Elias Arias
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 20 | ROKATL | 279 | .297/.407/.366 | 2 | 21 | 50 | — | .204/.291/.245 |
| 2015 | 21 | ROKGCL Braves | 51 | .130/.200/.174 | 0 | 1 | -30 | — | .083/.120/.104 |
| 2016 | 22 | ROKDanville Brav… | 124 | .223/.293/.348 | 2 | 4 | 20 | — | .155/.203/.224 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 20 | ROK | DSL Braves | — | 279 | 232 | 69 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 38 | 39 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 297 | 407 | 366 | 774 | 69 | 349 | 14 | 14 | 354 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | GCL Braves | — | 51 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 130 | 200 | 174 | 374 | 43 | 167 | 22 | 8 | 176 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | Danville Braves | — | 124 | 112 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 223 | 293 | 348 | 641 | 125 | 299 | 27 | 8 | 287 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Braves | — | 279 | 245 | 50 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 48 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 204 | 291 | 245 | 536 | 41 | 240 | 17 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 51 | 48 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 83 | 120 | 104 | 224 | 21 | 135 | 31 | 4 | 124 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 124 | 116 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 155 | 203 | 224 | 427 | 69 | 247 | 38 | 5 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Braves | — | 279 | 245 | 50 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 48 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 204 | 291 | 245 | 536 | 41 | 249 | 17 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK RAW | DSL Braves | — | 279 | 232 | 69 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 38 | 39 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 297 | 407 | 366 | 774 | 69 | 349 | 14 | 14 | 354 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 51 | 48 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 83 | 120 | 104 | 224 | 21 | 121 | 31 | 4 | 124 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK RAW | GCL Braves | — | 51 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 130 | 200 | 174 | 374 | 43 | 167 | 22 | 8 | 176 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 124 | 116 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 155 | 203 | 224 | 427 | 69 | 250 | 38 | 5 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK RAW | Danville Braves | — | 124 | 112 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 223 | 293 | 348 | 641 | 125 | 299 | 27 | 8 | 287 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Braves | — | 279 | 247 | 50 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 48 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 202 | 291 | 243 | 534 | 40 | 240 | 17 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 51 | 49 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 82 | 120 | 102 | 222 | 20 | 135 | 31 | 4 | 124 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 124 | 116 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 155 | 203 | 224 | 427 | 69 | 247 | 38 | 5 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 454 | 409 | 72 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 111 | 6 | 26 | 16 | 176 | 248 | 222 | 470 | 46 | 235 | 24 | 7 | 217 | 33 | -36 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -2.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 103 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 47 | 159 | 9 | 37 | 23 | 176 | 248 | 224 | 472 | 48 | 234 | 24 | 7 | 217 | 33 | -52 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 ROKDanville Braves · 124 PAwOBA .280 → .198 (−82)K% 26.6% → 37.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.61% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 37.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.975 | 5.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.975 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.975 | 18.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.050 | ×0.975 | 3.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.050 | ×0.975 | 1.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.975 | 1.97% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .280 → .198; ISO .125 → .085; BABIP .299 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKGCL Braves · 51 PAwOBA .175 → .124 (−51)K% 21.6% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 4.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 9.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 4.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .175 → .124; ISO .043 → .030; BABIP .167 → .135. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 DSLDSL Braves · 279 PAwOBA .344 → .242 (−102)K% 14.0% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.98% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 8.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 1.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 21.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 2.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.48% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .344 → .242; ISO .069 → .041; BABIP .349 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).