Jhonathan Díaz

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 30 LHP 6'0" / 170 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	28	23	127	4.38	3.51	22.4%	9.6%	2.9	K 19.7% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.48
2025	28	MIX2 levels	28	26	140	4.11	3.61	19.8%	4.1%	3.0	K 17.0% · BB 3.7% · FIP 3.67
2026	29	MIX2 levels	30	28	138	6.20	4.93	17.7%	7.9%	0.7	K 15.2% · BB 7.2% · FIP 5.07
2027PROJ	30	MLBSEA	12	12	69	4.82	4.76	15.2%	5.7%	0.5
2028PROJ81% MLB	31	MLBSEA	9	9	54	4.87	4.94	15.2%	6.3%	0.3
2029PROJ84% MLB	32	MLBSEA	8	8	48	4.85	4.88	16.9%	6.0%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRoy Merritt (age 30) · Kwang Hyun Kim (age 32) · John Bale (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 124

ERA4.82

FIP4.76

K%15.2%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	13	12	60	247	57	18	2	92%	4.6	15.7%	9.1%	6.6%	1.1%	2.85	3.55	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	13	12	60	247	57	18	2	92%	4.6	23.1%	7.3%	15.8%	0.8%	2.85	2.53	—
2017	20	A MLE	Greenville Drive	18	18	89	389	80	28	4	100%	4.9	15.2%	8.5%	6.7%	0.9%	4.57	3.37	—
2017	20	A RAW	Greenville Drive	18	18	89	389	80	28	4	100%	4.9	20.6%	7.2%	13.4%	1.0%	4.57	2.83	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	157	640	151	41	7	100%	5.8	17.6%	7.5%	10.2%	1.4%	3.09	3.31	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	157	640	151	41	7	100%	5.8	23.6%	6.4%	17.2%	1.1%	3.09	2.54	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	27	27	128	562	118	54	6	100%	4.8	16.2%	11.0%	5.1%	1.2%	3.86	3.81	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	27	27	128	562	118	54	6	100%	4.8	21.0%	9.6%	11.4%	1.1%	3.86	3.13	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	14	89	382	101	27	6	74%	4.7	22.1%	7.5%	14.6%	1.5%	4.03	3.01	+2.6
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	14	89	382	101	27	6	74%	4.7	26.4%	7.1%	19.4%	1.6%	4.03	2.62	+3.1
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	62	273	57	30	5	93%	4.5	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	2.0%	4.48	4.05	+1.0
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	62	273	57	30	5	93%	4.5	20.9%	11.0%	9.9%	1.8%	4.48	3.76	+1.2
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	9	94	417	83	50	10	21%	2.2	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	2.9%	4.98	4.48	+0.1
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	9	94	417	83	50	10	21%	2.2	19.9%	12.0%	7.9%	2.4%	4.98	4.31	+0.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	127	571	128	55	11	82%	4.5	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	1.7%	4.38	3.48	+3.0
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	127	571	128	55	11	82%	4.5	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	1.7%	4.38	3.48	+3.0
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	23	127	571	128	55	11	82%	4.5	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	1.9%	4.38	3.51	+2.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	140	591	117	24	18	93%	5.0	17.0%	3.7%	13.3%	2.8%	4.11	3.67	+2.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	140	591	117	24	18	93%	5.0	17.0%	3.7%	13.3%	2.8%	4.11	3.67	+2.9
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	140	591	117	24	18	93%	5.0	19.8%	4.1%	15.7%	3.0%	4.11	3.61	+3.0
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	138	622	110	49	25	93%	4.6	15.2%	7.2%	8.1%	4.3%	6.20	5.07	+0.5
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	138	622	110	49	25	93%	4.6	15.2%	7.2%	8.1%	4.3%	6.20	5.07	+0.5
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	28	138	622	110	49	25	93%	4.6	17.7%	7.9%	9.8%	4.0%	6.20	4.93	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	7	48	225	34	27	5	39%	2.6	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	2.2%	4.72	4.74	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SEA	12	12	69	291	44	17	10	100%	5.8	15.2%	5.7%	9.5%	3.4%	4.82	4.76	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	66	280	43	18	10	100%	6.0	15.2%	6.3%	8.9%	3.5%	4.87	4.94	+0.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	58	243	41	15	9	100%	5.8	16.9%	6.0%	10.9%	3.8%	4.85	4.88	+0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	54	228	35	14	8	100%	6.0	15.2%	6.3%	8.9%	3.5%	4.87	4.94	+0.3
2029	32	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	48	203	34	12	8	100%	6.0	16.9%	6.0%	10.9%	3.8%	4.85	4.88	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	24	150	656	103	53	21	69%	4.3	15.7%	8.2%	7.5%	3.2%	4.82	4.54	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		47	32	200	876	138	71	28	69%	4.3	15.7%	8.2%	7.5%	3.2%	4.82	4.54	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		246	197	1085	4694	821	385	98	80%	4.4	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	2.1%	4.29	3.81	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	36	200	865	151	71	18	80%	4.4	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	2.1%	4.29	3.81	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 137 IPFIP 4.75 → 5.07 (+0.32)K% 17.7% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.69%	—	×0.860	15.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×0.900	7.16%
HR / BF /BF	3.90%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.75 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 139 IPFIP 3.63 → 3.67 (+0.04)K% 19.8% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.80%	—	×0.860	17.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.10%	—	×0.900	3.69%
HR / BF /BF	3.07%	÷1.204	×1.100	2.81%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 118 IPFIP 3.37 → 3.48 (+0.11)K% 22.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.90%	—	×0.860	19.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.92%	—	×0.900	8.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.142	×1.100	1.65%

Result: FIP 3.37 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 87 IPFIP 4.24 → 4.48 (+0.25)K% 21.1% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.07%	—	×0.860	18.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.47%	—	×0.900	10.32%
HR / BF /BF	2.67%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.92%

Result: FIP 4.24 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 47 IPFIP 3.51 → 3.93 (+0.42)K% 22.2% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.880	19.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.66%	—	×1.050	10.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.93%	÷0.978	×1.100	2.17%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.51 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 61 IPFIP 2.17 → 2.69 (+0.52)K% 31.1% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.08%	—	×0.810	25.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.78%	—	×1.100	5.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷1.249	×1.200	1.91%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 2.17 → 2.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 15 IPFIP 2.87 → 3.13 (+0.27)K% 19.4% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.44%	—	×0.880	17.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.050	11.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.907	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.87 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Salem Red Sox · 128 IPFIP 3.13 → 3.81 (+0.68)K% 21.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.00%	—	×0.770	16.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.61%	—	×1.150	11.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.07%	÷1.080	×1.250	1.24%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.13 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhonathan Díaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.91	16.0%	9.8%	124	+0.15	—	—	—
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	79
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	79
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	68
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	67
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	64
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	64
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	63
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	61
Logan Darnell L 2019 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP-	3.97	12.8%	6.1%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	454	61
Brian Johnson L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	15.5%	9.1%	3.6%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	506	61
Alejandro Soto L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	30	SP	3.96	14.9%	6.4%	2.4%	.367	4.15	15.9%	10.3%	97	+0.19	3.96	280	60
Eric Stults L 2009 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP	3.95	14.8%	10.8%	1.4%	.294	4.00	13.3%	6.9%	111	+0.05	3.50	773	59
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	59
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	59
Marco Tovar L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP	4.78	12.6%	5.6%	3.7%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	327	57
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	57
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	56
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	56
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	56
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	87	15.5%	7.2%	1.27	4.82
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*
Minnie Rojas ('66-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.3	87	17.1%*	6.5%*	1.35*	4.07*
Bryan Hickerson ('95)	2.0	81	15.9%	8.1%	1.16	4.72
Mike Jeffcoat ('83-'94, 1 WAR*)	2.5	83	15.2%*	6.7%*	1.16*	4.65*
JC Ramírez ('19)	1.4	72	16.4%	8.4%	1.44	4.71
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95