Zack Granite
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 25 | AAAWSH | 263 | .211/.284/.245 | 0 | 9 | 29 | — | .193/.245/.221 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAAMIL | 541 | .290/.333/.375 | 3 | 25 | 58 | — | .238/.272/.300 |
| 2021 | 28 | AACWS | 232 | .226/.341/.369 | 5 | 7 | 47 | — | .178/.253/.284 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 20 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | — | 278 | 242 | 69 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 29 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 285 | 366 | 343 | 709 | 58 | 314 | 9 | 10 | 321 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 85 | 79 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 291 | 325 | 367 | 692 | 76 | 319 | 9 | 5 | 303 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK | GCL Twins | — | 16 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 214 | 312 | 214 | 527 | 300 | 25 | 12 | 257 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 441 | 381 | 95 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 41 | 63 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 249 | 330 | 304 | 635 | 55 | 294 | 14 | 9 | 286 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 83 | 67 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 358 | 463 | 463 | 925 | 104 | 393 | 7 | 14 | 403 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 584 | 526 | 155 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 43 | 3 | 56 | 14 | 295 | 350 | 382 | 732 | 87 | 312 | 7 | 7 | 324 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | — | 107 | 93 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 237 | 324 | 290 | 614 | 54 | 250 | 8 | 11 | 282 | 77 | -3 | -0 | +3 | +2 | +2 | 0.4 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 313 | 284 | 96 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 34 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 338 | 392 | 475 | 867 | 137 | 371 | 11 | 8 | 381 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 21 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 368 | 429 | 526 | 955 | 158 | 412 | 10 | 10 | 420 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 263 | 237 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 28 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 211 | 284 | 245 | 528 | 34 | 238 | 11 | 8 | 248 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 541 | 504 | 146 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 31 | 45 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 290 | 333 | 375 | 708 | 85 | 311 | 8 | 6 | 317 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 232 | 195 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 49 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 226 | 341 | 369 | 710 | 144 | 273 | 21 | 14 | 320 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 107 | 93 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 237 | 324 | 290 | 614 | 54 | 250 | 8 | 11 | 282 | 77 | -3 | -0 | +3 | +2 | +2 | 0.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 20 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 278 | 253 | 60 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 36 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 237 | 293 | 281 | 574 | 43 | 263 | 13 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 85 | 80 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 275 | 301 | 350 | 651 | 75 | 296 | 13 | 4 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Twins | — | 16 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 133 | 321 | 240 | 38 | 6 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 441 | 393 | 88 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 91 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 224 | 286 | 277 | 563 | 53 | 273 | 21 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 83 | 71 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 338 | 412 | 437 | 849 | 99 | 362 | 11 | 10 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 584 | 540 | 153 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 28 | 55 | 3 | 56 | 14 | 283 | 322 | 363 | 685 | 80 | 299 | 9 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB MLE | Minnesota Twins | — | 107 | 93 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 237 | 324 | 290 | 614 | 54 | 250 | 8 | 11 | 282 | 77 | -3 | -0 | +3 | +2 | +2 | 0.4 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 313 | 293 | 93 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 41 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 317 | 353 | 440 | 793 | 123 | 350 | 13 | 5 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 21 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 350 | 381 | 500 | 881 | 150 | 357 | 14 | 5 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 263 | 244 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 34 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 193 | 245 | 221 | 467 | 29 | 219 | 13 | 6 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 541 | 513 | 122 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 57 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 238 | 272 | 300 | 572 | 62 | 260 | 11 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 232 | 208 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 60 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 178 | 253 | 284 | 537 | 106 | 222 | 26 | 8 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 278 | 253 | 60 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 36 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 237 | 293 | 281 | 574 | 43 | 273 | 13 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK RAW | Elizabethton Twins | — | 278 | 242 | 69 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 29 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 285 | 366 | 343 | 709 | 58 | 314 | 9 | 10 | 321 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 101 | 95 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 253 | 283 | 316 | 599 | 63 | 304 | 17 | 4 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 101 | 93 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 280 | 323 | 344 | 667 | 65 | 317 | 12 | 6 | 296 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 524 | 464 | 112 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 37 | 99 | 6 | 28 | 13 | 241 | 306 | 302 | 607 | 60 | 302 | 19 | 7 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 524 | 448 | 119 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 53 | 69 | 6 | 28 | 13 | 266 | 351 | 328 | 679 | 62 | 310 | 13 | 10 | 304 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 584 | 540 | 153 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 28 | 55 | 3 | 56 | 14 | 283 | 322 | 363 | 685 | 80 | 308 | 9 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 584 | 526 | 155 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 43 | 3 | 56 | 14 | 295 | 350 | 382 | 732 | 87 | 312 | 7 | 7 | 324 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 441 | 405 | 121 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 53 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 299 | 347 | 407 | 755 | 109 | 331 | 12 | 7 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 441 | 396 | 125 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 38 | 45 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 316 | 377 | 434 | 811 | 119 | 344 | 10 | 9 | 359 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 263 | 244 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 34 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 193 | 245 | 221 | 467 | 29 | 223 | 13 | 6 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA RAW | Rochester Red Wings | — | 263 | 237 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 28 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 211 | 284 | 245 | 528 | 34 | 238 | 11 | 8 | 248 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 541 | 513 | 122 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 57 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 238 | 272 | 300 | 572 | 62 | 262 | 11 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 541 | 504 | 146 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 31 | 45 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 290 | 333 | 375 | 708 | 85 | 311 | 8 | 6 | 317 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 232 | 208 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 60 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 178 | 253 | 284 | 537 | 106 | 226 | 26 | 8 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 232 | 195 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 49 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 226 | 341 | 369 | 710 | 144 | 273 | 21 | 14 | 320 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 278 | 256 | 60 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 36 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 234 | 293 | 277 | 570 | 43 | 263 | 13 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 101 | 96 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 250 | 283 | 312 | 595 | 62 | 287 | 17 | 4 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 524 | 476 | 112 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 37 | 99 | 6 | 28 | 13 | 235 | 306 | 294 | 600 | 59 | 287 | 19 | 7 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 584 | 548 | 153 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 28 | 55 | 3 | 56 | 14 | 279 | 322 | 358 | 680 | 78 | 299 | 9 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 441 | 408 | 121 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 53 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 297 | 347 | 404 | 752 | 108 | 326 | 12 | 7 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 263 | 244 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 34 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 193 | 245 | 221 | 467 | 29 | 219 | 13 | 6 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 541 | 512 | 122 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 57 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 238 | 272 | 301 | 573 | 62 | 260 | 11 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 232 | 209 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 60 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 177 | 253 | 282 | 536 | 105 | 222 | 26 | 8 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 107 | 93 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 237 | 324 | 290 | 614 | 54 | 250 | 8 | 11 | 282 | 68 | -3 | -0 | +3 | +2 | +2 | 0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 565 | 133 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 73 | 55 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 235 | 323 | 288 | 611 | 53 | 249 | 8 | 11 | 282 | 68 | -18 | -2 | +18 | +10 | +14 | 2.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2964 | 2722 | 676 | 79 | 33 | 16 | 172 | 411 | 18 | 163 | 67 | 248 | 297 | 319 | 617 | 71 | 285 | 14 | 6 | 268 | 68 | -3 | -0 | +3 | +2 | +2 | 0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 148 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 38 | 90 | 4 | 36 | 15 | 248 | 297 | 320 | 617 | 72 | 284 | 14 | 6 | 268 | 68 | -18 | -2 | +18 | +10 | +14 | 2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AABirmingham Barons · 232 PAwOBA .315 → .237 (−78)K% 21.1% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.79% | ÷1.119 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.958 | 8.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.86% | ÷1.075 | ×0.940 | ×0.975 | ×0.958 | 16.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.79% | ÷0.928 | ×0.870 | ×0.975 | ×0.958 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.05% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | ×0.958 | 1.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.42% | ÷1.087 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 2.35% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 115, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 100, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .315 → .237; ISO .144 → .111; BABIP .273 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAANashville Sounds · 541 PAwOBA .311 → .254 (−57)K% 8.3% → 10.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.32% | ÷1.015 | ×1.290 | — | — | 10.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.73% | ÷0.988 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 4.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.49% | ÷1.007 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 21.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.92% | ÷0.967 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 3.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.74% | ÷1.069 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.65% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.51% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 101, 2B 93, 3B 114, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .311 → .254; ISO .085 → .065; BABIP .311 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAARochester Red Wings · 263 PAwOBA .241 → .211 (−30)K% 10.6% → 13.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.65% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.98% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.10% | ÷1.023 | ×0.930 | ×1.011 | ×1.018 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.83% | ÷1.009 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×1.018 | 3.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.879 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 105, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .241 → .211; ISO .034 → .029; BABIP .238 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAARochester Red Wings · 313 PAwOBA .370 → .338 (−31)K% 10.9% → 13.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.86% | ÷0.997 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.35% | ÷1.080 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.32% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.40% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×1.033 | ×1.033 | 27.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.40% | ÷1.085 | ×0.830 | ×1.033 | ×1.033 | 5.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.60% | ÷1.085 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | ×1.033 | 1.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 1.82% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 117, 3B 117, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .370 → .338; ISO .137 → .124; BABIP .371 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 21 PAwOBA .409 → .327 (−82)K% 9.5% → 14.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.52% | ÷0.947 | ×1.420 | — | — | 14.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.209 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.978 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 26.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.178 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.978 | 4.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 4.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.942 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 96, 2B 136, 3B 130, K 89, BB 142 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .409 → .327; ISO .158 → .113; BABIP .412 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 584 PAwOBA .318 → .293 (−25)K% 7.4% → 9.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.36% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 9.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.19% | ÷1.039 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 4.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.51% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.88% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×1.045 | ×1.012 | 25.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.73% | ÷1.108 | ×0.910 | ×1.045 | ×1.012 | 3.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.66% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.045 | ×1.012 | 1.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.301 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.52% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 101, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 92, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .318 → .293; ISO .087 → .078; BABIP .312 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 441 PAwOBA .281 → .245 (−35)K% 14.3% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.984 | ×1.420 | — | — | 20.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.30% | ÷1.072 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 6.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.16% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 23.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.14% | ÷0.962 | ×0.960 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 3.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.26% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.31% | ÷1.106 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.25% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 108, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 97, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .281 → .245; ISO .055 → .053; BABIP .294 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 83 PAwOBA .393 → .353 (−40)K% 7.2% → 10.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.23% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 10.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.46% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 9.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.51% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 27.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷1.010 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 7.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 1.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.134 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 92, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .393 → .353; ISO .104 → .095; BABIP .393 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).