Isaac Ballou
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | AAA/AA/A+/INTL4 orgs | 563 | .262/.345/.381 | 8 | 21 | 72 | — | .235/.287/.339 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 459 | .258/.340/.388 | 6 | 7 | 66 | — | .225/.287/.321 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAWSH | 142 | .194/.286/.306 | 2 | 2 | 35 | — | .172/.243/.273 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 29 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 172 | 111 | 284 | 143 | 21 | 7 | 142 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 143 | 127 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 260 | 324 | 449 | 773 | 189 | 309 | 22 | 8 | 331 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 441 | 377 | 102 | 20 | 9 | 6 | 47 | 65 | 14 | 23 | 8 | 271 | 372 | 419 | 791 | 149 | 312 | 15 | 11 | 355 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 21 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 300 | 333 | 400 | 733 | 100 | 333 | 10 | 5 | 328 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 184 | 158 | 48 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 304 | 389 | 494 | 883 | 190 | 347 | 17 | 10 | 382 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 282 | 253 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 48 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 249 | 321 | 336 | 657 | 87 | 294 | 17 | 10 | 299 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 76 | 62 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 333 | 274 | 608 | 81 | 222 | 11 | 13 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 31 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 296 | 387 | 407 | 795 | 111 | 421 | 26 | 13 | 360 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 428 | 373 | 95 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 42 | 77 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 255 | 337 | 386 | 723 | 131 | 301 | 18 | 10 | 319 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 142 | 124 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 44 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 194 | 286 | 306 | 592 | 113 | 278 | 31 | 11 | 269 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 29 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 103 | 71 | 175 | 123 | 28 | 3 | 104 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 143 | 131 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 198 | 245 | 328 | 573 | 130 | 260 | 31 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 441 | 394 | 89 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 90 | 14 | 23 | 8 | 226 | 304 | 340 | 644 | 114 | 277 | 20 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 21 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 300 | 333 | 400 | 733 | 100 | 299 | 10 | 5 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 184 | 164 | 46 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 38 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 280 | 344 | 433 | 777 | 152 | 329 | 21 | 7 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 282 | 264 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 201 | 246 | 273 | 519 | 72 | 252 | 24 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 31 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 323 | 357 | 680 | 107 | 377 | 32 | 10 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 428 | 386 | 86 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 29 | 96 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 223 | 284 | 319 | 603 | 96 | 275 | 22 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 142 | 128 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 172 | 243 | 273 | 516 | 102 | 257 | 37 | 8 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 29 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 103 | 71 | 175 | 100 | 28 | 3 | 104 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 23 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 29 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 172 | 111 | 284 | 143 | 21 | 7 | 142 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 584 | 524 | 116 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 134 | 15 | 26 | 10 | 221 | 293 | 342 | 634 | 120 | 280 | 23 | 7 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 584 | 504 | 135 | 26 | 12 | 10 | 58 | 96 | 15 | 26 | 10 | 268 | 360 | 427 | 787 | 159 | 311 | 16 | 10 | 349 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 563 | 516 | 121 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 125 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 234 | 290 | 339 | 629 | 105 | 291 | 22 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 563 | 493 | 129 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 90 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 262 | 345 | 381 | 727 | 120 | 302 | 16 | 10 | 326 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 459 | 414 | 94 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 106 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 227 | 289 | 324 | 613 | 97 | 293 | 23 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 459 | 400 | 103 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 46 | 85 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 258 | 340 | 388 | 728 | 130 | 308 | 19 | 10 | 322 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 142 | 128 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 172 | 243 | 273 | 516 | 102 | 270 | 37 | 8 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 142 | 124 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 44 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 194 | 286 | 306 | 592 | 113 | 278 | 31 | 11 | 269 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 29 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 103 | 71 | 175 | 123 | 28 | 3 | 104 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 584 | 526 | 116 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 134 | 15 | 26 | 10 | 221 | 293 | 340 | 633 | 120 | 273 | 23 | 7 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 563 | 518 | 121 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 125 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 234 | 290 | 338 | 627 | 104 | 283 | 22 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 459 | 420 | 94 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 106 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 224 | 289 | 319 | 608 | 95 | 282 | 23 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 142 | 129 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 171 | 243 | 271 | 514 | 101 | 257 | 37 | 8 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1777 | 1610 | 355 | 59 | 24 | 21 | 116 | 426 | 26 | 57 | 18 | 220 | 284 | 326 | 610 | 106 | 283 | 24 | 7 | 265 | 66 | -73 | +4 | +0 | -19 | +39 | -5.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 131 | 22 | 9 | 8 | 42 | 156 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 222 | 285 | 331 | 617 | 109 | 285 | 24 | 6 | 265 | 66 | -27 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAHarrisburg Senators · 142 PAwOBA .264 → .220 (−44)K% 31.0% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.99% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.56% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×0.978 | 18.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.860 | ×1.002 | ×0.978 | 4.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.906 | ×0.950 | ×1.002 | ×0.978 | 2.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.97% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 81, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .264 → .220; ISO .113 → .096; BABIP .278 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAHarrisburg Senators · 428 PAwOBA .316 → .265 (−50)K% 18.0% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.99% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.81% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.64% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 21.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.39% | ÷0.922 | ×0.860 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 4.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.04% | ÷1.137 | ×0.950 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 2.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.03% | ÷1.445 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.08% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 189, 1B 106, 2B 84, 3B 127, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .316 → .265; ISO .131 → .099; BABIP .301 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 31 PAwOBA .351 → .283 (−69)K% 25.8% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.81% | ÷0.949 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.90% | ÷1.110 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷1.048 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 23.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 13.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.978 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 90, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .351 → .283; ISO .111 → .095; BABIP .421 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Potomac Nationals · 282 PAwOBA .293 → .229 (−64)K% 17.0% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.02% | ÷1.006 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.57% | ÷1.022 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 5.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.41% | ÷1.030 | ×0.940 | ×0.980 | ×0.978 | 20.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.37% | ÷1.016 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×0.978 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷0.937 | ×0.800 | ×0.980 | ×0.978 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.46% | ÷0.900 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 1.43% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 103, 3B 87, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .293 → .229; ISO .087 → .073; BABIP .294 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAHarrisburg Senators · 184 PAwOBA .378 → .338 (−41)K% 17.4% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.39% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.33% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.63% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.60% | ÷0.962 | ×0.970 | ×0.991 | ×0.998 | 24.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.070 | ×0.860 | ×0.991 | ×0.998 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.916 | ×0.950 | ×0.991 | ×0.998 | 2.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.97% | ÷0.986 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.13% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 92, 2B 114, 3B 83, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .378 → .338; ISO .190 → .165; BABIP .347 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 21 PAwOBA .319 → .277 (−42)K% 9.5% → 11.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.043 | ×1.200 | — | — | 10.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷0.938 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 3.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 21.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 8.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.183 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 102, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 109, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .319 → .277; ISO .100 → .079; BABIP .333 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AHagerstown Suns · 441 PAwOBA .347 → .284 (−64)K% 14.7% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.74% | ÷0.975 | ×1.340 | — | — | 20.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 6.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.17% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 2.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.47% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×0.980 | 19.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.41% | ÷0.997 | ×0.820 | ×1.025 | ×0.980 | 5.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.025 | ×0.980 | 2.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.962 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 1.61% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 101, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .347 → .284; ISO .149 → .122; BABIP .312 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Potomac Nationals · 143 PAwOBA .327 → .254 (−73)K% 21.7% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.68% | ÷0.996 | ×1.420 | — | — | 30.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷0.943 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 5.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.012 | ×0.940 | ×0.976 | ×0.988 | 18.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.037 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×0.988 | 4.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.976 | ×0.988 | 2.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.988 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 3.75% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .327 → .254; ISO .189 → .145; BABIP .309 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .