Jeff Bain prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jeff Bain P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%19.9%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	14	0	22	93	27	5	2	0%	1.6	19.7%	6.7%	13.0%	3.0%	4.09	3.94	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	Missoula Osprey	14	0	22	93	27	5	2	0%	1.6	29.0%	5.4%	23.7%	2.2%	4.09	2.51	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	138	577	127	40	5	100%	5.5	16.5%	8.1%	8.3%	1.1%	2.93	3.35	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	138	577	127	40	5	100%	5.5	22.0%	6.9%	15.1%	0.9%	2.93	2.60	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	136	577	162	44	25	96%	5.2	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	5.0%	3.91	5.11	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	136	577	162	44	25	96%	5.2	28.1%	7.6%	20.5%	4.3%	3.91	4.08	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	6	62	282	60	21	8	21%	2.2	16.9%	9.0%	7.9%	2.3%	5.34	4.09	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	6	62	282	60	21	8	21%	2.2	21.3%	7.4%	13.8%	2.8%	5.34	3.85	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	7	70	290	77	19	14	16%	1.5	22.2%	7.1%	15.1%	5.4%	3.62	5.06	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	7	70	290	77	19	14	16%	1.5	26.6%	6.6%	20.0%	4.8%	3.62	4.32	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	19	7	55	255	48	17	17	37%	2.9	15.2%	7.3%	7.9%	4.9%	7.16	5.42	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	19	7	55	255	48	17	17	37%	2.9	15.2%	7.3%	7.9%	4.9%	7.16	5.42	—
2023	27	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	19	7	55	255	48	17	17	37%	2.9	18.8%	6.7%	12.2%	6.7%	7.16	6.28	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	8.3%	11.5%	3.1%	4.56	4.56	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	ARI	33	0	35	148	29	13	5	0%	1.1	19.8%	8.8%	11.1%	3.3%	4.65	4.73	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	ARI	10	0	11	46	9	4	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	8.8%	11.1%	3.3%	4.65	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	9	4	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	8.8%	11.1%	3.3%	4.65	4.35	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	73	36	0%	1.1	19.8%	8.8%	11.1%	3.3%	4.65	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		157	70	483	2074	389	168	73	45%	3.1	18.8%	8.1%	10.7%	3.5%	4.16	4.46	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	29	200	859	161	70	30	45%	3.1	18.8%	8.1%	10.7%	3.5%	4.16	4.46	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeff Bain (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	19.9%	8.3%	3.1%	—	4.73	19.8%	11.1%	35	+0.17	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	75
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	74
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	71
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	70
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	70
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	70
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	69
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	69
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	68
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	67
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	67
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	66
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	66
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	66
Ryan Jensen R 2005 · 4.35 FIP	29	SW	4.35	15.7%	5.2%	3.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	253	65
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	65
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	65
Ross Ohlendorf R 2013 · 4.01 FIP	30	SW	4.01	18.2%	5.3%	3.2%	.265	4.18	23.5%	14.4%	122	+0.17	3.30	617	65
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	65
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	19.8%	8.5%	1.24	4.60
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49