Michael Beltre
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | AA/A+CIN | 322 | .248/.339/.335 | 4 | 4 | 55 | — | .211/.278/.280 |
| 2021 | 26 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 496 | .260/.343/.460 | 16 | 40 | 88 | — | .227/.290/.400 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 268 | .240/.352/.422 | 9 | 29 | 70 | — | .194/.276/.321 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | — | 149 | 126 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 46 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 222 | 338 | 310 | 647 | 87 | 350 | 31 | 10 | 302 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rojos | — | 198 | 162 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 44 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 278 | 403 | 352 | 755 | 74 | 373 | 22 | 13 | 350 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | AZL Reds | — | 88 | 82 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 220 | 273 | 293 | 565 | 73 | 315 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 219 | 187 | 56 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 38 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 299 | 399 | 481 | 880 | 182 | 363 | 17 | 12 | 389 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 465 | 407 | 97 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 49 | 89 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 238 | 323 | 324 | 647 | 86 | 298 | 19 | 11 | 294 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 229 | 188 | 49 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 48 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 261 | 390 | 362 | 752 | 101 | 345 | 21 | 17 | 346 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 200 | 165 | 49 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 37 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 297 | 408 | 448 | 857 | 152 | 357 | 18 | 14 | 378 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 268 | 231 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 234 | 324 | 316 | 640 | 82 | 293 | 21 | 11 | 290 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 54 | 47 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 319 | 407 | 426 | 833 | 106 | 400 | 20 | 13 | 378 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 453 | 398 | 102 | 21 | 8 | 16 | 50 | 110 | 4 | 37 | 5 | 256 | 345 | 470 | 815 | 214 | 315 | 24 | 11 | 359 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 43 | 41 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 293 | 326 | 366 | 691 | 73 | 375 | 21 | 5 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 65 | 53 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 283 | 415 | 491 | 906 | 208 | 371 | 25 | 17 | 404 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 203 | 172 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 63 | 2 | 23 | 3 | 227 | 332 | 401 | 733 | 174 | 302 | 31 | 12 | 324 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 149 | 130 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 146 | 250 | 200 | 450 | 54 | 243 | 38 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rojos | — | 198 | 171 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 54 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 181 | 286 | 216 | 502 | 35 | 251 | 27 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 88 | 84 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 155 | 193 | 214 | 407 | 60 | 263 | 44 | 3 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 219 | 197 | 43 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 55 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 218 | 294 | 335 | 629 | 117 | 293 | 25 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 465 | 424 | 88 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 32 | 123 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 208 | 266 | 274 | 540 | 66 | 279 | 26 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 229 | 199 | 44 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 66 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 221 | 320 | 302 | 622 | 80 | 324 | 29 | 13 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 200 | 177 | 46 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 51 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 260 | 332 | 384 | 716 | 124 | 334 | 26 | 8 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 268 | 240 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 72 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 200 | 267 | 263 | 530 | 62 | 260 | 27 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 54 | 49 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 265 | 333 | 367 | 701 | 102 | 373 | 30 | 9 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 453 | 415 | 94 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 33 | 131 | 4 | 37 | 5 | 227 | 290 | 400 | 690 | 173 | 300 | 29 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 65 | 57 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 211 | 308 | 333 | 641 | 123 | 318 | 29 | 11 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 203 | 180 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 77 | 2 | 23 | 3 | 189 | 266 | 317 | 583 | 128 | 275 | 38 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 149 | 130 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 146 | 250 | 200 | 450 | 54 | 257 | 38 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Reds | — | 149 | 126 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 46 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 222 | 338 | 310 | 647 | 87 | 350 | 31 | 10 | 302 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rojos | — | 198 | 171 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 54 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 181 | 286 | 216 | 502 | 35 | 263 | 27 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Rojos | — | 198 | 162 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 44 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 278 | 403 | 352 | 755 | 74 | 373 | 22 | 13 | 350 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 88 | 84 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 155 | 193 | 214 | 407 | 60 | 273 | 44 | 3 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK RAW | AZL Reds | — | 88 | 82 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 220 | 273 | 293 | 565 | 73 | 315 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 219 | 197 | 43 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 55 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 218 | 294 | 335 | 629 | 117 | 293 | 25 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 219 | 187 | 56 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 38 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 299 | 399 | 481 | 880 | 182 | 363 | 17 | 12 | 389 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 465 | 424 | 88 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 32 | 123 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 208 | 266 | 274 | 540 | 66 | 288 | 26 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 465 | 407 | 97 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 49 | 89 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 238 | 323 | 324 | 647 | 86 | 298 | 19 | 11 | 294 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 429 | 375 | 90 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 117 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 240 | 328 | 341 | 669 | 101 | 336 | 27 | 11 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 429 | 353 | 98 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 69 | 85 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 278 | 399 | 402 | 801 | 125 | 351 | 20 | 16 | 361 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 289 | 60 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 208 | 275 | 273 | 549 | 66 | 284 | 27 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 322 | 278 | 69 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 68 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 248 | 339 | 335 | 673 | 86 | 311 | 21 | 11 | 305 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 455 | 103 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 143 | 4 | 40 | 5 | 226 | 289 | 400 | 689 | 174 | 300 | 29 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 496 | 439 | 114 | 22 | 9 | 16 | 52 | 119 | 4 | 40 | 5 | 260 | 343 | 460 | 804 | 200 | 321 | 24 | 10 | 355 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 268 | 236 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 96 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 203 | 288 | 343 | 631 | 140 | 299 | 36 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 268 | 225 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 79 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 240 | 352 | 422 | 774 | 182 | 319 | 29 | 13 | 343 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 149 | 130 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 146 | 250 | 200 | 450 | 54 | 243 | 38 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rojos | — | 198 | 171 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 54 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 181 | 286 | 216 | 502 | 35 | 251 | 27 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 88 | 84 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 155 | 193 | 214 | 407 | 60 | 263 | 44 | 3 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 219 | 196 | 43 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 55 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 219 | 294 | 337 | 630 | 117 | 293 | 25 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 465 | 428 | 88 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 32 | 123 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 206 | 266 | 271 | 537 | 65 | 279 | 26 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 429 | 377 | 90 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 117 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 239 | 328 | 340 | 667 | 101 | 329 | 27 | 11 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 292 | 60 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 205 | 275 | 271 | 546 | 65 | 279 | 27 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 453 | 103 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 143 | 4 | 40 | 5 | 227 | 289 | 402 | 691 | 174 | 300 | 29 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 268 | 238 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 96 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 202 | 288 | 340 | 628 | 139 | 285 | 36 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2634 | 2361 | 495 | 80 | 31 | 32 | 212 | 771 | 34 | 140 | 33 | 210 | 284 | 310 | 595 | 101 | 295 | 29 | 8 | 262 | 63 | -115 | +15 | +0 | -28 | +57 | -7.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 123 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 52 | 190 | 8 | 35 | 8 | 211 | 285 | 314 | 598 | 103 | 296 | 29 | 8 | 262 | 63 | -28 | +4 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AASomerset Patriots · 203 PAwOBA .322 → .260 (−62)K% 31.0% → 38.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.03% | ÷0.998 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.32% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 8.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.02% | ÷0.983 | ×0.970 | ×0.984 | ×0.978 | 20.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.42% | ÷0.972 | ×0.860 | ×0.984 | ×0.978 | 5.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.92% | ÷0.969 | ×0.950 | ×0.984 | ×0.978 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.42% | ÷1.032 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 4.75% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 94, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .322 → .260; ISO .174 → .133; BABIP .302 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 65 PAwOBA .394 → .311 (−83)K% 24.6% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.62% | ÷1.001 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.92% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 10.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.62% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 19.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.51% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 11.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.006 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.77% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .394 → .311; ISO .208 → .162; BABIP .371 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASomerset Patriots · 453 PAwOBA .350 → .297 (−54)K% 24.3% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.28% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.04% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 7.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.79% | ÷1.008 | ×0.940 | ×1.031 | ×0.988 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.29% | ÷0.905 | ×0.870 | ×1.031 | ×0.988 | 7.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×0.988 | 2.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.053 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.06% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .350 → .297; ISO .214 → .180; BABIP .315 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 268 PAwOBA .285 → .239 (−46)K% 21.3% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.27% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.45% | ÷0.949 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 7.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.71% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 22.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.160 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 2.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.43% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 95, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 93, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .285 → .239; ISO .082 → .068; BABIP .293 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Daytona Tortugas · 54 PAwOBA .368 → .300 (−69)K% 20.4% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.37% | ÷0.985 | ×1.420 | — | — | 29.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.96% | ÷1.016 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 9.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 31.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.042 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.988 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.101 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.19% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 93, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .368 → .300; ISO .106 → .082; BABIP .400 → .373. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Daytona Tortugas · 229 PAwOBA .337 → .282 (−55)K% 21.0% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.96% | ÷1.035 | ×1.420 | — | — | 28.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.03% | ÷0.994 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 12.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.43% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 25.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.088 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 3.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.047 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 2.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.058 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.59% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 118, 3B 109, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .337 → .282; ISO .101 → .082; BABIP .345 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ADayton Dragons · 200 PAwOBA .371 → .312 (−58)K% 18.5% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.50% | ÷0.987 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.00% | ÷1.097 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.34% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 25.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.47% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 5.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.34% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 2.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.103 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.24% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 104, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 97, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .371 → .312; ISO .152 → .131; BABIP .357 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ADayton Dragons · 465 PAwOBA .287 → .237 (−49)K% 19.1% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.14% | ÷0.984 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.54% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.27% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | — | 22.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.40% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | — | 3.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | — | 1.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.168 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.65% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 97, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .287 → .237; ISO .086 → .068; BABIP .298 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .