Ariel Montesino
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | A/ROK2 orgs | 304 | .216/.301/.318 | 3 | 5 | 28 | — | .168/.230/.244 |
| 2018 | 22 | A/ROK2 orgs | 143 | .221/.277/.321 | 1 | 6 | 18 | — | .173/.220/.255 |
| 2019 | 23 | ARome Braves | 157 | .184/.260/.279 | 1 | 6 | 5 | — | .136/.193/.207 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 17 | ROK | DSL Twins | — | 90 | 74 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 270 | 393 | 419 | 812 | 149 | 352 | 21 | 13 | 364 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK | GCL Twins | — | 121 | 109 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 165 | 235 | 220 | 455 | 55 | 209 | 20 | 8 | 211 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | GCL Twins | — | 140 | 119 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 227 | 324 | 294 | 618 | 67 | 248 | 11 | 11 | 281 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | — | 202 | 187 | 56 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 299 | 345 | 332 | 677 | 32 | 364 | 17 | 6 | 307 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 173 | 151 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 185 | 263 | 258 | 522 | 73 | 246 | 23 | 9 | 235 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | — | 131 | 113 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 257 | 349 | 398 | 747 | 142 | 277 | 14 | 12 | 332 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 108 | 98 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 184 | 245 | 286 | 531 | 102 | 233 | 22 | 6 | 238 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | — | 35 | 33 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 333 | 371 | 424 | 796 | 91 | 393 | 14 | 3 | 358 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Rome Braves | — | 157 | 136 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 184 | 260 | 279 | 539 | 96 | 255 | 29 | 7 | 238 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 90 | 78 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 167 | 270 | 231 | 500 | 64 | 229 | 26 | 9 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Twins | — | 121 | 113 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 124 | 168 | 168 | 336 | 44 | 172 | 29 | 5 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Twins | — | 140 | 125 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 184 | 250 | 240 | 490 | 56 | 201 | 16 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 202 | 192 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 234 | 265 | 260 | 525 | 26 | 305 | 24 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 173 | 155 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 56 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 148 | 210 | 206 | 416 | 58 | 212 | 32 | 7 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 131 | 119 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 193 | 256 | 294 | 550 | 101 | 215 | 20 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 108 | 100 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 150 | 198 | 240 | 438 | 90 | 199 | 31 | 5 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 35 | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 242 | 286 | 303 | 589 | 61 | 308 | 20 | 3 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 157 | 140 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 60 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 136 | 193 | 207 | 400 | 71 | 204 | 38 | 4 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 90 | 78 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 167 | 270 | 231 | 500 | 64 | 236 | 26 | 9 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Twins | — | 90 | 74 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 270 | 393 | 419 | 812 | 149 | 352 | 21 | 13 | 364 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Twins | — | 121 | 113 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 124 | 168 | 168 | 336 | 44 | 177 | 29 | 5 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Twins | — | 121 | 109 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 165 | 235 | 220 | 455 | 55 | 209 | 20 | 8 | 211 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Twins | — | 140 | 125 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 184 | 250 | 240 | 490 | 56 | 212 | 16 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Twins | — | 140 | 119 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 227 | 324 | 294 | 618 | 67 | 248 | 11 | 11 | 281 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 202 | 192 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 234 | 265 | 260 | 525 | 26 | 310 | 24 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK RAW | Elizabethton Twins | — | 202 | 187 | 56 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 299 | 345 | 332 | 677 | 32 | 364 | 17 | 6 | 307 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 304 | 274 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 81 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 164 | 226 | 234 | 460 | 69 | 219 | 27 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 304 | 264 | 57 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 58 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 216 | 301 | 318 | 619 | 102 | 260 | 19 | 11 | 277 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 143 | 134 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 40 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 172 | 213 | 254 | 466 | 82 | 237 | 28 | 3 | 194 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 143 | 131 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 221 | 277 | 321 | 597 | 99 | 277 | 20 | 6 | 267 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 157 | 140 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 60 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 136 | 193 | 207 | 400 | 71 | 217 | 38 | 4 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A RAW | Rome Braves | — | 157 | 136 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 184 | 260 | 279 | 539 | 96 | 255 | 29 | 7 | 238 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 90 | 79 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 165 | 270 | 228 | 498 | 63 | 229 | 26 | 9 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Twins | — | 121 | 114 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 123 | 168 | 167 | 335 | 44 | 172 | 29 | 5 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Twins | — | 140 | 128 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 180 | 250 | 234 | 484 | 55 | 201 | 16 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 202 | 192 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 234 | 265 | 260 | 525 | 26 | 305 | 24 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 304 | 279 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 81 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 161 | 226 | 229 | 456 | 68 | 213 | 27 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 143 | 135 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 40 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 170 | 213 | 252 | 465 | 81 | 226 | 28 | 3 | 194 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 157 | 146 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 60 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 130 | 193 | 199 | 392 | 68 | 204 | 38 | 4 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1157 | 1056 | 182 | 31 | 8 | 5 | 66 | 309 | 9 | 46 | 21 | 172 | 227 | 231 | 458 | 59 | 234 | 27 | 6 | 204 | 24 | -105 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +25 | -7.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 102 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 174 | 5 | 26 | 12 | 172 | 226 | 229 | 456 | 57 | 234 | 27 | 6 | 204 | 24 | -59 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -4.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 ARome Braves · 157 PAwOBA .236 → .176 (−59)K% 28.7% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.66% | ÷1.001 | ×1.340 | — | — | 38.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.37% | ÷0.982 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.91% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 1.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.48% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 14.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.79% | ÷1.080 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 6.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.10% | ÷0.851 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 1.04% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 101, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .236 → .176; ISO .096 → .071; BABIP .255 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 108 PAwOBA .232 → .175 (−56)K% 22.2% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.980 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.48% | ÷1.041 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 4.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.86% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | 13.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.76% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | 5.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.993 | ×0.910 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.163 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.92% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 99, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .232 → .175; ISO .102 → .073; BABIP .233 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKElizabethton Twins · 35 PAwOBA .348 → .254 (−94)K% 14.3% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 20.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.965 | 1.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.965 | 2.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.965 | 23.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | — | ×0.965 | 7.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .348 → .254; ISO .091 → .062; BABIP .393 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 173 PAwOBA .233 → .185 (−48)K% 23.1% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.12% | ÷0.977 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.25% | ÷0.925 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.12% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | — | 15.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.31% | ÷1.086 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | — | 4.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | — | 1.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 103, 2B 117, 3B 102, K 95, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .233 → .185; ISO .073 → .056; BABIP .246 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKElizabethton Twins · 131 PAwOBA .329 → .243 (−86)K% 13.7% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 19.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.975 | 7.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.984 | ×0.975 | 16.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.984 | ×0.975 | 3.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.984 | ×0.975 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.975 | 2.46% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .329 → .243; ISO .142 → .107; BABIP .277 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKElizabethton Twins · 202 PAwOBA .300 → .231 (−69)K% 16.8% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.83% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 23.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.985 | 4.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.024 | ×0.985 | 28.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.024 | ×0.985 | 1.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.024 | ×0.985 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .300 → .231; ISO .032 → .023; BABIP .364 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKGCL Twins · 140 PAwOBA .279 → .215 (−64)K% 10.7% → 15.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.71% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 15.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.020 | ×0.995 | 16.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.020 | ×0.995 | 3.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.020 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.75% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .279 → .215; ISO .067 → .052; BABIP .248 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKGCL Twins · 121 PAwOBA .207 → .151 (−56)K% 19.8% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.83% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.032 | ×1.008 | 13.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.032 | ×1.008 | 3.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.032 | ×1.008 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .207 → .151; ISO .055 → .039; BABIP .209 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).