Julian Fernández
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 30
RHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 64 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.17
FIP4.17
K%24.5%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%17.4%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB (59%)
CH (41%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 28 | 0 | 38 | 152 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.7% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 3.55 | 3.34 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 28 | 0 | 38 | 152 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 3.55 | 2.44 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Asheville Tourists | 51 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 57 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 0.7% | 3.26 | 3.14 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Asheville Tourists | 51 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 57 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 7.3% | 15.9% | 0.8% | 3.26 | 2.51 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 0 | 49 | 210 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 3.65 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 0 | 49 | 210 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 3.65 | 3.97 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 58 | 0 | 57 | 261 | 65 | 32 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 12.9% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 6.63 | 5.97 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 58 | 0 | 57 | 261 | 65 | 32 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 5.7% | 6.63 | 5.92 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 7 | 0 | 9 | 51 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 8.6% | 8.2% | 0.4% | 7.8% | 10.61 | 7.68 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 7 | 0 | 9 | 51 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 5.9% | 10.61 | 7.49 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 4 | 59 | 255 | 72 | 20 | 10 | 8% | 1.2 | 25.1% | 8.0% | 17.0% | 4.1% | 4.27 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 4 | 59 | 255 | 72 | 20 | 10 | 8% | 1.2 | 28.2% | 7.8% | 20.4% | 3.9% | 4.27 | 3.88 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 16 | 0 | 15 | 61 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | WSH | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 66 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 7.1% | 17.4% | 3.4% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | WSH | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 66 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 7.1% | 17.4% | 3.4% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 79 | 331 | 79 | 26 | 11 | — | — | 23.9% | 7.9% | 16.0% | 3.4% | 3.95 | 3.38 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 68 | 287 | 79 | 26 | 11 | — | — | 27.6% | 9.1% | 18.5% | 3.9% | 4.59 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 60 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 64 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 16.3% | 3.6% | 4.31 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 58 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 15.3% | 3.8% | 4.49 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 61 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 16.3% | 3.6% | 4.31 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 56 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 15.3% | 3.8% | 4.49 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 184 | 0 | 195 | 830 | 194 | 66 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 7.9% | 15.5% | 3.9% | 4.52 | 4.25 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 849 | 199 | 68 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 7.9% | 15.5% | 3.9% | 4.52 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 261 | 4 | 286 | 1235 | 246 | 125 | 39 | 2% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.41 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 3 | 200 | 865 | 173 | 87 | 27 | 2% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Julian Fernández (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.17 | 24.5% | 7.1% | 3.4% | — | 4.50 | 23.8% | 15.9% | 122 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 88 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 84 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.05 | 26.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | .288 | 4.80 | 17.7% | 9.1% | 118 | +0.75 | 2.90 | 227 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 80 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 80 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 80 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 79 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.04 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 281 | 79 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 77 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 77 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.15 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% | .279 | 3.69 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 181 | +0.54 | 3.15 | 272 | 77 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 77 |
| Matt Albers R 2028 · 3.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.18 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.51 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.33 | 3.15 | 244 | 76 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 75 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 75 |
| Carlos Torres R 2028 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.74 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 326 | 75 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.61 | 24.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 177 | 75 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.90 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .282 | 3.17 | 28.4% | 19.9% | 104 | -0.73 | 2.33 | 445 | 73 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 73 |
| Tony Barnette R 2028 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 1.38 | 4.32 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |