David Sheaffer
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | AAA/AA/A+/A3 orgs | 218 | .274/.335/.452 | 7 | 1 | 74 | — | .228/.274/.401 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA/AA/A+SEA | 187 | .244/.306/.351 | 2 | 1 | 44 | — | .210/.252/.303 |
| 2022 | 27 | A+/A2 orgs | 151 | .207/.282/.326 | 2 | 0 | 12 | — | .151/.208/.245 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | AZL Mariners | — | 147 | 134 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 201 | 262 | 358 | 620 | 157 | 223 | 20 | 7 | 273 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 18 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 278 | 500 | 778 | 222 | 400 | 39 | 0 | 338 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 19 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 316 | 375 | 691 | 188 | 167 | 16 | 16 | 315 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 86 | 77 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 247 | 310 | 442 | 751 | 195 | 268 | 22 | 8 | 325 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | West Virginia Power | — | 95 | 86 | 27 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 314 | 372 | 465 | 837 | 151 | 433 | 27 | 6 | 369 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 16 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 125 | 188 | 312 | 62 | 167 | 25 | 0 | 137 | -37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 86 | 72 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 381 | 403 | 784 | 125 | 327 | 20 | 13 | 349 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 85 | 80 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 237 | 265 | 338 | 603 | 100 | 311 | 25 | 4 | 262 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 71 | 66 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 243 | 333 | 576 | 136 | 273 | 31 | 6 | 254 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 80 | 69 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 316 | 319 | 635 | 101 | 269 | 21 | 10 | 291 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 147 | 138 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 130 | 172 | 232 | 404 | 101 | 160 | 29 | 4 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 18 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 222 | 444 | 667 | 222 | 364 | 50 | 0 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 19 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 353 | 616 | 176 | 161 | 21 | 11 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 86 | 79 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 262 | 430 | 692 | 215 | 236 | 30 | 6 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 95 | 88 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 298 | 375 | 673 | 125 | 369 | 36 | 4 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 16 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 125 | 188 | 312 | 62 | 154 | 31 | 0 | 113 | -37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 86 | 76 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 321 | 368 | 690 | 118 | 289 | 23 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 85 | 81 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 205 | 259 | 464 | 74 | 264 | 34 | 2 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 71 | 67 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 171 | 239 | 410 | 104 | 207 | 41 | 4 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 80 | 72 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 241 | 250 | 491 | 83 | 206 | 30 | 6 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 147 | 138 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 130 | 172 | 232 | 404 | 101 | 158 | 29 | 4 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK RAW | AZL Mariners | — | 147 | 134 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 201 | 262 | 358 | 620 | 157 | 223 | 20 | 7 | 273 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 218 | 202 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 73 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 274 | 386 | 661 | 158 | 312 | 33 | 5 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A RAW | 4 teams | — | 218 | 197 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 274 | 335 | 452 | 787 | 178 | 341 | 25 | 7 | 344 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 187 | 174 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 54 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 246 | 299 | 545 | 92 | 279 | 29 | 4 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 187 | 168 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 306 | 351 | 657 | 107 | 305 | 22 | 7 | 291 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 151 | 139 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 201 | 216 | 417 | 72 | 218 | 35 | 5 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 151 | 135 | 28 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 282 | 326 | 608 | 119 | 271 | 26 | 8 | 274 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 147 | 139 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 129 | 172 | 230 | 403 | 101 | 160 | 29 | 4 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 218 | 203 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 73 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 274 | 384 | 659 | 158 | 298 | 33 | 5 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 187 | 176 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 54 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 246 | 295 | 541 | 91 | 266 | 29 | 4 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 151 | 140 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 201 | 214 | 416 | 71 | 206 | 35 | 5 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 703 | 653 | 120 | 29 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 222 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 184 | 230 | 294 | 524 | 110 | 249 | 32 | 5 | 226 | 39 | -51 | +1 | +0 | +13 | +15 | -2.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 111 | 27 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 205 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 184 | 231 | 295 | 526 | 111 | 249 | 32 | 5 | 226 | 39 | -47 | +1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AModesto Nuts · 80 PAwOBA .288 → .206 (−82)K% 21.2% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.25% | ÷0.971 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.950 | 6.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.950 | 1.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | 15.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.060 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | 5.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.855 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.950 | 1.71% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 109, 2B 112, 3B 112, K 94, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.0 → −5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .288 → .206; ISO .101 → .076; BABIP .269 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Everett AquaSox · 71 PAwOBA .250 → .164 (−86)K% 31.0% → 41.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.99% | ÷1.007 | ×1.350 | — | — | 41.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.63% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.958 | 3.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.021 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 11.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.048 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 9.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.237 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.958 | 1.46% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 104, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .250 → .164; ISO .136 → .084; BABIP .273 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAArkansas Travelers · 86 PAwOBA .348 → .293 (−56)K% 19.8% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.77% | ÷1.013 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.79% | ÷1.144 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 7.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.999 | ×0.940 | ×0.960 | ×0.988 | 24.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷0.975 | ×0.870 | ×0.960 | ×0.988 | 4.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.960 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.64% | ÷0.892 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 3.14% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 103, BB 129 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .348 → .293; ISO .125 → .113; BABIP .327 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 85 PAwOBA .261 → .197 (−64)K% 24.7% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.71% | ÷0.985 | ×1.350 | — | — | 33.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.53% | ÷1.125 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 2.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.34% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×0.968 | 18.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.17% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.968 | 7.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷0.929 | ×0.820 | ×0.999 | ×0.968 | 1.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.078 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 86, K 97, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .261 → .197; ISO .100 → .071; BABIP .311 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAATacoma Rainiers · 16 PAwOBA .133 → .113 (−20)K% 25.0% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 8.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 7.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 98, 3B 95, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .133 → .113; ISO .062 → .050; BABIP .167 → .154. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AWest Virginia Power · 95 PAwOBA .363 → .278 (−85)K% 27.4% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.37% | ÷1.026 | ×1.340 | — | — | 35.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.32% | ÷1.013 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 4.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 1.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 23.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.977 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 13.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.016 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 1.32% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .363 → .278; ISO .151 → .114; BABIP .433 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Modesto Nuts · 86 PAwOBA .323 → .286 (−37)K% 22.1% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.09% | ÷0.976 | ×1.340 | — | — | 30.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.14% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 5.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.69% | ÷1.005 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 18.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.17% | ÷1.050 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.988 | 3.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.022 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.768 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 8.16% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 54, 1B 101, 2B 110, 3B 104, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .323 → .286; ISO .195 → .204; BABIP .268 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAArkansas Travelers · 19 PAwOBA .307 → .280 (−27)K% 15.8% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.010 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 11.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷0.966 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 14.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.922 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 7.94% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 84, K 106, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .307 → .280; ISO .188 → .199; BABIP .167 → .161. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).