Luis Reyes

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

Scout OFP47MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	27	MIX2 levels	26	21	121	5.80	4.73	21.3%	12.7%	—	K 17.4% · BB 13.9% · FIP 5.44
2023	28	AAAWSH	45	0	68	4.35	3.92	21.4%	14.7%	—	K 18.4% · BB 13.2% · FIP 3.95
2024	29	AAAWSH	32	1	44	6.80	4.77	12.7%	11.7%	—	K 10.9% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.67
2027PROJ	32	MLBWSH	26	26	163	4.89	4.89	18.1%	10.4%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBWSH	9	9	55	4.97	5.07	18.0%	10.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBWSH	7	7	44	5.14	5.29	17.7%	10.9%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control45Command45FB velo55

CompsKenshin Kawakami (age 34) · Pete Walker (age 33) · Jason Berken (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%18.1%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP163

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 163 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4045

CMD4045

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	24	24	118	514	72	50	10	100%	4.9	10.4%	11.5%	-1.1%	2.6%	4.82	5.10	—
2015	20	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	24	24	118	514	72	50	10	100%	4.9	14.0%	9.7%	4.3%	1.9%	4.82	4.26	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	87	397	53	52	9	100%	5.1	10.2%	15.1%	-4.9%	2.7%	5.09	5.62	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	87	397	53	52	9	100%	5.1	13.4%	13.1%	0.3%	2.3%	5.09	5.03	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	26	26	143	622	133	54	19	100%	5.5	16.5%	10.0%	6.5%	2.8%	4.33	4.51	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	Potomac Nationals	26	26	143	622	133	54	19	100%	5.5	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.33	4.10	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	68	304	39	32	9	100%	4.9	10.2%	12.4%	-2.1%	4.1%	5.14	6.05	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	68	304	39	32	9	100%	4.9	12.8%	10.5%	2.3%	3.0%	5.14	5.08	—
2019	24	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	31	7	77	338	78	35	2	23%	2.5	17.8%	11.9%	5.9%	0.7%	4.81	3.52	—
2019	24	A+ RAW	Potomac Nationals	31	7	77	338	78	35	2	23%	2.5	23.1%	10.4%	12.7%	0.6%	4.81	2.77	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	127	553	109	59	19	96%	5.1	16.3%	11.5%	4.8%	4.0%	5.19	5.35	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	127	553	109	59	19	96%	5.1	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	3.4%	5.19	4.73	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	121	534	114	68	17	81%	4.7	17.4%	13.9%	3.6%	3.7%	5.80	5.44	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	21	121	534	114	68	17	81%	4.7	21.3%	12.7%	8.6%	3.2%	5.80	4.73	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	45	0	68	313	67	46	4	0%	1.5	18.4%	13.2%	5.2%	1.3%	4.35	3.95	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	45	0	68	313	67	46	4	0%	1.5	21.4%	14.7%	6.7%	1.3%	4.35	3.92	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	32	1	44	213	27	25	4	3%	1.4	10.9%	10.6%	0.3%	2.1%	6.80	4.67	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	32	1	44	213	27	25	4	3%	1.4	10.9%	10.6%	0.3%	2.1%	6.80	4.67	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	32	1	44	213	27	25	4	3%	1.4	12.7%	11.7%	0.9%	1.9%	6.80	4.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	WSH	26	26	163	688	124	72	20	100%	6.3	18.1%	10.4%	7.6%	2.9%	4.89	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	150	632	114	67	20	100%	6.2	18.0%	10.6%	7.4%	3.2%	4.97	5.07	-0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	136	575	102	63	20	100%	6.5	17.7%	10.9%	6.8%	3.5%	5.14	5.29	-0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	55	232	42	25	7	100%	6.1	18.0%	10.6%	7.4%	3.2%	4.97	5.07	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	44	186	33	20	7	100%	6.3	17.7%	10.9%	6.8%	3.5%	5.14	5.29	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	16	99	418	75	45	14	100%	6.2	17.8%	10.7%	7.1%	3.3%	5.05	4.79	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	151	91	28	100%	6.4	17.8%	10.7%	7.1%	3.3%	5.05	4.79	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		240	134	852	3788	552	460	107	56%	3.6	14.6%	12.2%	2.4%	2.8%	5.05	4.96	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	31	200	889	129	108	25	56%	3.6	14.6%	12.2%	2.4%	2.8%	5.05	4.96	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	18.1%	10.4%	2.9%	—	5.17	17.8%	7.1%	286	+0.28	—	—	—
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	72
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	68
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	468	65
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	64
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	61
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.13	476	60
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	60
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	60
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	58
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	58
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	58
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	58
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	58
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	57
Junior Guerra R 2017 · 5.24 FIP	32	SP-	5.24	19.4%	12.8%	3.9%	.255	3.99	22.2%	12.5%	248	-1.25	3.18	646	57
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	54
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	54
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	54
Alex Caldera R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	30	SP	4.54	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	120	53
Cody Mincey R 2022 · 5.56 FIP	30	SP	5.56	13.9%	8.4%	4.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	147	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	150	17.9%	10.6%	1.24	4.99
Bill Parsons ('71-'74, 1 WAR*)	2.6	173	17.3%*	10.1%*	1.36*	5.01*
Wayland Dean ('24-'27, -1 WAR*)	2.4	162	18.6%*	10.1%*	1.45*	5.13*
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
Socks Seibold ('16-'33, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	15.4%*	9.6%*	1.16*	4.69*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86