Telmito Agustin
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A+Potomac Natio… | 233 | .302/.373/.454 | 5 | 7 | 90 | — | .263/.311/.385 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+Potomac Natio… | 432 | .236/.292/.368 | 9 | 9 | 33 | — | .180/.219/.277 |
| 2021 | 24 | AWSH | 47 | .220/.319/.268 | 0 | 4 | 24 | — | .186/.255/.233 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 17 | ROK | DSL Nationals | — | 275 | 220 | 66 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 40 | 47 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 300 | 421 | 495 | 917 | 195 | 360 | 17 | 15 | 393 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 141 | 130 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 331 | 374 | 446 | 820 | 115 | 372 | 12 | 6 | 360 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 260 | 238 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 71 | 0 | 14 | 9 | 265 | 310 | 387 | 696 | 122 | 354 | 27 | 6 | 305 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 114 | 102 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 206 | 257 | 275 | 531 | 69 | 270 | 24 | 5 | 233 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 315 | 296 | 82 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 74 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 277 | 310 | 456 | 766 | 179 | 340 | 23 | 4 | 331 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 233 | 205 | 62 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 43 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 302 | 373 | 454 | 826 | 151 | 356 | 18 | 9 | 361 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 432 | 394 | 93 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 107 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 236 | 292 | 368 | 660 | 132 | 298 | 25 | 7 | 291 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 47 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 220 | 319 | 268 | 587 | 49 | 310 | 26 | 11 | 279 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 275 | 232 | 47 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 57 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 203 | 305 | 328 | 632 | 125 | 239 | 21 | 10 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 141 | 133 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 263 | 295 | 346 | 641 | 83 | 312 | 18 | 4 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 260 | 244 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 14 | 9 | 234 | 267 | 320 | 586 | 86 | 357 | 37 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 114 | 104 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 173 | 211 | 231 | 442 | 58 | 256 | 35 | 4 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 315 | 302 | 70 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 98 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 232 | 252 | 377 | 629 | 146 | 307 | 31 | 2 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 233 | 213 | 56 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 61 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 263 | 311 | 385 | 696 | 122 | 331 | 26 | 5 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 432 | 405 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 155 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 180 | 219 | 277 | 495 | 96 | 259 | 36 | 4 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 47 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 186 | 255 | 233 | 488 | 47 | 273 | 36 | 6 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 275 | 232 | 47 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 57 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 203 | 305 | 328 | 632 | 125 | 253 | 21 | 10 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Nationals | — | 275 | 220 | 66 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 40 | 47 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 300 | 421 | 495 | 917 | 195 | 360 | 17 | 15 | 393 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 141 | 133 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 263 | 295 | 346 | 641 | 83 | 315 | 18 | 4 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Nationals | — | 141 | 130 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 331 | 374 | 446 | 820 | 115 | 372 | 12 | 6 | 360 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 260 | 244 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 14 | 9 | 234 | 267 | 320 | 586 | 86 | 365 | 37 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 260 | 238 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 71 | 0 | 14 | 9 | 265 | 310 | 387 | 696 | 122 | 354 | 27 | 6 | 305 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 429 | 406 | 89 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 138 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 219 | 243 | 337 | 581 | 118 | 309 | 32 | 3 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 429 | 398 | 103 | 22 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 101 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 259 | 296 | 410 | 705 | 151 | 322 | 24 | 4 | 305 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 233 | 213 | 56 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 61 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 263 | 311 | 385 | 696 | 122 | 344 | 26 | 5 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 233 | 205 | 62 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 43 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 302 | 373 | 454 | 826 | 151 | 356 | 18 | 9 | 361 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 432 | 405 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 155 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 180 | 219 | 277 | 495 | 96 | 267 | 36 | 4 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 432 | 394 | 93 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 107 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 236 | 292 | 368 | 660 | 132 | 298 | 25 | 7 | 291 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 47 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 186 | 255 | 233 | 488 | 47 | 308 | 36 | 6 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A RAW | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 47 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 220 | 319 | 268 | 587 | 49 | 310 | 26 | 11 | 279 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 275 | 239 | 47 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 57 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 197 | 305 | 318 | 623 | 121 | 239 | 21 | 10 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 141 | 134 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 261 | 295 | 343 | 638 | 82 | 312 | 18 | 4 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 260 | 247 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 14 | 9 | 231 | 267 | 316 | 582 | 85 | 357 | 37 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 429 | 413 | 89 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 138 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 215 | 243 | 332 | 575 | 116 | 293 | 32 | 3 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 233 | 216 | 56 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 61 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 259 | 311 | 380 | 691 | 120 | 331 | 26 | 5 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 432 | 409 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 155 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 178 | 219 | 274 | 493 | 95 | 259 | 36 | 4 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 47 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 186 | 255 | 233 | 488 | 47 | 273 | 36 | 6 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1817 | 1676 | 365 | 65 | 18 | 25 | 90 | 548 | 13 | 80 | 33 | 218 | 263 | 323 | 586 | 105 | 304 | 30 | 5 | 253 | 57 | -92 | +3 | +0 | -19 | +39 | -7.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 130 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 32 | 196 | 5 | 29 | 12 | 217 | 263 | 320 | 583 | 103 | 302 | 30 | 5 | 253 | 57 | -33 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AFredericksburg Nationals · 47 PAwOBA .273 → .203 (−70)K% 25.5% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.53% | ÷0.967 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.64% | ÷1.100 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 6.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 1.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.970 | 21.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.970 | 5.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.901 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.159 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 101, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 93, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .273 → .203; ISO .049 → .038; BABIP .310 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Potomac Nationals · 432 PAwOBA .286 → .217 (−69)K% 24.8% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.77% | ÷0.983 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.94% | ÷1.023 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 4.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 19.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.62% | ÷0.928 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.079 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.14% | ÷0.988 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 2.85% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 86, 3B 116, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .286 → .217; ISO .132 → .102; BABIP .298 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Potomac Nationals · 233 PAwOBA .354 → .301 (−53)K% 18.5% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.45% | ÷0.998 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.15% | ÷1.013 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 5.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.29% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.16% | ÷0.992 | ×0.940 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 26.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.17% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 5.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 1.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.09% | ÷1.017 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 2.76% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .354 → .301; ISO .151 → .128; BABIP .356 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AHagerstown Suns · 315 PAwOBA .322 → .266 (−57)K% 23.5% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.49% | ÷1.009 | ×1.340 | — | — | 31.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.81% | ÷1.101 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 2.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.32% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 0.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.97% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 22.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.156 | ×0.820 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 5.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.043 | ×0.940 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 1.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.05% | ÷0.909 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 3.71% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 97, 2B 131, 3B 109, K 102, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .322 → .266; ISO .179 → .144; BABIP .340 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Potomac Nationals · 114 PAwOBA .227 → .187 (−41)K% 23.7% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.68% | ÷0.963 | ×1.420 | — | — | 34.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷0.982 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.027 | 3.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.33% | ÷1.050 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 20.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.33% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 4.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.368 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.027 | 0.90% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .227 → .187; ISO .069 → .050; BABIP .270 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AHagerstown Suns · 260 PAwOBA .299 → .258 (−41)K% 27.3% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.31% | ÷1.002 | ×1.340 | — | — | 36.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.15% | ÷0.960 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 4.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.95% | ÷0.954 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 28.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.19% | ÷0.946 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 6.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.950 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.245 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 2.03% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 91, 2B 89, 3B 90, K 100, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .299 → .258; ISO .122 → .091; BABIP .354 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKGCL Nationals · 141 PAwOBA .353 → .280 (−73)K% 12.1% → 17.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.06% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 17.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 3.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 24.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 5.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 1.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.70% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .353 → .280; ISO .115 → .087; BABIP .372 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 DSLDSL Nationals · 275 PAwOBA .389 → .271 (−118)K% 17.1% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.09% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.18% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.021 | ×1.008 | 15.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.021 | ×1.008 | 4.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.021 | ×1.008 | 3.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.82% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .389 → .271; ISO .195 → .123; BABIP .360 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).