Julian Fernández

Julian Fernández P Rochester Red Wings

Age 30 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.12

FIP4.12

K%23.3%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%17.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

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FB (59%)

CH (41%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	28	0	38	152	35	15	0	0%	1.4	15.7%	12.3%	3.3%	0.0%	3.55	3.34	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	28	0	38	152	35	15	0	0%	1.4	23.0%	9.9%	13.2%	0.0%	3.55	2.44	—
2017	21	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	51	0	58	245	57	18	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	8.7%	8.5%	0.9%	3.26	3.21	—
2017	21	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	51	0	58	245	57	18	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.3%	15.9%	0.8%	3.26	2.51	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	0	49	210	46	19	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	2.7%	3.65	4.09	+0.3
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	0	49	210	46	19	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	2.9%	3.65	3.97	+0.3
2022	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	58	0	57	261	65	32	15	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.9%	9.0%	6.0%	6.63	6.15	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	58	0	57	261	65	32	15	0%	1.0	24.9%	12.3%	12.6%	5.7%	6.63	5.92	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	7	0	9	51	5	4	3	0%	1.3	8.1%	7.1%	1.1%	7.1%	10.61	7.18	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	7	0	9	51	5	4	3	0%	1.3	8.1%	7.1%	1.1%	7.1%	10.61	7.18	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	7	0	9	51	5	4	3	0%	1.3	9.8%	7.8%	2.0%	5.9%	10.61	7.49	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	4	59	255	72	20	10	8%	1.2	23.7%	6.9%	16.8%	3.9%	4.27	4.12	+0.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	4	59	255	72	20	10	8%	1.2	23.7%	6.9%	16.8%	3.9%	4.27	4.12	+0.3
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	4	59	255	72	20	10	8%	1.2	28.2%	7.8%	20.4%	3.9%	4.27	3.88	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			13	0	16	71	12	8	5	0%	1.2	16.9%	11.3%	5.6%	7.0%	6.89	7.25	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	16	0	15	61	13	7	2	0%	0.9	—	—	—	—	3.00	—	—
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	16	0	15	61	13	7	2	0%	0.9	—	—	—	—	3.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	WSH	13	0	11	43	10	5	1	0%	0.8	23.3%	11.6%	11.6%	2.3%	3.27	3.89	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	WSH	3	0	4	18	3	2	1	0%	1.3	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	5.6%	2.25	6.15	—
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	WSH	3	0	4	18	3	2	1	0%	1.3	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	5.6%	2.25	6.15	—
ROS	30	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	22	5	1	1	0%	1.1	23.3%	6.1%	17.2%	3.3%	4.12	4.12	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	5	1	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	6.1%	17.2%	3.3%	4.12	4.12	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	20	83	18	8	3	—	—	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	3.3%	3.29	1.07	+1.0
FULL	30	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	9	39	18	8	3	—	—	46.4%	21.3%	25.1%	7.0%	7.19	5.73	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	WSH	60	0	63	267	61	18	9	0%	1.1	22.9%	6.8%	16.1%	3.5%	4.26	4.34	+0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	WSH	56	0	59	247	56	18	9	0%	1.0	22.5%	7.3%	15.1%	3.7%	4.44	4.56	-0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	WSH	57	0	60	253	58	17	9	0%	1.1	22.9%	6.8%	16.1%	3.5%	4.26	4.34	+0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	WSH	53	0	56	236	53	17	9	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.3%	15.1%	3.7%	4.44	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	0	137	582	128	44	23	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.5%	14.5%	4.0%	4.63	4.41	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	852	187	64	34	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.5%	14.5%	4.0%	4.63	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		261	4	286	1235	243	121	39	2%	1.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.41	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		183	3	200	865	170	85	27	2%	1.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.41	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julian Fernández (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.12	23.3%	6.1%	3.3%	—	4.45	22.7%	15.6%	122	+0.33	—	—	—
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	86
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	80
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	79
Matt Albers R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	18.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.252	4.45	20.4%	13.3%	147	+1.26	3.15	244	79
Junichi Tazawa R 2016 · 4.14 FIP	30	SU	4.14	26.0%	6.2%	4.4%	.288	4.74	17.7%	9.1%	118	+0.60	2.94	227	79
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	78
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	3.19	191	78
Cory Gearrin R 2016 · 3.15 FIP	30	SU	3.15	22.8%	6.1%	2.2%	.279	3.72	21.2%	11.5%	181	+0.57	3.15	272	78
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	78
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	77
Carlos Torres R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	19.8%	4.9%	2.1%	.315	3.67	20.8%	12.4%	206	+0.48	2.89	326	77
Rubby De La Rosa R 2019 · 4.21 FIP	30	SU	4.21	27.7%	8.0%	4.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	281	75
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	75
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	75
Craig Stammen R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	32	SU	4.04	17.0%	3.7%	3.5%	.333	3.27	23.9%	18.6%	241	-0.77	1.82	407	75
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	74
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	74
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	74
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	74
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	22.9%	6.7%	1.36	4.27
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Erik Swanson ('24)	1.3	51	26.2%	6.5%	1.57	3.70
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19