A.J. Puckett

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	27	AAMississippi B…	33	5	59	7.36	3.41	26.2%	8.9%	—	K 21.3% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.30
2023	28	MIX2 levels	47	3	64	4.52	3.74	19.4%	10.0%	—	K 16.2% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.50
2025	30	AACHC	46	0	51	3.35	2.86	20.4%	8.0%	—	K 16.5% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.46
2027PROJ	32	MLBCHC	61	0	64	4.87	4.87	16.4%	9.9%	-0.2
2028PROJ31% MLB	33	MLBCHC	17	0	18	4.97	5.07	16.6%	10.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ27% MLB	34	MLBCHC	13	0	14	5.13	5.28	16.5%	10.7%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command40

CompsIvan Maldonado (age 35) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 34) · Marco Antonio Duarte (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%16.4%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	59	237	45	15	5	100%	4.5	13.4%	8.6%	4.7%	1.9%	3.68	4.12	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	59	237	45	15	5	100%	4.5	19.0%	6.3%	12.7%	2.1%	3.68	3.44	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	25	25	136	590	119	51	9	100%	5.4	15.5%	9.9%	5.6%	1.5%	3.98	3.87	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	25	25	136	590	119	51	9	100%	5.4	20.2%	8.6%	11.5%	1.5%	3.98	3.34	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	81	338	72	32	3	75%	4.0	16.8%	10.7%	6.1%	1.3%	2.90	3.73	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	15	81	338	72	32	3	75%	4.0	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	0.9%	2.90	2.99	—
2022	27	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	33	5	59	282	74	25	7	15%	1.8	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.2%	7.36	4.30	—
2022	27	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	33	5	59	282	74	25	7	15%	1.8	26.2%	8.9%	17.4%	2.5%	7.36	3.41	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	3	64	279	54	28	5	6%	1.4	16.2%	10.2%	6.0%	2.7%	4.52	4.50	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	3	64	279	54	28	5	6%	1.4	19.4%	10.0%	9.3%	1.8%	4.52	3.74	—
2025	30	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	46	0	51	226	46	18	2	0%	1.1	16.5%	8.8%	7.7%	1.2%	3.35	3.46	—
2025	30	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	46	0	51	226	46	18	2	0%	1.1	16.5%	8.8%	7.7%	1.2%	3.35	3.46	—
2025	30	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	46	0	51	226	46	18	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	0.9%	3.35	2.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	CHC	61	0	64	270	44	27	7	0%	1.0	16.4%	9.9%	6.5%	2.8%	4.87	4.87	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CHC	56	0	59	248	41	25	8	0%	1.0	16.6%	10.3%	6.3%	3.1%	4.97	5.07	-0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	CHC	51	0	53	225	37	24	8	0%	1.0	16.5%	10.7%	5.8%	3.4%	5.13	5.28	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	CHC	17	0	18	76	13	8	2	0%	1.1	16.6%	10.3%	6.3%	3.1%	4.97	5.07	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	CHC	13	0	14	59	10	6	2	0%	1.1	16.5%	10.7%	5.8%	3.4%	5.13	5.28	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	0	33	138	23	14	4	0%	1.1	16.5%	10.5%	6.1%	3.2%	5.04	4.78	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	141	86	24	0%	1.1	16.5%	10.5%	6.1%	3.2%	5.04	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		184	61	448	1952	322	191	37	33%	2.4	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	1.9%	4.20	3.98	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	27	200	871	144	85	16	33%	2.4	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	1.9%	4.20	3.98	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
A.J. Puckett (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	16.4%	9.9%	2.8%	—	5.17	16.5%	6.1%	112	+0.30	—	—	—
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	83
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	80
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	77
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	77
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	75
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	74
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	74
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	72
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	72
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2017 · 5.96 FIP	32	SW	5.96	10.0%	13.0%	3.8%	.316	4.50	21.3%	16.2%	15	-1.46	3.39	212	72
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	70
Ramon Delgado R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	30	SW	4.31	11.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	135	70
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	70
Mike Fyhrie R 2002 · 3.86 FIP	32	SW	3.86	13.7%	9.0%	1.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	173	70
Jesse Estrada R 2016 · 3.80 FIP	32	SU	3.80	10.1%	4.0%	1.9%	.285	4.89	11.2%	5.1%	180	+1.09	3.80	257	69
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	68
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	68
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	67
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	16.5%	10.3%	1.18	4.98
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*