Shed Long Jr.

Pos2B

B/TL/R

Born1995-08-22

Age (2027)31

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTL

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2023	27	INTLCangrejeros d…	117	.296/.405/.429	1	3	140	—
2024	28	INTLPuerto Rico	154	.226/.303/.270	0	4	66	—
2025	29	INTLPuerto Rico	127	.286/.400/.438	2	1	138	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019-2021

Barrel%30

Speed30

Avg EV28

xwOBA10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	17	ROK	AZL Reds	—	88	78	20	2	0	1	8	17	1	1	1	256	333	321	654	64	317	19	9	299	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	93	87	15	3	0	0	5	18	0	2	1	172	217	207	424	34	217	19	5	196	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Dayton Dragons	—	173	152	43	7	2	6	18	31	1	2	3	283	363	474	836	191	322	18	10	366	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	159	143	46	6	4	4	10	35	3	5	1	322	378	503	882	182	393	22	6	381	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	Dayton Dragons	—	389	335	94	24	1	11	44	85	5	16	3	281	372	457	829	176	346	22	11	366	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	160	141	32	6	2	3	19	31	0	3	1	227	319	362	680	135	271	19	12	309	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	279	247	77	16	1	13	27	63	2	6	3	312	384	543	927	231	368	23	10	402	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	522	452	118	22	5	12	57	123	8	19	6	261	354	412	765	150	333	24	11	342	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	66	58	14	2	1	0	8	15	0	3	1	241	333	310	644	69	326	23	12	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	168	152	40	12	1	5	16	40	0	3	3	263	333	454	787	191	327	24	10	348	124	+5	-1	-3	+1	+4	0.7
2019	23	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	250	226	62	7	4	9	20	65	1	1	3	274	336	460	796	186	346	26	8	347	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	128	117	20	5	0	3	11	37	0	4	0	171	242	291	533	120	221	29	9	244	53	-7	+1	-2	+0	+3	-0.5
2021	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	121	111	22	4	1	4	9	39	0	1	0	198	258	360	619	162	265	32	7	274	74	-4	+0	-3	-2	+3	-0.5
2021	25	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	36	31	10	3	0	1	5	5	0	0	0	323	417	516	933	194	360	14	14	413	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	88	76	16	5	0	0	11	24	1	2	2	211	318	276	594	66	308	27	12	282	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	20	16	3	0	1	0	4	8	0	0	0	188	350	312	662	125	375	40	20	311	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	33	30	6	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	1	200	250	233	483	33	222	9	6	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	117	98	29	10	0	1	16	9	2	3	0	296	405	429	834	133	315	8	14	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	154	137	31	6	0	0	14	31	1	4	2	226	303	270	573	44	292	20	9	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	127	105	30	8	1	2	19	14	1	1	1	286	400	438	838	152	308	11	15	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	417	380	82	21	2	12	36	116	0	8	3	216	284	376	660	161	278	28	9	295	85	-7	+0	-8	+0	+9	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	17	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	—	88	81	16	1	0	1	5	24	1	1	1	198	253	247	500	49	274	27	6	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	93	89	12	2	0	0	3	26	0	2	1	135	163	157	320	22	184	28	3	143	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	173	157	38	6	2	4	13	44	1	2	3	242	304	382	686	140	303	25	8	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	159	146	39	5	3	3	7	49	3	5	1	267	314	404	718	137	365	31	4	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	389	350	78	20	1	7	29	117	5	16	3	223	292	346	637	123	305	30	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	160	148	30	6	2	2	12	39	0	3	1	203	263	311	573	108	252	24	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	279	254	68	14	1	11	20	90	2	6	3	268	326	461	787	193	356	32	7	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	522	469	114	21	5	11	40	146	8	19	6	243	313	380	693	136	320	28	8	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	168	152	40	12	1	5	16	40	0	3	3	263	333	454	787	191	327	24	10	352	124	+5	-1	-3	+1	+4	0.7
2019	23	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	250	232	52	5	3	7	14	85	1	1	3	224	271	362	633	138	312	34	6	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	128	117	20	5	0	3	11	37	0	4	0	171	242	291	533	120	221	29	9	246	53	-7	+1	-2	+0	+3	-0.5
2021	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	121	111	22	4	1	4	9	39	0	1	0	198	258	360	619	162	265	32	7	277	74	-4	+0	-3	-2	+3	-0.5
2021	25	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	36	33	10	3	0	1	3	6	0	0	0	303	361	485	846	182	338	17	8	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	88	80	15	4	0	0	7	28	1	2	2	188	261	237	499	50	302	32	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	20	18	2	0	1	0	2	11	0	0	0	111	200	222	422	111	318	55	10	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	—	88	81	16	1	0	1	5	24	1	1	1	198	253	247	500	49	268	27	6	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	—	88	78	20	2	0	1	8	17	1	1	1	256	333	321	654	64	317	19	9	299	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	93	89	12	2	0	0	3	26	0	2	1	135	163	157	320	22	190	28	3	143	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	—	93	87	15	3	0	0	5	18	0	2	1	172	217	207	424	34	217	19	5	196	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	173	157	38	6	2	4	13	44	1	2	3	242	304	382	686	140	312	25	8	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	173	152	43	7	2	6	18	31	1	2	3	283	363	474	836	191	322	18	10	366	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	548	496	118	25	3	11	36	167	8	21	4	238	300	367	667	129	332	30	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	548	478	140	30	5	15	54	120	8	21	4	293	374	471	845	178	360	22	10	370	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	439	402	97	20	3	13	32	128	2	9	4	241	300	403	703	162	318	29	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	439	388	109	22	3	16	46	94	2	9	4	281	360	477	837	196	331	21	10	368	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	588	530	126	23	5	12	45	164	8	22	7	238	307	368	675	130	321	28	8	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	588	510	132	24	6	12	65	138	8	22	7	259	352	400	752	141	332	23	11	337	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	418	384	93	18	4	12	30	125	1	4	6	242	299	404	702	161	327	30	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	418	378	102	19	5	14	36	105	1	4	6	270	335	458	793	188	338	25	9	348	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	128	117	20	5	0	3	11	37	0	4	0	171	242	291	533	120	221	29	9	246	53	-7	+1	-2	+0	+3	-0.5
2020	24	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	128	117	20	5	0	3	11	37	0	4	0	171	242	291	533	120	221	29	9	244	53	-7	+1	-2	+0	+3	-0.5
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	157	144	32	7	1	5	12	45	0	1	0	222	282	389	671	167	287	29	8	293	84	-3	+0	-3	-2	+3	-0.4
2021	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	157	142	32	7	1	5	14	44	0	1	0	225	295	394	689	169	290	28	9	306	84	-3	+0	-3	-2	+3	-0.4
2022	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	141	126	24	6	1	0	13	51	1	2	3	190	271	254	525	63	320	36	9	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	141	122	25	6	1	0	17	35	1	2	3	205	307	270	578	66	287	25	12	271	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL MLE	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	117	98	29	10	0	1	16	9	2	3	0	296	405	429	834	133	315	8	14	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL RAW	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	117	98	29	10	0	1	16	9	2	3	0	296	405	429	834	133	315	8	14	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	INTL MLE	Puerto Rico	—	154	137	31	6	0	0	14	31	1	4	2	226	303	270	573	44	292	20	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	INTL RAW	Puerto Rico	—	154	137	31	6	0	0	14	31	1	4	2	226	303	270	573	44	292	20	9	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL MLE	Puerto Rico	—	127	105	30	8	1	2	19	14	1	1	1	286	400	438	838	152	308	11	15	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL RAW	Puerto Rico	—	127	105	30	8	1	2	19	14	1	1	1	286	400	438	838	152	308	11	15	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	—	88	82	16	1	0	1	5	24	1	1	1	195	253	244	497	49	274	27	6	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	93	90	12	2	0	0	3	26	0	2	1	133	163	156	319	22	184	28	3	143	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	173	157	38	6	2	4	13	44	1	2	3	242	304	382	686	140	303	25	8	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	548	499	118	25	3	11	36	167	8	21	4	236	300	365	665	128	322	30	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	439	402	97	20	3	13	32	128	2	9	4	241	300	403	703	162	318	29	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	588	530	126	23	5	12	45	164	8	22	7	238	307	368	675	130	320	28	8	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	418	384	93	18	4	12	30	125	1	4	6	242	299	404	702	161	318	30	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	128	116	20	5	0	3	11	37	0	4	0	172	242	293	535	121	221	29	9	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	157	144	32	7	1	5	12	45	0	1	0	222	282	389	671	167	282	29	8	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	141	126	24	6	1	0	13	51	1	2	3	190	271	254	525	63	305	36	9	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	417	380	82	21	2	12	36	116	0	8	3	216	284	376	660	161	278	28	9	295	55	-7	+0	-8	+0	+9	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	128	33	3	19	56	181	0	12	5	216	284	378	662	162	278	28	9	295	55	-11	+1	-12	+0	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	3171	2866	666	137	20	64	249	865	26	76	32	232	300	361	661	129	309	27	8	249	55	-7	+0	-8	+0	+9	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	136	28	4	13	51	177	5	16	7	232	298	359	658	128	308	27	8	249	55	-11	+1	-12	+0	+14	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 88 PAwOBA .275 → .238 (−37)K% 27.3% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.27%	÷1.017	×1.200	—	—	32.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.048	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.25%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.07%
Singles /BIP	21.15%	÷0.952	×0.930	×1.050	×1.003	21.76%
