 | 39 | 6 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 1.5% | 2.23 | 3.26 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 23 | 20 | 122 | 500 | 119 | 50 | 13 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.36 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 12 | 6 | 32 | 148 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 17.6% | 11.5% | 6.2% | 6.75 | 6.47 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 34 | 5 | 67 | 291 | 68 | 25 | 5 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 1.7% | 3.88 | 3.21 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 28 | 14 | 101 | 442 | 98 | 47 | 7 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 1.8% | 3.21 | 3.83 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 28 | 24 | 135 | 597 | 125 | 55 | 18 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 32 | 13 | 96 | 439 | 63 | 44 | 15 | 13.0% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.79 | 5.34 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Reno Aces | 2 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 2.79 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 30 | 22 | 7 | 15.4% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 5.08 | 5.44 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 14.8% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 5.36 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 26 | 21 | 6 | 14.2% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 5.54 | 5.66 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 24 | 20 | 6 | 13.5% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 5.69 | 5.79 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 21 | 19 | 6 | 12.8% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 5.83 | 5.93 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 19 | 19 | 6 | 12.1% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 5.98 | 6.08 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 16 | 18 | 6 | 11.3% | 12.2% | 4.0% | 6.14 | 6.25 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 186 | 101 | 684 | 2938 | 569 | 296 | 82 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 4.28 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 30 | 200 | 859 | 166 | 87 | 24 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 4.28 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Bielak (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.44 | 15.4% | 11.0% | 3.4% | — | 5.66 | 14.2% | 2.9% | 130 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 83 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 82 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 82 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 79 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.06 | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .286 | 5.24 | 12.7% | 5.3% | 61 | +0.18 | 4.29 | 209 | 78 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 77 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.84 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.98 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 107 | +0.14 | 2.98 | 306 | 77 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.13 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .278 | 5.98 | 9.9% | 0.8% | 104 | +0.85 | 5.13 | 194 | 76 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.81 | 11.1% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .281 | 4.04 | 12.1% | 4.4% | 139 | -0.77 | 3.17 | 273 | 76 |
| J.D. Martin R 2029 · 4.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.85 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .302 | 5.41 | 12.2% | -0.2% | 249 | +0.56 | 4.85 | 289 | 76 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2029 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.0% | .300 | 4.15 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.15 | 3.81 | 208 | 75 |
| Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.50 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.37 | 11.6% | 2.4% | 107 | -0.13 | 4.13 | 156 | 75 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.29 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.78 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.49 | 3.39 | 212 | 74 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.79 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .311 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.11 | 3.93 | 337 | 74 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2024 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.38 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 101 | 74 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2024 · 5.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.38 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 74 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.48 | 13.0% | 13.4% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 150 | 73 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 73 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 73 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 158 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.