Jhonathan Díaz — OGILVIE

Jhonathan Díaz P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 29 LHP 6'0" / 170 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION133 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.24

FIP4.26

K%16.2%

BB%5.1%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—35

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4040

SL+0.7 (46%)

CH (19%)

SI (12%)

CU (12%)

FB-0.5 (23%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	13	12	60	247	57	18	2	92%	4.6	15.7%	9.1%	6.6%	1.1%	2.85	3.55	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	13	12	60	247	57	18	2	92%	4.6	23.1%	7.3%	15.8%	0.8%	2.85	2.53	—
2017	20	A MLE	Greenville Drive	18	18	89	389	80	28	4	100%	4.9	15.2%	8.5%	6.7%	0.9%	4.57	3.37	—
2017	20	A RAW	Greenville Drive	18	18	89	389	80	28	4	100%	4.9	20.6%	7.2%	13.4%	1.0%	4.57	2.83	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	157	640	151	41	7	100%	5.8	17.6%	7.5%	10.2%	1.4%	3.09	3.31	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	157	640	151	41	7	100%	5.8	23.6%	6.4%	17.2%	1.1%	3.09	2.54	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	27	27	128	562	118	54	6	100%	4.8	16.2%	11.0%	5.1%	1.2%	3.86	3.81	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	27	27	128	562	118	54	6	100%	4.8	21.0%	9.6%	11.4%	1.1%	3.86	3.13	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	14	89	382	101	27	6	74%	4.7	22.1%	7.5%	14.6%	1.5%	4.03	3.01	+2.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	14	89	382	101	27	6	74%	4.7	26.4%	7.1%	19.4%	1.6%	4.03	2.62	+2.6
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	62	273	57	30	5	93%	4.5	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	2.0%	4.48	4.05	+0.6
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	62	273	57	30	5	93%	4.5	20.9%	11.0%	9.9%	1.8%	4.48	3.76	+0.9
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	9	94	417	83	50	10	21%	2.2	17.5%	10.3%	7.2%	2.9%	4.98	4.54	+0.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	9	94	417	83	50	10	21%	2.2	17.5%	10.3%	7.2%	2.9%	4.98	4.54	+0.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	9	94	417	83	50	10	21%	2.2	19.9%	12.0%	7.9%	2.4%	4.98	4.31	+0.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	127	571	128	55	11	82%	4.5	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	1.7%	4.38	3.53	+2.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	127	571	128	55	11	82%	4.5	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	1.7%	4.38	3.53	+2.1
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	23	127	571	128	55	11	82%	4.5	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	1.9%	4.38	3.51	+2.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	140	591	117	24	18	93%	5.0	16.4%	3.7%	12.7%	2.8%	4.11	3.72	+2.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	140	591	117	24	18	93%	5.0	16.4%	3.7%	12.7%	2.8%	4.11	3.72	+2.0
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	140	591	117	24	18	93%	5.0	19.8%	4.1%	15.7%	3.0%	4.11	3.61	+2.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	7	48	225	34	27	5	39%	2.6	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	2.2%	4.72	4.74	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	29	27	133	600	109	46	23	93%	4.6	15.1%	7.0%	8.1%	4.1%	6.23	4.94	—
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	29	27	133	600	109	46	23	93%	4.6	15.1%	7.0%	8.1%	4.1%	6.23	4.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	SEA	28	27	132	594	108	46	22	96%	4.7	18.2%	7.7%	10.4%	3.7%	6.22	4.58	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	SEA	1	0	1	6	1	0	1	0%	1.3	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	16.7%	6.75	10.84	—
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	SEA	1	0	1	6	1	0	1	0%	1.3	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	16.7%	6.75	10.84	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	SEA	1	1	7	31	5	2	1	100%	7.4	16.2%	5.1%	11.0%	2.7%	4.24	4.26	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB CTX	SEA	1	1	7	30	5	2	1	100%	7.0	16.2%	5.1%	11.0%	2.7%	4.24	4.26	+0.1
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	140	631	114	48	24	—	—	18.1%	7.5%	10.5%	3.8%	6.12	4.91	-0.0
FULL	29	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	9	37	114	48	24	—	—	310.8%	129.7%	181.1%	65.0%	98.88	28.96	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	82	347	56	20	10	100%	5.9	16.0%	5.7%	10.3%	2.9%	4.37	4.46	+0.4
2028	31	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	77	323	57	17	10	100%	5.9	17.7%	5.4%	12.3%	3.2%	4.39	4.41	+0.4
2029	32	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	71	299	52	18	10	100%	5.9	17.2%	6.0%	11.2%	3.4%	4.55	4.66	+0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	SEA	13	13	78	329	53	19	10	100%	6.0	16.0%	5.7%	10.3%	2.9%	4.37	4.46	+0.4
2028	31	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	73	308	55	17	10	100%	6.1	17.7%	5.4%	12.3%	3.2%	4.39	4.41	+0.4
2029	32	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	67	283	49	17	10	100%	6.1	17.2%	6.0%	11.2%	3.4%	4.55	4.66	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	45	273	1177	195	81	35	80%	4.9	16.6%	6.9%	9.7%	3.0%	4.48	4.20	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	33	200	862	143	59	26	80%	4.9	16.6%	6.9%	9.7%	3.0%	4.48	4.20	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		245	196	1080	4672	807	383	96	80%	4.4	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.1%	4.28	3.81	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	36	200	865	149	71	18	80%	4.4	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.1%	4.28	3.81	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhonathan Díaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	16.2%	5.1%	2.7%	—	4.51	17.0%	11.3%	230	+0.25	—	—	—
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	78
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	77
Jason Vargas L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	32	SP	4.31	14.8%	6.6%	2.9%	.295	4.65	19.2%	12.1%	285	+0.34	4.02	478	68
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2016 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP	3.95	15.2%	1.6%	3.5%	.241	3.33	23.2%	18.4%	392	-0.62	2.79	725	68
Duane Below L 2015 · 3.63 FIP	29	SW	3.63	12.5%	3.7%	2.0%	.266	4.57	14.7%	9.6%	140	+0.94	3.63	189	63
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	63
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	63
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	63
Nick Additon L 2017 · 3.13 FIP	29	SP	3.13	19.3%	9.1%	0.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	217	61
Andrew Albers L 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	12.4%	7.2%	2.1%	.354	3.51	17.9%	12.6%	303	-0.62	2.98	508	61
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	60
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	60
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	59
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	59
Eric Surkamp L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	16.4%	9.3%	4.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	182	59
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	59
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	58
Jose De Paula L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	27	SP	3.35	8.7%	7.8%	0.0%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	118	58
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	58
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	79	16.7%	5.5%	1.18	4.38
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77