Doubles /BIP	9.62%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×1.003	8.40%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.130	×0.970	×1.050	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.970	×0.700	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .275 → .238; ISO .066 → .057; BABIP .308 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 20 PAwOBA .304 → .206 (−98)K% 40.0% → 52.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	40.00%	÷0.991	×1.310	—	—	52.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷0.966	×0.600	—	×0.958	11.90%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×0.958	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.980	×0.870	—	×0.958	21.27%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.955	×0.780	—	×0.958	0.00%
Triples /BIP	12.50%	÷0.964	×0.850	—	×0.958	10.56%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.029	×0.880	—	×0.958	0.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 93, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .304 → .206; ISO .125 → .093; BABIP .375 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAATacoma Rainiers · 36 PAwOBA .402 → .346 (−56)K% 13.9% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.89%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	16.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.89%	÷1.045	×0.690	—	×1.018	9.34%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷0.952	×0.930	—	×1.018	22.95%
Doubles /BIP	11.54%	÷0.989	×0.830	—	×1.018	9.85%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.977	×0.920	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷0.970	×0.700	—	×1.018	2.83%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 98, 3B 95, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .402 → .346; ISO .194 → .157; BABIP .360 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAATacoma Rainiers · 250 PAwOBA .339 → .271 (−69)K% 26.0% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.00%	÷0.990	×1.290	—	—	33.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.00%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×1.048	5.73%
HBP% /PA	0.40%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.41%
Singles /BIP	26.09%	÷0.985	×0.900	×0.981	×1.048	24.51%
Doubles /BIP	4.35%	÷0.998	×0.810	×0.981	×1.048	3.63%
Triples /BIP	2.48%	÷1.073	×0.810	×0.981	×1.048	1.93%
Home runs /BIP	5.59%	÷1.049	×0.780	—	×1.048	4.36%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 115, K 98, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .339 → .271; ISO .186 → .136; BABIP .346 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 522 PAwOBA .333 → .299 (−34)K% 23.6% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.56%	÷1.030	×1.220	—	—	27.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.73%	÷0.967	×0.680	—	×1.027	7.75%
HBP% /PA	1.53%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	1.32%
Singles /BIP	24.01%	÷1.023	×0.920	×1.050	×1.027	23.28%
Doubles /BIP	6.69%	÷1.039	×0.910	×1.050	×1.027	6.32%
Triples /BIP	1.52%	÷1.006	×0.880	×1.050	×1.027	1.43%
Home runs /BIP	3.65%	÷0.909	×0.800	—	×1.027	3.30%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 105, 2B 108, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .333 → .299; ISO .150 → .139; BABIP .333 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Daytona Tortugas · 279 PAwOBA .393 → .341 (−52)K% 22.6% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.58%	÷0.996	×1.420	—	—	32.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.96%	÷0.964	×0.750	—	×1.012	7.06%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	0.67%
Singles /BIP	25.54%	÷0.981	×0.920	×1.023	×1.012	24.80%
Doubles /BIP	8.70%	÷1.009	×0.960	×1.023	×1.012	8.56%
Triples /BIP	0.54%	÷0.951	×0.810	×1.023	×1.012	0.48%
Home runs /BIP	7.07%	÷0.932	×0.880	—	×1.012	6.75%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 96, 2B 102, 3B 90, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .393 → .341; ISO .231 → .202; BABIP .368 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 160 PAwOBA .301 → .245 (−56)K% 19.4% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.38%	÷0.979	×1.220	—	—	24.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.88%	÷1.095	×0.680	—	×1.042	7.68%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.09%	÷1.018	×0.920	×0.996	×1.042	17.91%
Doubles /BIP	5.45%	÷0.997	×0.910	×0.996	×1.042	5.17%
Triples /BIP	1.82%	÷0.943	×0.880	×0.996	×1.042	1.76%
Home runs /BIP	2.73%	÷1.399	×0.800	—	×1.042	1.62%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 180, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 89, K 96, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .301 → .245; ISO .135 → .105; BABIP .271 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ADayton Dragons · 389 PAwOBA .357 → .278 (−79)K% 21.9% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.85%	÷0.986	×1.360	—	—	30.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.31%	÷1.052	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.53%
HBP% /PA	1.29%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.02%
Singles /BIP	23.20%	÷1.021	×0.920	×0.991	×1.015	21.04%
Doubles /BIP	9.60%	÷0.966	×0.830	×0.991	×1.015	8.30%
Triples /BIP	0.40%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.991	×1.015	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	4.40%	÷1.153	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.10%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 97, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .357 → .278; ISO .176 → .130; BABIP .346 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .