Charlie Barnes
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.0
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AAA
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP7.40
SIERA6.84
K%22.3%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%14.8%
IP20
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL4545
CMD2525
K†3030
FB Velo
p1089.4
Whiff%
p1016.9%
K%
p1011.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.373
FB (60%)
SI (26%)
SL-0.7 (23%)
CH-0.9 (18%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 12 | 11 | 48 | 205 | 46 | 18 | 5 | 15.9% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 2.61 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 23 | 23 | 118 | 508 | 84 | 43 | 6 | 12.7% | 9.7% | 1.4% | 2.81 | 4.02 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 26 | 25 | 131 | 584 | 124 | 55 | 8 | 17.2% | 10.4% | 1.5% | 4.88 | 3.79 | +2.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 25 | 24 | 114 | 499 | 82 | 40 | 11 | 14.9% | 8.3% | 2.2% | 4.50 | 4.09 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 6 | 6 | 24 | 117 | 27 | 5 | 5 | 20.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.12 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 1 | 14 | 64 | 15 | 9 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.77 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | CHC | 17 | — | 17 | 71 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 15.2% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 5.01 | 5.21 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 31 | 135 | 26 | 16 | 3 | 19.1% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 4.44 | 2.81 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 15.4% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 5.10 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 96 | 90 | 450 | 1977 | 311 | 188 | 40 | 15.7% | 9.5% | 2.0% | 4.08 | 4.10 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 40 | 200 | 879 | 138 | 84 | 18 | 15.7% | 9.5% | 2.0% | 4.08 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Charlie Barnes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.21 | 15.2% | 9.3% | 3.3% | — | 5.22 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 20 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.08 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .303 | 3.62 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.46 | 3.62 | 113 | 82 |
| Brian Duensing L 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 78 |
| Jason Vargas L 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.25 | 14.8% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.61 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 285 | +0.36 | 4.04 | 478 | 76 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 155 | 74 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 74 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 73 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.1% | .315 | 4.24 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.37 | 4.10 | 424 | 73 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 5.45 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +1.05 | 2.65 | 256 | 69 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 69 |
| Jeff Locke L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 328 | 68 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 68 |
| Brian Johnson L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.89 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 506 | 68 |
| T.J. McFarland L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 14.0% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .335 | 4.28 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 141 | +0.24 | 2.98 | 602 | 68 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.14 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 182 | 67 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 67 |
| Matt Grace L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 289 | 67 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 118 | 67 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.27 | 11.8% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .250 | 3.98 | 14.9% | 8.6% | 45 | -0.29 | 2.82 | 414 | 66 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2024 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.88 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 200 | 66 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.28 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.9% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.28 | 128 | 66 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.