Omar Carrizales
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | AAA/AA/A+/A/INTL5 orgs | 343 | .250/.315/.318 | 2 | 7 | 52 | — | .177/.225/.230 |
| 2020 | 25 | INTLBravos de Mar… | 41 | .162/.244/.243 | 0 | 0 | 41 | — | |
| 2021 | 26 | INTLBravos de Mar… | 45 | .190/.227/.405 | 3 | 0 | 69 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 285 | 255 | 77 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 27 | 4 | 30 | 12 | 302 | 357 | 353 | 710 | 51 | 335 | 9 | 6 | 316 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 175 | 153 | 47 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 33 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 307 | 380 | 379 | 759 | 72 | 385 | 19 | 10 | 338 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 436 | 388 | 111 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 31 | 74 | 0 | 23 | 16 | 286 | 339 | 410 | 749 | 124 | 331 | 17 | 7 | 322 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 84 | 80 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 250 | 286 | 275 | 561 | 25 | 317 | 20 | 5 | 258 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 423 | 388 | 114 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 24 | 69 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 294 | 338 | 428 | 766 | 134 | 342 | 16 | 6 | 333 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 170 | 147 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 29 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 252 | 341 | 320 | 661 | 68 | 311 | 17 | 12 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 492 | 432 | 107 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 96 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 248 | 330 | 352 | 682 | 104 | 305 | 20 | 10 | 307 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 231 | 197 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 36 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 274 | 373 | 315 | 688 | 41 | 335 | 16 | 12 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 309 | 279 | 64 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 76 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 229 | 290 | 376 | 667 | 147 | 289 | 25 | 7 | 293 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 48 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 179 | 319 | 205 | 524 | 26 | 280 | 31 | 12 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 15 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 333 | 167 | 500 | 250 | 27 | 20 | 260 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 34 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 206 | 250 | 456 | 94 | 192 | 18 | 6 | 206 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Tampa Tarpons | — | 153 | 138 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 318 | 304 | 622 | 51 | 321 | 20 | 7 | 284 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 42 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 200 | 256 | 456 | 77 | 259 | 29 | 2 | 193 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 99 | 87 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 322 | 392 | 414 | 806 | 92 | 356 | 13 | 9 | 358 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 41 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 162 | 244 | 243 | 487 | 81 | 188 | 12 | 10 | 228 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 45 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 227 | 405 | 632 | 214 | 179 | 24 | 4 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 285 | 260 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 4 | 30 | 12 | 208 | 256 | 238 | 495 | 31 | 225 | 12 | 5 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 175 | 160 | 39 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 48 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 244 | 287 | 294 | 580 | 50 | 327 | 27 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 436 | 399 | 102 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 97 | 0 | 23 | 16 | 256 | 291 | 351 | 642 | 95 | 301 | 22 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 84 | 81 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 259 | 286 | 284 | 570 | 25 | 334 | 24 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 423 | 395 | 106 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 96 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 268 | 302 | 382 | 684 | 114 | 328 | 23 | 4 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 492 | 446 | 109 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 111 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 244 | 305 | 341 | 646 | 96 | 305 | 23 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 309 | 286 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 90 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 203 | 248 | 315 | 562 | 112 | 267 | 29 | 5 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 154 | 421 | 239 | 33 | 13 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 34 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 176 | 242 | 419 | 91 | 187 | 24 | 3 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 153 | 141 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 191 | 245 | 234 | 479 | 43 | 267 | 28 | 5 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 42 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 175 | 231 | 406 | 77 | 224 | 40 | 2 | 146 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 285 | 260 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 4 | 30 | 12 | 208 | 256 | 238 | 495 | 31 | 236 | 12 | 5 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 285 | 255 | 77 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 27 | 4 | 30 | 12 | 302 | 357 | 353 | 710 | 51 | 335 | 9 | 6 | 316 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 175 | 161 | 39 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 48 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 242 | 287 | 292 | 578 | 50 | 339 | 27 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK RAW | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 175 | 153 | 47 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 33 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 307 | 380 | 379 | 759 | 72 | 385 | 19 | 10 | 338 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 436 | 399 | 102 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 97 | 0 | 23 | 16 | 256 | 291 | 351 | 642 | 95 | 319 | 22 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 436 | 388 | 111 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 31 | 74 | 0 | 23 | 16 | 286 | 339 | 410 | 749 | 124 | 331 | 17 | 7 | 322 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 677 | 636 | 168 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 27 | 156 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 264 | 296 | 360 | 656 | 96 | 336 | 23 | 4 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 677 | 615 | 171 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 48 | 115 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 278 | 332 | 382 | 714 | 104 | 331 | 17 | 7 | 316 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 723 | 655 | 158 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 50 | 163 | 8 | 19 | 15 | 241 | 303 | 333 | 636 | 92 | 312 | 23 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 723 | 629 | 161 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 76 | 132 | 8 | 19 | 15 | 256 | 344 | 340 | 684 | 84 | 315 | 18 | 11 | 311 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 357 | 329 | 66 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 104 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 201 | 249 | 304 | 553 | 103 | 275 | 29 | 5 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 357 | 318 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 91 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 223 | 294 | 355 | 650 | 132 | 288 | 25 | 8 | 288 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | 5 teams | — | 343 | 317 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 101 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 174 | 223 | 221 | 443 | 47 | 252 | 29 | 5 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ RAW | 5 teams | — | 343 | 308 | 77 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 65 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 250 | 315 | 318 | 633 | 68 | 309 | 19 | 8 | 286 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL MLE | Bravos de Margarita | — | 41 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 162 | 244 | 243 | 487 | 81 | 188 | 12 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL RAW | Bravos de Margarita | — | 41 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 162 | 244 | 243 | 487 | 81 | 188 | 12 | 10 | 228 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | INTL MLE | Bravos de Margarita | — | 45 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 227 | 405 | 632 | 214 | 179 | 24 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | INTL RAW | Bravos de Margarita | — | 45 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 227 | 405 | 632 | 214 | 179 | 24 | 4 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 285 | 266 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 4 | 30 | 12 | 203 | 256 | 233 | 489 | 30 | 225 | 12 | 5 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 175 | 163 | 39 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 48 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 239 | 287 | 288 | 575 | 49 | 327 | 27 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 436 | 413 | 102 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 97 | 0 | 23 | 16 | 247 | 291 | 339 | 630 | 92 | 301 | 22 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 677 | 643 | 168 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 27 | 156 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 261 | 296 | 356 | 652 | 95 | 329 | 23 | 4 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 723 | 659 | 158 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 50 | 163 | 8 | 19 | 15 | 240 | 303 | 331 | 634 | 91 | 305 | 23 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 357 | 333 | 66 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 104 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 198 | 249 | 300 | 549 | 102 | 267 | 29 | 5 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | 5 teams | — | 343 | 320 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 101 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 172 | 223 | 219 | 441 | 47 | 247 | 29 | 5 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3082 | 2836 | 656 | 94 | 32 | 26 | 160 | 718 | 21 | 137 | 68 | 231 | 277 | 315 | 592 | 83 | 298 | 23 | 5 | 251 | 56 | -161 | +0 | +0 | +11 | +67 | -8.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 138 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 34 | 151 | 4 | 29 | 14 | 231 | 277 | 313 | 589 | 82 | 298 | 23 | 5 | 251 | 56 | -34 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 A+Tampa Tarpons · 153 PAwOBA .279 → .215 (−63)K% 19.6% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.61% | ÷0.989 | ×1.420 | — | — | 28.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.19% | ÷1.055 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷1.072 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 20.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.48% | ÷0.954 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 6.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.960 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 114, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .279 → .215; ISO .051 → .045; BABIP .321 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ACharleston RiverDogs · 42 PAwOBA .188 → .146 (−43)K% 28.6% → 39.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.972 | ×1.340 | — | — | 39.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.38% | ÷1.017 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 1.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 16.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.955 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 3.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.980 | 2.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 105, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .188 → .146; ISO .077 → .058; BABIP .259 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AATrenton Thunder · 34 PAwOBA .201 → .178 (−23)K% 17.6% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.956 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.999 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷0.984 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 11.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.040 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 3.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.937 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 3.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 108, 3B 87, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .201 → .178; ISO .094 → .087; BABIP .192 → .187. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 15 PAwOBA .255 → .209 (−47)K% 26.7% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.007 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 13.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 23.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.087 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 88, K 101, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .255 → .209; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAHartford Yard Goats · 309 PAwOBA .286 → .240 (−46)K% 24.6% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.60% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.12% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.21% | ÷1.011 | ×0.970 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 18.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.88% | ÷1.081 | ×0.860 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 6.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.948 | ×0.950 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.194 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.31% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 90, K 107, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .286 → .240; ISO .147 → .112; BABIP .289 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAHartford Yard Goats · 492 PAwOBA .300 → .279 (−21)K% 19.5% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.51% | ÷1.051 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.55% | ÷1.017 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 6.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.92% | ÷1.026 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | ×1.042 | 23.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.95% | ÷1.014 | ×0.860 | ×1.033 | ×1.042 | 5.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | ×1.042 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.183 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.02% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 110, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .300 → .279; ISO .104 → .094; BABIP .305 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Modesto Nuts · 423 PAwOBA .326 → .293 (−33)K% 16.3% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.31% | ÷0.960 | ×1.340 | — | — | 22.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.67% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 4.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.33% | ÷0.990 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 26.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.39% | ÷0.933 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 4.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.13% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 2.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.88% | ÷0.877 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 2.03% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 98, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .326 → .293; ISO .134 → .117; BABIP .342 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAHartford Yard Goats · 84 PAwOBA .251 → .244 (−7)K% 20.2% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.24% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.007 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×1.050 | 30.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.021 | ×0.860 | ×1.027 | ×1.050 | 2.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.094 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 96, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 104, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .251 → .244; ISO .025 → .022; BABIP .317 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .