Jhonathan Díaz
P
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 29
LHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION85 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96106vR 115
ERA4.15
FIP4.20
K%17.0%
BB%6.0%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 150 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+0.7 (46%)
CH (19%)
SI (12%)
CU (12%)
FB-0.5 (23%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 13 | 12 | 60 | 247 | 57 | 18 | 2 | 92% | 4.6 | 15.7% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 1.1% | 2.85 | 3.55 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 13 | 12 | 60 | 247 | 57 | 18 | 2 | 92% | 4.6 | 23.1% | 7.3% | 15.8% | 0.8% | 2.85 | 2.53 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | 18 | 18 | 89 | 389 | 80 | 28 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 15.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 0.6% | 4.57 | 3.25 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | 18 | 18 | 89 | 389 | 80 | 28 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 20.6% | 7.2% | 13.4% | 1.0% | 4.57 | 2.83 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 157 | 640 | 151 | 41 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 1.5% | 3.09 | 3.38 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 157 | 640 | 151 | 41 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.6% | 6.4% | 17.2% | 1.1% | 3.09 | 2.54 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 27 | 27 | 128 | 562 | 118 | 54 | 6 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.2% | 11.0% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 3.86 | 3.77 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 27 | 27 | 128 | 562 | 118 | 54 | 6 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 1.1% | 3.86 | 3.13 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 14 | 89 | 382 | 101 | 27 | 6 | 74% | 4.7 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 14.6% | 1.3% | 4.03 | 2.90 | +2.4 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 14 | 89 | 382 | 101 | 27 | 6 | 74% | 4.7 | 26.4% | 7.1% | 19.4% | 1.6% | 4.03 | 2.62 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 62 | 273 | 57 | 30 | 5 | 93% | 4.5 | 18.9% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 4.48 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 62 | 273 | 57 | 30 | 5 | 93% | 4.5 | 20.9% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 1.8% | 4.48 | 3.76 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 9 | 94 | 417 | 83 | 50 | 10 | 21% | 2.2 | 18.5% | 12.0% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 4.66 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 9 | 94 | 417 | 83 | 50 | 10 | 21% | 2.2 | 19.9% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 4.98 | 4.31 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 23 | 127 | 571 | 128 | 55 | 11 | 82% | 4.5 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 1.5% | 4.38 | 3.53 | +2.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 23 | 127 | 571 | 128 | 55 | 11 | 82% | 4.5 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 1.9% | 4.38 | 3.51 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 140 | 591 | 117 | 24 | 18 | 93% | 5.0 | 17.4% | 4.3% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 4.11 | 3.49 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 140 | 591 | 117 | 24 | 18 | 93% | 5.0 | 19.8% | 4.1% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 3.61 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 19 | 18 | 85 | 384 | 67 | 32 | 13 | 95% | 4.5 | 15.4% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 5.82 | 4.96 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 47 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.0% | 6.0% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 4.15 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SEA | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 6.0% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 4.15 | 4.20 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 150 | 658 | 114 | 48 | 20 | — | — | 17.3% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 4.63 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 17.0% | 6.0% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 4.15 | 3.82 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 82 | 347 | 58 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.41 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 77 | 323 | 60 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.5% | 6.1% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.36 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 71 | 299 | 54 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.9% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 275 | 47 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.2% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 33 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 6.1% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 36 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 36 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.2% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 37 | 223 | 964 | 164 | 77 | 28 | 79% | 4.7 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.24 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 33 | 200 | 865 | 147 | 69 | 25 | 79% | 4.8 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 235 | 187 | 1032 | 4456 | 792 | 394 | 81 | 80% | 4.4 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 4.16 | 3.72 | +20.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 36 | 200 | 863 | 153 | 76 | 16 | 80% | 4.4 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 4.16 | 3.72 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jhonathan Díaz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 17.0% | 6.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.46 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 230 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.68 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.11 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.43 | 3.68 | 146 | 79 |
| Roy Merritt L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 78 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 69 |
| Jeff Locke L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.18 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 328 | 69 |
| Jason Vargas L 2029 · 4.29 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.29 | 14.8% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.63 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 285 | +0.34 | 3.87 | 478 | 68 |
| Hyun Jin Ryu L 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.94 | 15.2% | 1.6% | 3.5% | .241 | 3.49 | 23.2% | 18.4% | 392 | -0.45 | 2.87 | 725 | 65 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 64 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 63 |
| Nico Tellache L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 63 |
| Nick Additon L 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.06 | 19.3% | 9.1% | 0.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 217 | 63 |
| Duane Below L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 12.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | .266 | 4.42 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 140 | +0.88 | 3.54 | 189 | 62 |
| Marco Tovar L 2025 · 4.97 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.97 | 16.1% | 11.3% | 3.3% | .317 | 4.79 | 12.6% | 7.0% | 82 | -0.18 | 3.79 | 327 | 62 |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 62 |
| Andrew Albers L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.17 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .354 | 3.55 | 17.9% | 12.6% | 303 | -0.62 | 3.01 | 508 | 62 |
| Matt Lujan L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.13 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 227 | 61 |
| John Lamb L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.76 | 22.5% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 390 | 61 |
| Darin Gorski L 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.39 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 206 | 60 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.31 | 17.9% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 431 | 60 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.15 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 182 | 59 |
| Jose De Paula L 2024 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.35 | 8.7% | 7.8% | 0.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 118 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 76 | 17.5% | 6.5% | 1.16 | 4.39 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |