Spencer Adams — OGILVIE

Spencer Adams P Round Rock Express

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 171 lbs AAA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.86

FIP5.86

K%10.6%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%2.7%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	129	552	96	18	8	100%	5.4	13.0%	3.8%	9.2%	2.2%	2.99	3.67	—
2015	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	129	552	96	18	8	100%	5.4	17.4%	3.3%	14.1%	1.4%	2.99	2.84	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	163	696	100	31	9	100%	6.0	11.2%	5.1%	6.2%	1.5%	3.98	3.63	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	163	696	100	31	9	100%	6.0	14.4%	4.5%	9.9%	1.3%	3.98	3.16	—
2017	21	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	26	26	153	658	113	37	19	100%	5.9	13.9%	6.2%	7.7%	3.9%	4.42	4.84	—
2017	21	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	26	26	153	658	113	37	19	100%	5.9	17.2%	5.6%	11.6%	2.9%	4.42	3.96	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	159	671	95	58	20	100%	5.7	11.9%	9.2%	2.7%	3.1%	3.79	4.98	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	159	671	95	58	20	100%	5.7	14.2%	8.6%	5.5%	3.0%	3.79	4.63	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	5	3	18	96	10	8	4	60%	3.6	9.2%	8.7%	0.4%	3.8%	8.00	5.51	—
2019	23	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	5	3	18	96	10	8	4	60%	3.6	10.4%	8.3%	2.1%	4.2%	8.00	6.21	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	5	4	21	100	7	8	9	80%	4.1	6.0%	7.2%	-1.2%	9.9%	9.15	8.94	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	5	4	21	100	7	8	9	80%	4.1	6.0%	7.2%	-1.2%	9.9%	9.15	8.94	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	5	4	21	100	7	8	9	80%	4.1	7.0%	8.0%	-1.0%	9.0%	9.15	9.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	TEX	2	2	11	46	5	4	2	100%	5.5	10.6%	7.8%	2.7%	4.2%	5.86	5.86	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TEX	3	3	20	84	10	7	4	100%	6.7	11.4%	8.4%	3.0%	4.3%	5.84	5.93	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	TEX	1	1	7	30	3	2	1	100%	7.0	11.4%	8.4%	3.0%	4.3%	5.84	5.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	7	31	4	3	1	100%	7.4	11.4%	8.4%	3.0%	4.3%	5.84	5.55	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	109	82	27	100%	6.0	11.4%	8.4%	3.0%	4.3%	5.84	5.55	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		115	112	643	2773	336	174	82	97%	5.6	12.1%	6.3%	5.8%	3.0%	4.12	4.51	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		36	35	200	863	105	54	26	97%	5.6	12.1%	6.3%	5.8%	3.0%	4.12	4.51	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Adams (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.86	10.6%	7.8%	4.2%	—	5.93	11.4%	3.0%	20	+0.07	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	75
Erik Hiljus R 2002 · 6.07 FIP	29	SP	6.07	14.1%	9.7%	5.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	112	74
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	73
J.D. Martin R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	33	SP	4.85	9.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.302	5.42	12.2%	-0.2%	249	+0.57	4.79	414	71
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	71
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	70
Greg Reynolds R 2016 · 5.97 FIP	31	SP	5.97	3.8%	7.3%	4.1%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	148	68
Justin Lehr R 2009 · 6.01 FIP	31	SP	6.01	11.5%	9.4%	4.9%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	148	66
Marco Quevedo R 2017 · 4.85 FIP	30	SP	4.85	9.0%	4.7%	3.5%	.348	5.17	13.6%	2.2%	58	+0.32	4.13	300	64
André Rienzo R 2019 · 5.33 FIP	31	SP	5.33	17.9%	11.8%	4.1%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	321	63
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	63
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	63
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	61
Mitch Atkins R 2017 · 4.77 FIP	31	SP	4.77	14.3%	8.1%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	215	61
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	60
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	59
Brian Tollberg R 2002 · 4.98 FIP	29	SP	4.98	11.5%	5.9%	3.8%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	297	59
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	31	SP-	4.92	14.9%	7.2%	4.0%	.277	5.19	16.3%	8.8%	259	+0.27	3.97	567	57
Cody Mincey R 2022 · 5.56 FIP	30	SP	5.56	13.9%	8.4%	4.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	147	56
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	55