T.J. Zeuch

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 31 RHP 6'7" / 245 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	MIX3 levels	16	16	56	8.31	5.55	21.9%	10.7%	-0.4	K 17.8% · BB 11.3% · FIP 5.50
2023	27	AAAPHI	16	15	75	5.06	4.53	13.2%	9.1%	—	K 11.4% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.66
2024	28	AAAWSH	11	1	22	11.69	8.47	9.8%	7.4%	—	K 8.5% · BB 6.6% · FIP 7.74
2027PROJ	31	MLBWSH	9	9	55	5.35	5.25	18.7%	11.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBWSH	3	3	19	5.35	5.41	18.4%	11.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBWSH	4	4	26	5.47	5.61	17.9%	11.9%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

FB Velo14

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Elian Leyva (age 30) · Reinier Roibal (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.35

FIP5.25

K%18.7%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD2020

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p1015.9%

p107.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.437

CT-0.9

SL-1.1

CH-1.8

FB-7.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	11	48	16	2	1	100%	3.7	33.3%	4.2%	29.2%	2.1%	6.55	1.96	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	11	48	16	2	1	100%	3.7	33.3%	4.2%	29.2%	2.1%	6.55	1.92	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	66	296	51	19	4	93%	4.4	13.5%	7.4%	6.0%	1.1%	3.56	3.52	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	66	296	51	19	4	93%	4.4	17.2%	6.4%	10.8%	1.4%	3.56	3.21	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	156	650	105	40	11	100%	5.8	12.9%	6.8%	6.1%	2.0%	3.17	3.99	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	156	650	105	40	11	100%	5.8	16.2%	6.2%	10.0%	1.7%	3.17	3.44	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	18	109	470	71	45	8	90%	5.5	12.5%	10.3%	2.2%	2.0%	3.95	4.43	+0.6
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	18	109	470	71	45	8	90%	5.5	15.1%	9.6%	5.5%	1.7%	3.95	3.99	+1.2
2020	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	3	1	11	47	3	4	1	33%	3.8	6.4%	8.5%	-2.1%	2.1%	1.59	4.81	-0.0
2020	24	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	3	1	11	47	3	4	1	33%	3.8	6.4%	8.5%	-2.1%	2.1%	1.59	4.78	-0.0
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	111	489	85	37	20	65%	4.3	15.5%	7.9%	7.6%	4.5%	4.69	5.28	-0.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	17	111	489	85	37	20	65%	4.3	17.4%	7.6%	9.8%	4.1%	4.69	4.91	-0.0
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	56	270	59	29	13	100%	3.5	17.8%	11.3%	6.4%	4.5%	8.31	5.50	-0.4
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	56	270	59	29	13	100%	3.5	21.9%	10.7%	11.1%	4.8%	8.31	5.55	-0.4
2023	27	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	16	15	75	318	42	29	8	94%	4.7	11.4%	8.2%	3.2%	2.7%	5.06	4.66	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	16	15	75	318	42	29	8	94%	4.7	13.2%	9.1%	4.1%	2.5%	5.06	4.53	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	11	1	22	122	12	9	9	9%	2.0	8.5%	6.6%	1.8%	8.2%	11.69	7.74	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	11	1	22	122	12	9	9	9%	2.0	8.5%	6.6%	1.8%	8.2%	11.69	7.74	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	11	1	22	122	12	9	9	9%	2.0	9.8%	7.4%	2.5%	7.4%	11.69	8.47	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	10	60	284	36	31	14	62%	3.7	12.7%	10.9%	1.8%	4.9%	6.49	6.50	-1.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	WSH	9	9	55	232	43	27	8	100%	6.1	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	3.5%	5.35	5.25	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	51	216	40	25	8	100%	5.7	18.4%	11.6%	6.8%	3.7%	5.35	5.41	-0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	47	198	36	24	8	100%	5.9	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	3.9%	5.47	5.61	-0.4
2030	34	MLB MLE	WSH	7	7	43	181	31	22	7	100%	6.1	17.3%	12.2%	5.0%	4.1%	5.67	5.85	-0.4
2028	32	MLB CTX	WSH	3	3	19	80	15	9	3	100%	6.3	18.4%	11.6%	6.8%	3.7%	5.35	5.41	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	WSH	4	4	26	110	20	13	4	100%	6.5	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	3.9%	5.47	5.61	-0.2
2030	34	MLB CTX	WSH	4	4	22	93	16	11	4	100%	5.5	17.3%	12.2%	5.0%	4.1%	5.67	5.85	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		27	21	126	564	86	64	25	78%	4.7	15.3%	11.4%	3.8%	4.4%	5.97	5.69	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	33	200	895	136	102	40	78%	4.7	15.3%	11.4%	3.8%	4.4%	5.97	5.69	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		137	112	618	2710	372	224	81	82%	4.5	13.7%	8.3%	5.5%	3.0%	4.66	4.63	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	877	120	72	26	82%	4.5	13.7%	8.3%	5.5%	3.0%	4.66	4.63	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
T.J. Zeuch (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	18.7%	11.4%	3.5%	—	5.61	17.9%	6.0%	141	+0.36	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	83
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	74
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	74
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	72
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	71
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	71
André Rienzo R 2019 · 5.33 FIP	31	SP	5.33	17.9%	11.8%	4.1%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	321	71
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	70
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	68
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	31	SP-	4.92	14.9%	7.2%	4.0%	.277	5.19	16.3%	8.8%	259	+0.27	3.97	567	68
Erik Hiljus R 2002 · 6.07 FIP	29	SP	6.07	14.1%	9.7%	5.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	112	68
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	68
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	67
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	67
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	66
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	66
Andres Ivan Meza R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	12.5%	8.5%	1.8%	.351	4.33	11.7%	4.0%	89	+0.19	4.14	275	66
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	66
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	65
Alex Caldera R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	30	SP	4.54	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	120	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	51	16.8%	11.5%	1.57	5.69
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*