Nicanor Alvarado
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 19 | ROKDSL Orioles 2 | 37 | .061/.162/.091 | 0 | 0 | -55 | — | .059/.135/.088 |
| 2014 | 20 | ROKDSL Orioles 1 | 109 | .180/.241/.290 | 1 | 0 | -20 | — | .098/.148/.147 |
| 2015 | 21 | ROKDSL Orioles 1 | 110 | .208/.309/.302 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — | .122/.218/.173 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 19 | ROK | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 37 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 162 | 91 | 253 | 30 | 87 | 27 | 11 | 135 | -55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 109 | 100 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 241 | 290 | 531 | 110 | 279 | 36 | 5 | 240 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 110 | 96 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 309 | 302 | 611 | 94 | 333 | 33 | 5 | 287 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 37 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 135 | 88 | 223 | 29 | 55 | 32 | 8 | 87 | -55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 109 | 102 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 48 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 98 | 148 | 147 | 295 | 49 | 174 | 44 | 3 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 110 | 98 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 218 | 173 | 392 | 51 | 207 | 40 | 4 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 37 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 135 | 88 | 223 | 29 | 91 | 32 | 8 | 87 | -55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 37 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 162 | 91 | 253 | 30 | 87 | 27 | 11 | 135 | -55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 109 | 102 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 48 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 98 | 148 | 147 | 295 | 49 | 182 | 44 | 3 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 109 | 100 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 241 | 290 | 531 | 110 | 279 | 36 | 5 | 240 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 110 | 98 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 218 | 173 | 392 | 51 | 222 | 40 | 4 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 110 | 96 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 309 | 302 | 611 | 94 | 333 | 33 | 5 | 287 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 37 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 135 | 88 | 223 | 29 | 55 | 32 | 8 | 87 | -55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 109 | 102 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 48 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 98 | 148 | 147 | 295 | 49 | 174 | 44 | 3 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 1 | — | 110 | 97 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 218 | 175 | 393 | 52 | 207 | 40 | 4 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 256 | 234 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 104 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 176 | 150 | 326 | 47 | 183 | 41 | 4 | 145 | -16 | -35 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +6 | -3.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 62 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 264 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 104 | 178 | 153 | 331 | 49 | 186 | 41 | 4 | 145 | -16 | -89 | +0 | +0 | -16 | +14 | -9.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 DSLDSL Orioles 1 · 110 PAwOBA .280 → .172 (−108)K% 32.7% → 39.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.73% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.975 | 3.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.27% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.975 | 4.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.990 | ×0.975 | 12.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.990 | ×0.975 | 8.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.990 | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 18.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .280 → .172; ISO .094 → .051; BABIP .333 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 DSLDSL Orioles 1 · 109 PAwOBA .236 → .138 (−98)K% 35.8% → 43.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.78% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 3.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.75% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 1.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.990 | ×0.985 | 10.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.990 | ×0.985 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.990 | ×0.985 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.76% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .236 → .138; ISO .110 → .056; BABIP .279 → .174. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 DSLDSL Orioles 2 · 37 PAwOBA .132 → .087 (−45)K% 27.0% → 33.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.03% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 7.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.995 | 2.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.995 | 2.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .132 → .087; ISO .030 → .017; BABIP .087 → .055. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).