Ademar Rifaela
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | AABowie Baysox | 396 | .265/.325/.396 | 7 | 2 | 74 | — | .245/.292/.351 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 381 | .249/.315/.423 | 10 | 1 | 56 | — | .197/.243/.331 |
| 2023 | 28 | INTLCuracao | 171 | .228/.327/.336 | 3 | 0 | 94 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 269 | 221 | 54 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 41 | 48 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 244 | 377 | 344 | 721 | 100 | 310 | 18 | 15 | 335 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK | GCL Orioles | — | 116 | 99 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 336 | 394 | 730 | 152 | 256 | 15 | 12 | 322 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 262 | 233 | 61 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 59 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 262 | 341 | 399 | 740 | 137 | 331 | 23 | 10 | 333 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 20 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 250 | 389 | 639 | 222 | 167 | 25 | 10 | 283 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 375 | 343 | 82 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 97 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 239 | 298 | 420 | 718 | 181 | 297 | 26 | 7 | 315 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 508 | 450 | 128 | 23 | 1 | 24 | 41 | 124 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 284 | 360 | 500 | 860 | 216 | 341 | 24 | 8 | 376 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 73 | 66 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 227 | 301 | 288 | 589 | 61 | 319 | 26 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 396 | 359 | 95 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 95 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 265 | 325 | 396 | 720 | 131 | 337 | 24 | 8 | 319 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 142 | 127 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 312 | 378 | 690 | 142 | 304 | 24 | 8 | 308 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 239 | 218 | 56 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 316 | 450 | 766 | 193 | 331 | 28 | 7 | 335 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL | Curacao | — | 171 | 149 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 228 | 327 | 336 | 663 | 107 | 290 | 23 | 11 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 269 | 236 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 59 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 157 | 257 | 216 | 474 | 59 | 205 | 22 | 10 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 116 | 104 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 248 | 288 | 536 | 106 | 205 | 21 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 262 | 241 | 52 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 81 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 216 | 276 | 324 | 600 | 108 | 300 | 31 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 20 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 200 | 368 | 568 | 211 | 144 | 35 | 5 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 375 | 354 | 68 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 130 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 192 | 231 | 336 | 567 | 144 | 262 | 35 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 508 | 468 | 107 | 20 | 1 | 16 | 23 | 177 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 229 | 282 | 378 | 661 | 150 | 320 | 35 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 396 | 367 | 90 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 121 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 245 | 292 | 351 | 643 | 106 | 337 | 31 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 142 | 131 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 255 | 328 | 584 | 130 | 269 | 30 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 239 | 225 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 236 | 333 | 570 | 138 | 284 | 36 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 269 | 236 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 59 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 157 | 257 | 216 | 474 | 59 | 208 | 22 | 10 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 269 | 221 | 54 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 41 | 48 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 244 | 377 | 344 | 721 | 100 | 310 | 18 | 15 | 335 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 116 | 104 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 248 | 288 | 536 | 106 | 208 | 21 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Orioles | — | 116 | 99 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 336 | 394 | 730 | 152 | 256 | 15 | 12 | 322 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 262 | 241 | 52 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 81 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 216 | 276 | 324 | 600 | 108 | 308 | 31 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A RAW | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 262 | 233 | 61 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 59 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 262 | 341 | 399 | 740 | 137 | 331 | 23 | 10 | 333 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 372 | 69 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 137 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 185 | 227 | 323 | 550 | 137 | 260 | 35 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 395 | 361 | 85 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 29 | 102 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 235 | 296 | 418 | 714 | 183 | 290 | 26 | 7 | 314 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 581 | 537 | 123 | 23 | 1 | 18 | 26 | 203 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 229 | 281 | 376 | 657 | 147 | 329 | 35 | 4 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 581 | 516 | 143 | 25 | 2 | 24 | 47 | 143 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 277 | 352 | 473 | 825 | 196 | 338 | 25 | 8 | 363 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 396 | 367 | 90 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 121 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 245 | 292 | 351 | 643 | 106 | 347 | 31 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | Bowie Baysox | — | 396 | 359 | 95 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 95 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 265 | 325 | 396 | 720 | 131 | 337 | 24 | 8 | 319 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 381 | 356 | 71 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 129 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 199 | 246 | 334 | 580 | 135 | 284 | 34 | 4 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 381 | 345 | 86 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 101 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 249 | 315 | 423 | 738 | 174 | 321 | 27 | 7 | 325 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL MLE | Curacao | — | 171 | 149 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 228 | 327 | 336 | 663 | 107 | 290 | 23 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL RAW | Curacao | — | 171 | 149 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 228 | 327 | 336 | 663 | 107 | 290 | 23 | 11 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 269 | 235 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 59 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 157 | 257 | 217 | 474 | 60 | 205 | 22 | 10 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 116 | 106 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 248 | 283 | 531 | 104 | 205 | 21 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 262 | 240 | 52 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 81 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 217 | 276 | 325 | 601 | 108 | 300 | 31 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 372 | 69 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 137 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 185 | 227 | 323 | 550 | 137 | 256 | 35 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 581 | 537 | 123 | 23 | 1 | 18 | 26 | 203 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 229 | 281 | 376 | 657 | 147 | 320 | 35 | 4 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 396 | 369 | 90 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 121 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 244 | 292 | 350 | 641 | 106 | 337 | 31 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 381 | 356 | 71 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 129 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 199 | 246 | 334 | 580 | 135 | 278 | 34 | 4 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2571 | 2362 | 495 | 97 | 17 | 51 | 154 | 793 | 34 | 21 | 26 | 210 | 268 | 330 | 598 | 120 | 290 | 31 | 6 | 242 | 50 | -154 | -6 | +0 | -28 | +56 | -13.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 125 | 25 | 4 | 13 | 39 | 200 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 209 | 268 | 330 | 598 | 121 | 289 | 31 | 6 | 242 | 50 | -39 | -2 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -3.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AABowie Baysox · 239 PAwOBA .326 → .251 (−74)K% 28.0% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.03% | ÷0.940 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.28% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.85% | ÷1.031 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 19.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.95% | ÷0.987 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.99% | ÷1.116 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.30% | ÷0.987 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.18% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 123, K 88, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .326 → .251; ISO .193 → .143; BABIP .331 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAANorfolk Tides · 142 PAwOBA .300 → .253 (−47)K% 23.9% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.94% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.04% | ÷1.103 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.43% | ÷1.033 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 18.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 5.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.23% | ÷0.954 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 3.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.15% | ÷0.889 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 2.10% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 95, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .300 → .253; ISO .142 → .129; BABIP .304 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AABowie Baysox · 396 PAwOBA .314 → .278 (−35)K% 24.0% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.99% | ÷0.960 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.58% | ÷0.978 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.51% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.24% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 24.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.971 | ×0.860 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 7.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.97% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .314 → .278; ISO .131 → .108; BABIP .337 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Frederick Keys · 508 PAwOBA .365 → .285 (−80)K% 24.4% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.41% | ÷0.993 | ×1.420 | — | — | 34.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.28% | ÷1.010 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 4.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.36% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 2.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.54% | ÷1.006 | ×0.940 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 23.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.06% | ÷0.914 | ×0.830 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 6.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 0.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.36% | ÷1.238 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 5.34% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 101, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .365 → .285; ISO .216 → .153; BABIP .341 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 375 PAwOBA .308 → .240 (−68)K% 25.9% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.87% | ÷1.001 | ×1.340 | — | — | 34.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.20% | ÷1.079 | ×0.660 | — | — | 4.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.33% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | — | 18.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.69% | ÷1.008 | ×0.820 | ×1.010 | — | 4.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.010 | — | 2.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.88% | ÷0.928 | ×0.820 | — | — | 4.31% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 100, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .308 → .240; ISO .181 → .143; BABIP .297 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Frederick Keys · 20 PAwOBA .275 → .195 (−80)K% 25.0% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.003 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 6.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.035 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.012 | 7.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.997 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 6.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.214 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 5.77% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 95, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .275 → .195; ISO .222 → .153; BABIP .167 → .144. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 262 PAwOBA .324 → .261 (−63)K% 22.5% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.52% | ÷0.977 | ×1.340 | — | — | 30.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.54% | ÷1.009 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 6.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.99% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×1.015 | 21.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.62% | ÷1.027 | ×0.820 | ×1.031 | ×1.015 | 7.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷0.964 | ×0.940 | ×1.031 | ×1.015 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.87% | ÷0.902 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 2.65% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 107, 2B 106, 3B 93, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .324 → .261; ISO .137 → .114; BABIP .331 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKGCL Orioles · 116 PAwOBA .314 → .236 (−77)K% 14.7% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.66% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.008 | ×0.995 | 17.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.008 | ×0.995 | 2.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.008 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.79% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .314 → .236; ISO .152 → .117; BABIP .256 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .