Jordan Cowan
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | AASEA | 504 | .264/.348/.307 | 2 | 17 | 62 | — | .237/.300/.276 |
| 2021 | 26 | AASEA | 348 | .258/.367/.366 | 4 | 18 | 71 | — | .229/.301/.322 |
| 2022 | 27 | AA/A+/ROK3 orgs | 168 | .226/.327/.281 | 0 | 3 | 37 | — | .189/.262/.235 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | Pulaski Mariners | — | 176 | 157 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 255 | 328 | 325 | 652 | 70 | 305 | 15 | 9 | 296 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 26 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 292 | 190 | 482 | 267 | 23 | 12 | 220 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 27 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 375 | 400 | 458 | 858 | 83 | 429 | 11 | 4 | 356 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | INTL | Adelaide Bite | — | 116 | 106 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 292 | 336 | 396 | 733 | 104 | 326 | 13 | 3 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 187 | 170 | 52 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 306 | 359 | 406 | 765 | 100 | 360 | 17 | 7 | 339 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | INTL | Adelaide Bite | — | 173 | 148 | 43 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 291 | 382 | 432 | 815 | 142 | 318 | 10 | 12 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 533 | 468 | 127 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 50 | 88 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 271 | 347 | 335 | 682 | 64 | 328 | 17 | 9 | 308 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 86 | 74 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 284 | 354 | 338 | 691 | 54 | 350 | 19 | 8 | 304 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | AZL Mariners | — | 28 | 26 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 423 | 464 | 423 | 887 | 524 | 18 | 7 | 405 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 504 | 440 | 116 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 53 | 85 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 264 | 348 | 307 | 655 | 43 | 319 | 17 | 11 | 302 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 348 | 295 | 76 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 47 | 69 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 258 | 367 | 366 | 733 | 108 | 324 | 20 | 14 | 335 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 130 | 114 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 315 | 263 | 579 | 44 | 287 | 21 | 11 | 275 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | A+ | Rome Braves | — | 16 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 77 | 250 | 77 | 327 | 91 | 12 | 12 | 190 | -26 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 27 | ROK | FCL Braves | — | 22 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 368 | 455 | 526 | 981 | 158 | 438 | 14 | 9 | 434 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 176 | 163 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 209 | 259 | 264 | 522 | 55 | 268 | 22 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 26 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 182 | 432 | 265 | 31 | 8 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 27 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 375 | 400 | 458 | 858 | 83 | 405 | 15 | 4 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 187 | 174 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 276 | 315 | 368 | 683 | 92 | 333 | 22 | 5 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 533 | 483 | 113 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 122 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 234 | 291 | 282 | 573 | 48 | 299 | 23 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 86 | 77 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 260 | 305 | 312 | 617 | 52 | 330 | 26 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 28 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 296 | 321 | 296 | 618 | 414 | 25 | 4 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 504 | 456 | 108 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 100 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 237 | 300 | 276 | 576 | 39 | 291 | 20 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 348 | 314 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 83 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 229 | 301 | 322 | 622 | 92 | 295 | 24 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 130 | 119 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 185 | 254 | 218 | 472 | 34 | 256 | 25 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | A+ MLE | Rome Braves | — | 16 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 188 | 71 | 259 | 79 | 19 | 6 | 130 | -26 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 27 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 22 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 364 | 450 | 814 | 150 | 325 | 18 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 176 | 163 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 209 | 259 | 264 | 522 | 55 | 270 | 22 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | Pulaski Mariners | — | 176 | 157 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 255 | 328 | 325 | 652 | 70 | 305 | 15 | 9 | 296 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 169 | 149 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 282 | 340 | 322 | 662 | 40 | 375 | 22 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | INTL RAW | 3 teams | — | 169 | 151 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 291 | 340 | 377 | 717 | 86 | 336 | 14 | 5 | 311 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 360 | 334 | 91 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 82 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 272 | 314 | 356 | 670 | 84 | 345 | 23 | 5 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 360 | 318 | 95 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 50 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 299 | 370 | 418 | 788 | 119 | 340 | 14 | 10 | 349 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 533 | 483 | 113 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 122 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 234 | 291 | 282 | 573 | 48 | 307 | 23 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 533 | 468 | 127 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 50 | 88 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 271 | 347 | 335 | 682 | 64 | 328 | 17 | 9 | 308 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 114 | 104 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 279 | 318 | 317 | 635 | 38 | 377 | 25 | 4 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 114 | 100 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 320 | 382 | 360 | 742 | 40 | 395 | 18 | 8 | 329 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 504 | 456 | 108 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 100 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 237 | 300 | 276 | 576 | 39 | 296 | 20 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 504 | 440 | 116 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 53 | 85 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 264 | 348 | 307 | 655 | 43 | 319 | 17 | 11 | 302 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 348 | 314 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 83 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 229 | 301 | 322 | 622 | 92 | 300 | 24 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 348 | 295 | 76 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 47 | 69 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 258 | 367 | 366 | 733 | 108 | 324 | 20 | 14 | 335 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 168 | 152 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 191 | 268 | 237 | 505 | 46 | 259 | 24 | 7 | 222 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 168 | 146 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 327 | 281 | 608 | 55 | 289 | 19 | 11 | 288 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 176 | 163 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 209 | 259 | 264 | 522 | 55 | 268 | 22 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 169 | 154 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 273 | 340 | 312 | 651 | 39 | 336 | 22 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 360 | 337 | 91 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 82 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 270 | 314 | 353 | 667 | 83 | 333 | 23 | 5 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 533 | 489 | 113 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 122 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 231 | 291 | 278 | 569 | 47 | 299 | 23 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 114 | 107 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 271 | 318 | 308 | 627 | 37 | 351 | 25 | 4 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 504 | 458 | 108 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 100 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 236 | 300 | 275 | 575 | 39 | 291 | 20 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 348 | 313 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 83 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 230 | 301 | 323 | 623 | 93 | 295 | 24 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 168 | 150 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 268 | 240 | 508 | 47 | 248 | 24 | 7 | 222 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2372 | 2155 | 518 | 69 | 8 | 13 | 156 | 531 | 22 | 81 | 31 | 240 | 298 | 298 | 596 | 58 | 311 | 22 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -102 | +4 | +0 | +8 | +51 | -3.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 142 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 146 | 6 | 22 | 8 | 240 | 298 | 299 | 598 | 59 | 311 | 22 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -28 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAMississippi Braves · 130 PAwOBA .269 → .221 (−48)K% 20.8% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.77% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.77% | ÷0.985 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 7.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.99% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | ×0.978 | 20.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.75% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | ×1.016 | ×0.978 | 5.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.016 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.927 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 104, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .269 → .221; ISO .044 → .038; BABIP .287 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Braves · 22 PAwOBA .423 → .298 (−125)K% 13.6% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.050 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.007 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 5.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 3.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷0.980 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 24.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.120 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 3.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.013 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 4.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.066 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 96, 2B 124, 3B 103, K 110, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .423 → .298; ISO .158 → .102; BABIP .438 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Rome Braves · 16 PAwOBA .186 → .130 (−56)K% 12.5% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.970 | ×1.310 | — | — | 16.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.052 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.958 | 6.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.25% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.958 | 4.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.956 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 7.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.928 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 91, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .186 → .130; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .091 → .079. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAArkansas Travelers · 348 PAwOBA .327 → .273 (−54)K% 19.8% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.83% | ÷1.013 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.51% | ÷1.144 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 8.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.34% | ÷0.999 | ×0.940 | ×0.999 | ×0.988 | 22.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.19% | ÷0.975 | ×0.870 | ×0.999 | ×0.988 | 5.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.988 | 1.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.77% | ÷0.892 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.53% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 103, BB 129 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .327 → .273; ISO .108 → .096; BABIP .324 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAArkansas Travelers · 504 PAwOBA .297 → .260 (−37)K% 16.9% → 19.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.87% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.52% | ÷1.010 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.45% | ÷0.966 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 26.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.66% | ÷0.916 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 3.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.922 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.56% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.58% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 84, K 106, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .297 → .260; ISO .043 → .041; BABIP .319 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Modesto Nuts · 86 PAwOBA .303 → .271 (−33)K% 18.6% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.60% | ÷0.990 | ×1.340 | — | — | 25.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.14% | ÷1.106 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.31% | ÷1.003 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 27.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.951 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 6.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .303 → .271; ISO .054 → .050; BABIP .350 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKAZL Mariners · 28 PAwOBA .384 → .288 (−96)K% 17.9% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.86% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 2.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 52.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 41.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .384 → .288; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .524 → .414. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Modesto Nuts · 533 PAwOBA .301 → .257 (−44)K% 16.5% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.51% | ÷0.972 | ×1.340 | — | — | 22.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.01% | ÷0.995 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 6.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.11% | ÷1.008 | ×0.910 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 25.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.082 | ×0.820 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 4.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷1.041 | ×0.760 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.53% | ÷0.866 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 0.57% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 108, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .301 → .257; ISO .064 → .053; BABIP .328 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).