Julian Fernández
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 30
RHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP7.90
SIERA7.39
K%24.0%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%15.4%
IP46
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF5555
CTRL5555
CMD6060
K†6060
FB (59%)
CH (41%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 28 | 0 | 38 | 152 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 15.7% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 3.55 | 3.34 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Asheville Tourists | 51 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 57 | 18 | 2 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 0.9% | 3.26 | 3.24 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 50 | 0 | 49 | 210 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 3.65 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 58 | 0 | 57 | 261 | 65 | 32 | 15 | 21.9% | 12.9% | 6.1% | 6.63 | 6.21 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 7 | 0 | 9 | 51 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 10.61 | 7.34 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 51 | 4 | 59 | 255 | 72 | 20 | 10 | 25.1% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 4.27 | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 8 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | WSH | 18 | — | 18 | 78 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 24.6% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 25 | 108 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 3.07 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 46 | 15 | 6 | 24.2% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 43 | 15 | 6 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 41 | 14 | 6 | 23.5% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 4.40 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 38 | 14 | 6 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.49 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 35 | 14 | 6 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.61 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 32 | 13 | 5 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 4.73 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 253 | 4 | 277 | 1204 | 240 | 123 | 38 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.45 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 3 | 200 | 868 | 173 | 89 | 27 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.45 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Julian Fernández (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 24.6% | 7.5% | 3.3% | — | 4.36 | 23.9% | 15.8% | 128 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 86 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 82 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.05 | 26.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | .288 | 4.70 | 17.7% | 9.1% | 118 | +0.65 | 2.99 | 227 | 79 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 79 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.5% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 281 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 77 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.17 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% | .279 | 3.79 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 181 | +0.62 | 3.17 | 272 | 77 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 75 |
| Matt Albers R 2028 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.34 | 3.13 | 244 | 75 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.50 | 24.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 177 | 75 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 75 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 75 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 74 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 74 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 74 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.02 | 21.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | .340 | 4.63 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.61 | 3.86 | 231 | 74 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.08 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .248 | 2.59 | 20.5% | 14.7% | 19 | -0.49 | 2.59 | 130 | 74 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.23 | 26.0% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 178 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.