Carlos Herrera
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 367 | .253/.294/.398 | 7 | 18 | 47 | — | .203/.236/.317 |
| 2022 | 25 | INTLAguilas del Z… | 100 | .320/.340/.381 | 0 | 1 | 106 | — | |
| 2023 | 26 | INTLBravos de Mar… | 37 | .278/.278/.278 | 0 | 1 | 52 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 160 | 139 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 230 | 291 | 281 | 572 | 50 | 278 | 16 | 7 | 250 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 57 | 53 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 340 | 386 | 377 | 763 | 38 | 429 | 19 | 4 | 349 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 548 | 504 | 120 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 115 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 238 | 271 | 357 | 628 | 119 | 294 | 21 | 4 | 269 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 20 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 250 | 167 | 417 | 200 | 15 | 10 | 206 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 282 | 256 | 57 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 46 | 3 | 17 | 6 | 223 | 271 | 320 | 591 | 98 | 256 | 16 | 5 | 259 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 448 | 399 | 111 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 25 | 103 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 278 | 326 | 416 | 742 | 138 | 356 | 23 | 6 | 314 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 35 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 273 | 226 | 499 | 350 | 34 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 178 | 162 | 33 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 204 | 254 | 321 | 575 | 117 | 274 | 26 | 5 | 251 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 256 | 233 | 61 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 61 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 262 | 315 | 446 | 761 | 185 | 305 | 24 | 6 | 330 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 52 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 149 | 231 | 191 | 422 | 43 | 206 | 25 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 60 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 200 | 267 | 345 | 612 | 145 | 214 | 18 | 5 | 277 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 291 | 275 | 75 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 71 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 273 | 306 | 425 | 731 | 153 | 348 | 24 | 3 | 320 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 16 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 188 | 71 | 259 | 100 | 25 | 12 | 144 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 100 | 97 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 320 | 340 | 381 | 721 | 62 | 388 | 17 | 2 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 37 | 36 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 278 | 278 | 556 | 370 | 24 | 0 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 160 | 142 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 155 | 205 | 183 | 388 | 28 | 184 | 19 | 5 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 57 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 222 | 263 | 241 | 504 | 19 | 286 | 23 | 2 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 548 | 511 | 105 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 159 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 205 | 230 | 294 | 523 | 88 | 272 | 29 | 3 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 282 | 260 | 51 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 61 | 3 | 17 | 6 | 196 | 234 | 277 | 511 | 81 | 232 | 22 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 448 | 408 | 90 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 147 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 221 | 255 | 306 | 562 | 86 | 305 | 33 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 178 | 165 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 56 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 170 | 208 | 267 | 475 | 97 | 236 | 31 | 3 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 256 | 238 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 86 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 185 | 227 | 311 | 538 | 126 | 238 | 34 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 60 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 161 | 217 | 250 | 467 | 89 | 198 | 22 | 3 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 291 | 278 | 59 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 93 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 212 | 240 | 331 | 571 | 119 | 300 | 32 | 2 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 160 | 142 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 155 | 205 | 183 | 388 | 28 | 196 | 19 | 5 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 160 | 139 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 230 | 291 | 281 | 572 | 50 | 278 | 16 | 7 | 250 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 57 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 222 | 263 | 241 | 504 | 19 | 293 | 23 | 2 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 57 | 53 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 340 | 386 | 377 | 763 | 38 | 429 | 19 | 4 | 349 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 568 | 530 | 110 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 165 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 208 | 232 | 298 | 530 | 91 | 290 | 29 | 3 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 568 | 522 | 123 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 118 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 236 | 271 | 351 | 621 | 115 | 291 | 21 | 4 | 267 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 282 | 260 | 51 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 61 | 3 | 17 | 6 | 196 | 234 | 277 | 511 | 81 | 244 | 22 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 282 | 256 | 57 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 46 | 3 | 17 | 6 | 223 | 271 | 320 | 591 | 98 | 256 | 16 | 5 | 259 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 440 | 98 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 158 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 223 | 257 | 316 | 572 | 93 | 331 | 33 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 483 | 430 | 118 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 115 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 274 | 322 | 402 | 724 | 128 | 356 | 24 | 6 | 308 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 403 | 71 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 142 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 176 | 217 | 283 | 500 | 107 | 245 | 33 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 434 | 395 | 94 | 23 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 107 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 238 | 290 | 395 | 685 | 157 | 292 | 25 | 6 | 298 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL MLE | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 52 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 149 | 231 | 191 | 422 | 43 | 206 | 25 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL RAW | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 52 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 149 | 231 | 191 | 422 | 43 | 206 | 25 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 367 | 350 | 73 | 22 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 111 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 209 | 239 | 329 | 568 | 120 | 285 | 30 | 2 | 243 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 367 | 344 | 87 | 25 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 86 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 253 | 294 | 398 | 692 | 145 | 316 | 23 | 4 | 305 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL MLE | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 100 | 97 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 320 | 340 | 381 | 721 | 62 | 388 | 17 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL RAW | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 100 | 97 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 320 | 340 | 381 | 721 | 62 | 388 | 17 | 2 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL MLE | Bravos de Margarita | — | 37 | 36 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 278 | 278 | 556 | 370 | 24 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL RAW | Bravos de Margarita | — | 37 | 36 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 278 | 278 | 556 | 370 | 24 | 0 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 160 | 150 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 147 | 205 | 173 | 379 | 27 | 184 | 19 | 5 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 57 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 222 | 263 | 241 | 504 | 19 | 286 | 23 | 2 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 568 | 546 | 110 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 165 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 201 | 232 | 289 | 522 | 88 | 272 | 29 | 3 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 282 | 267 | 51 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 61 | 3 | 17 | 6 | 191 | 234 | 270 | 504 | 79 | 232 | 22 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 460 | 98 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 158 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 213 | 257 | 302 | 559 | 89 | 305 | 33 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 410 | 71 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 142 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 173 | 217 | 278 | 495 | 105 | 237 | 33 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 367 | 350 | 73 | 22 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 111 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 209 | 239 | 329 | 568 | 120 | 283 | 30 | 2 | 243 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2540 | 2359 | 485 | 91 | 21 | 25 | 84 | 720 | 21 | 92 | 43 | 206 | 239 | 294 | 533 | 88 | 282 | 28 | 3 | 207 | 26 | -224 | +1 | +0 | +27 | +55 | -14.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 123 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 184 | 5 | 24 | 11 | 204 | 237 | 288 | 525 | 84 | 279 | 28 | 3 | 207 | 26 | -57 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -3.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 291 PAwOBA .313 → .248 (−65)K% 24.4% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.40% | ÷1.028 | ×1.350 | — | — | 32.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.44% | ÷1.047 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 2.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.06% | ÷1.069 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | ×0.978 | 18.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.27% | ÷0.913 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×0.978 | 10.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.022 | ×0.978 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.45% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 2.16% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 114, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 106, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .313 → .248; ISO .153 → .124; BABIP .348 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 60 PAwOBA .270 → .217 (−52)K% 18.3% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.33% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 3.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.91% | ÷0.985 | ×0.940 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 15.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.947 | ×0.870 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 4.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.83% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .270 → .217; ISO .145 → .099; BABIP .214 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 256 PAwOBA .326 → .232 (−94)K% 23.8% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.83% | ÷0.950 | ×1.340 | — | — | 33.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.86% | ÷0.935 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.09% | ÷1.079 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 17.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.56% | ÷1.001 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.065 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.81% | ÷1.278 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 4.18% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 116, 2B 100, 3B 113, K 90, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .326 → .232; ISO .185 → .124; BABIP .305 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAHartford Yard Goats · 178 PAwOBA .247 → .202 (−45)K% 25.8% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.84% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.06% | ÷1.042 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 3.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.38% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 15.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.62% | ÷1.178 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 6.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.59% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 2.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.190 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.58% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 106, 2B 136, 3B 80, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .247 → .202; ISO .117 → .093; BABIP .274 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 448 PAwOBA .308 → .239 (−70)K% 23.0% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.99% | ÷0.938 | ×1.340 | — | — | 32.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.36% | ÷1.073 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 3.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.68% | ÷1.007 | ×0.910 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 23.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.09% | ÷1.025 | ×0.820 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.130 | ×0.760 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 1.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.03% | ÷1.531 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 1.23% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 206, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 126, K 88, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .308 → .239; ISO .138 → .092; BABIP .356 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAsheville Tourists · 282 PAwOBA .253 → .215 (−38)K% 16.3% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.31% | ÷1.018 | ×1.340 | — | — | 21.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.96% | ÷0.987 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 3.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.06% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.48% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×1.015 | 18.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.085 | ×0.820 | ×1.031 | ×1.015 | 2.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.031 | ×1.015 | 1.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.90% | ÷1.243 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 1.28% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 110, 2B 117, 3B 80, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .253 → .215; ISO .098 → .078; BABIP .256 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAsheville Tourists · 548 PAwOBA .263 → .219 (−43)K% 21.0% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.99% | ÷0.969 | ×1.340 | — | — | 29.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.83% | ÷0.987 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 2.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.36% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.82% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×1.030 | 20.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.43% | ÷1.267 | ×0.820 | ×1.011 | ×1.030 | 4.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.80% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.011 | ×1.030 | 1.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.232 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 1.23% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 93, 2B 153, 3B 80, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .263 → .219; ISO .119 → .088; BABIP .294 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 DSLDSL Rockies · 57 PAwOBA .340 → .222 (−118)K% 19.3% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.30% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.51% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.995 | 25.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.995 | 2.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .340 → .222; ISO .038 → .022; BABIP .429 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .