Brandon Bielak
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 221 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145135vR 126
ERA5.24
FIP5.60
K%14.1%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%2.6%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p1017.2%
K%
p1010.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.390
SI (24%)
CU (10%)
CH (28%)
SL-2.1 (15%)
FB-4.1 (47%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Astros | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.2 | 29.4% | 5.9% | 23.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.36 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Astros | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 2.2 | 29.4% | 5.9% | 23.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.48 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 17 | 117 | 470 | 131 | 39 | 6 | 68% | 4.7 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 1.5% | 2.23 | 3.24 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 17 | 117 | 470 | 131 | 39 | 6 | 68% | 4.7 | 27.9% | 8.3% | 19.6% | 1.3% | 2.23 | 2.53 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 122 | 500 | 119 | 50 | 13 | 87% | 5.3 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.41 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 122 | 500 | 119 | 50 | 13 | 87% | 5.3 | 23.8% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 3.77 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 12 | 6 | 32 | 148 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 50% | 2.7 | 17.6% | 11.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.75 | 6.22 | -0.6 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 12 | 6 | 32 | 148 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 50% | 2.7 | 17.6% | 11.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.75 | 6.72 | -0.8 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 5 | 67 | 291 | 68 | 25 | 5 | 15% | 2.0 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 1.6% | 3.88 | 3.19 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 5 | 67 | 291 | 68 | 25 | 5 | 15% | 2.0 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 1.7% | 3.88 | 3.16 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 14 | 101 | 442 | 98 | 47 | 7 | 50% | 3.6 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 1.9% | 3.21 | 3.89 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 14 | 101 | 442 | 98 | 47 | 7 | 50% | 3.6 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 1.6% | 3.21 | 3.46 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 135 | 597 | 125 | 55 | 18 | 86% | 4.8 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 135 | 597 | 125 | 55 | 18 | 86% | 4.8 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.20 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 13 | 96 | 439 | 63 | 44 | 15 | 41% | 3.0 | 13.0% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.79 | 5.34 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 13 | 96 | 439 | 63 | 44 | 15 | 41% | 3.0 | 14.4% | 10.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.79 | 5.19 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Reno Aces | 2 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 14.7% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 2.79 | 6.95 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Reno Aces | 2 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 14.7% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 2.79 | 6.31 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 9 | 3 | 25 | 108 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 33% | 2.7 | 9.0% | 8.8% | 0.2% | 4.1% | 6.57 | 5.69 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | HOU | 57 | 0 | 60 | 252 | 35 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.1% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 5.60 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.1% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 5.60 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 84 | 360 | 46 | 38 | 13 | — | — | 12.9% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.63 | 5.63 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 6 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 14.1% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 5.22 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 56 | 236 | 31 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 7.0 | 13.3% | 11.8% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 5.60 | 5.83 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 52 | 218 | 27 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.5 | 12.5% | 12.2% | 0.3% | 3.9% | 5.89 | 6.09 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 47 | 200 | 23 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.8 | 11.7% | 12.7% | -1.0% | 4.1% | 6.18 | 6.37 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 3 | 3 | 21 | 89 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 7.0 | 13.3% | 11.8% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 5.60 | 5.83 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 28 | 118 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 7.0 | 12.5% | 12.2% | 0.3% | 3.9% | 5.89 | 6.09 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 16 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 11.7% | 12.7% | -1.0% | 4.1% | 6.18 | 6.37 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 94 | 33 | 291 | 1280 | 206 | 136 | 47 | 35% | 3.1 | 16.1% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.01 | 5.11 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 23 | 200 | 880 | 142 | 93 | 32 | 35% | 3.1 | 16.1% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.01 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 195 | 104 | 709 | 3046 | 579 | 305 | 86 | 53% | 3.6 | 19.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.32 | +8.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 29 | 200 | 859 | 163 | 86 | 24 | 53% | 3.6 | 19.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Bielak (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.60 | 14.1% | 11.5% | 3.4% | — | 6.08 | 12.5% | 0.3% | 155 | +0.48 | — | — | — |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 74 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 73 |
| Paul Clemens R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.76 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 247 | 70 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 70 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.33 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 254 | 70 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 69 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2025 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 69 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.34 | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 160 | 69 |
| Jose A. Flores R 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 13.7% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 237 | 68 |
| Colin Bates R 2023 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 68 |
| Derek Eitel R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 67 |
| Eddie Butler R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 538 | 67 |
| Seth Simmons R 2026 · 6.19 FIP | 30 | SW | 6.19 | 13.3% | 10.9% | 5.1% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 251 | 66 |
| Jerome Williams R 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 65 |
| Carlos Frías R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 65 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 65 |
| David Fletcher R 2026 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 65 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 300 | 64 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 6.27 FIP | 30 | SP- | 6.27 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 5.2% | .321 | 4.78 | 17.5% | 10.5% | 129 | -1.49 | 4.66 | 261 | 64 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 13.0% | 12.0% | 1.44 | 5.70 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |