Nate Orf
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 630 | .323/.415/.477 | 9 | 10 | 100 | — | .244/.313/.376 | |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 543 | .289/.395/.407 | 6 | 22 | 82 | — | .231/.318/.317 | |
| 2018 | 28 | MLBMIL | 25 | .095/.240/.238 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0.2 | ||
| 2019 | 29 | AAASD | 499 | .272/.400/.410 | 11 | 11 | 79 | — | .215/.317/.320 | |
| 2020 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | ROK | Helena Brewers | — | 175 | 138 | 43 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 312 | 451 | 413 | 864 | 101 | 364 | 12 | 14 | 394 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | — | 538 | 451 | 130 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 55 | 74 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 288 | 392 | 386 | 778 | 98 | 336 | 14 | 10 | 351 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 511 | 424 | 116 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 63 | 70 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 274 | 382 | 368 | 749 | 94 | 319 | 14 | 12 | 337 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 35 | 28 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 464 | 559 | 571 | 1.130 | 107 | 481 | 6 | 14 | 489 | 217 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 381 | 326 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 47 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 288 | 370 | 383 | 753 | 95 | 327 | 12 | 8 | 332 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 156 | 128 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 211 | 340 | 242 | 582 | 31 | 237 | 10 | 12 | 280 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 507 | 434 | 139 | 32 | 11 | 9 | 54 | 75 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 320 | 404 | 507 | 911 | 187 | 362 | 15 | 11 | 393 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 123 | 98 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 337 | 458 | 347 | 805 | 10 | 388 | 12 | 11 | 373 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 25 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 240 | 238 | 478 | 143 | 83 | 32 | 12 | 233 | 41 | -2 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | 0.2 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 478 | 399 | 119 | 27 | 3 | 6 | 50 | 72 | 20 | 22 | 4 | 298 | 403 | 426 | 829 | 128 | 345 | 15 | 10 | 370 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 65 | 55 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 218 | 338 | 273 | 611 | 55 | 273 | 17 | 5 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | San Antonio Missions | — | 499 | 405 | 110 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 65 | 74 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 272 | 400 | 410 | 810 | 138 | 307 | 15 | 13 | 366 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 25 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 240 | 238 | 478 | 143 | 83 | 32 | 12 | 233 | 44 | -2 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | 0.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 175 | 148 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 230 | 341 | 291 | 632 | 61 | 282 | 17 | 9 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 538 | 466 | 116 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 40 | 111 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 249 | 337 | 339 | 676 | 90 | 308 | 21 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 511 | 446 | 110 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 88 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 247 | 325 | 336 | 662 | 90 | 288 | 17 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 381 | 337 | 82 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 63 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 243 | 307 | 315 | 622 | 71 | 276 | 17 | 6 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 156 | 136 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 199 | 288 | 228 | 516 | 29 | 220 | 13 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 507 | 450 | 110 | 21 | 7 | 8 | 38 | 101 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 244 | 313 | 376 | 689 | 131 | 284 | 20 | 7 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB MLE | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 25 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 240 | 238 | 478 | 143 | 83 | 32 | 12 | 229 | 41 | -2 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | 0.2 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 478 | 416 | 96 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 100 | 20 | 22 | 4 | 231 | 318 | 317 | 635 | 87 | 281 | 21 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 499 | 428 | 92 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 97 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 215 | 317 | 320 | 637 | 105 | 250 | 19 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 175 | 148 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 230 | 341 | 291 | 632 | 61 | 286 | 17 | 9 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | ROK RAW | Helena Brewers | — | 175 | 138 | 43 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 312 | 451 | 413 | 864 | 101 | 364 | 12 | 14 | 394 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 538 | 466 | 116 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 40 | 111 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 249 | 337 | 339 | 676 | 90 | 318 | 21 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ RAW | Brevard County Manatees | — | 538 | 451 | 130 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 55 | 74 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 288 | 392 | 386 | 778 | 98 | 336 | 14 | 10 | 351 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 546 | 476 | 118 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 44 | 94 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 248 | 327 | 336 | 663 | 88 | 301 | 17 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 546 | 452 | 129 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 68 | 72 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 285 | 393 | 381 | 773 | 95 | 331 | 13 | 12 | 347 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 472 | 109 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 82 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 231 | 303 | 290 | 594 | 59 | 272 | 15 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 537 | 454 | 121 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 63 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 267 | 361 | 344 | 704 | 77 | 301 | 12 | 9 | 317 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 630 | 553 | 137 | 27 | 9 | 9 | 47 | 126 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 248 | 324 | 378 | 702 | 130 | 298 | 20 | 7 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 630 | 532 | 172 | 33 | 11 | 9 | 68 | 90 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 323 | 415 | 477 | 892 | 154 | 367 | 14 | 11 | 389 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 568 | 490 | 111 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 122 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 227 | 322 | 318 | 640 | 92 | 285 | 21 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 568 | 475 | 133 | 30 | 3 | 7 | 56 | 91 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 280 | 388 | 400 | 788 | 120 | 328 | 16 | 10 | 355 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 499 | 428 | 92 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 97 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 215 | 317 | 320 | 637 | 105 | 256 | 19 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA RAW | San Antonio Missions | — | 499 | 405 | 110 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 65 | 74 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 272 | 400 | 410 | 810 | 138 | 307 | 15 | 13 | 366 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 175 | 148 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 230 | 341 | 291 | 632 | 61 | 282 | 17 | 9 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 538 | 471 | 116 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 40 | 111 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 246 | 337 | 335 | 673 | 89 | 308 | 21 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 546 | 485 | 118 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 44 | 94 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 243 | 327 | 330 | 657 | 87 | 288 | 17 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 483 | 109 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 82 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 226 | 303 | 284 | 587 | 58 | 260 | 15 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 630 | 563 | 137 | 27 | 9 | 9 | 47 | 126 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 243 | 324 | 371 | 695 | 128 | 284 | 20 | 7 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 568 | 494 | 111 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 122 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 225 | 322 | 316 | 638 | 91 | 271 | 21 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 499 | 432 | 92 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 97 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 213 | 317 | 317 | 634 | 104 | 250 | 19 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 25 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 240 | 238 | 478 | 143 | 83 | 32 | 12 | 233 | 81 | -2 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 546 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 78 | 208 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 95 | 240 | 238 | 478 | 143 | 83 | 32 | 12 | 233 | 81 | -44 | +5 | +22 | +53 | +14 | 5.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3493 | 3033 | 717 | 149 | 22 | 30 | 261 | 662 | 126 | 68 | 28 | 236 | 323 | 330 | 653 | 93 | 289 | 19 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -2 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 564 | 134 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 123 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 238 | 323 | 333 | 657 | 96 | 290 | 19 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -44 | +5 | +22 | +53 | +14 | 5.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAASan Antonio Missions · 499 PAwOBA .358 → .285 (−73)K% 14.8% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.83% | ÷0.979 | ×1.290 | — | — | 19.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.83% | ÷1.055 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 8.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.41% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 4.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷0.995 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 19.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.34% | ÷1.045 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 4.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.30% | ÷0.930 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 0.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.32% | ÷0.977 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 2.61% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 86, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .358 → .285; ISO .138 → .108; BABIP .307 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 478 PAwOBA .363 → .289 (−74)K% 15.1% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.06% | ÷0.925 | ×1.290 | — | — | 21.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.62% | ÷0.985 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 6.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.18% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 4.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.38% | ÷1.014 | ×0.900 | ×0.962 | ×0.992 | 21.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.26% | ÷1.014 | ×0.810 | ×0.962 | ×0.992 | 6.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.92% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.962 | ×0.992 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.83% | ÷1.124 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 1.26% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 85, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .363 → .289; ISO .128 → .092; BABIP .345 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 507 PAwOBA .389 → .302 (−87)K% 14.8% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.79% | ÷0.953 | ×1.290 | — | — | 20.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.45% | ÷0.995 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 7.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.23% | ÷1.018 | ×0.900 | ×0.955 | ×1.003 | 20.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.91% | ÷1.163 | ×0.810 | ×0.955 | ×1.003 | 5.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.06% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.955 | ×1.003 | 2.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.51% | ÷0.933 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 2.10% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 104, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .389 → .302; ISO .187 → .136; BABIP .362 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 381 PAwOBA .326 → .271 (−55)K% 12.3% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.34% | ÷0.964 | ×1.290 | — | — | 16.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.14% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 5.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.62% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 2.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.09% | ÷1.046 | ×0.900 | ×1.015 | ×1.018 | 22.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.81% | ÷1.196 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×1.018 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×1.018 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.72% | ÷0.973 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 0.59% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 109, 2B 139, 3B 130, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .326 → .271; ISO .095 → .071; BABIP .327 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AABiloxi Shuckers · 156 PAwOBA .277 → .237 (−40)K% 10.3% → 12.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.26% | ÷0.999 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷1.152 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 6.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.49% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 3.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.54% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×0.988 | 19.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.955 | ×0.910 | ×0.992 | ×0.988 | 3.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.922 | ×0.880 | ×0.992 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.243 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 95, 2B 91, 3B 84, K 100, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .277 → .237; ISO .031 → .031; BABIP .237 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AABiloxi Shuckers · 511 PAwOBA .331 → .289 (−42)K% 13.7% → 17.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.70% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.13% | ÷1.018 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 8.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.15% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.73% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×0.998 | 20.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.34% | ÷0.943 | ×0.910 | ×0.992 | ×0.998 | 7.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.13% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.992 | ×0.998 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.084 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.42% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .331 → .289; ISO .094 → .092; BABIP .319 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Brevard County Manatees · 538 PAwOBA .346 → .300 (−47)K% 13.8% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.75% | ÷0.947 | ×1.420 | — | — | 20.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.22% | ÷1.029 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 7.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.09% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 3.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.93% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 22.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.96% | ÷0.937 | ×0.960 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 8.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.53% | ÷0.954 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.48% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 89, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .346 → .300; ISO .098 → .093; BABIP .336 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ROKHelena Brewers · 175 PAwOBA .387 → .286 (−101)K% 12.0% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 17.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.965 | 8.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.71% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 3.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.013 | ×0.965 | 21.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.013 | ×0.965 | 6.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.013 | ×0.965 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .387 → .286; ISO .101 → .075; BABIP .364 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .