Jantzen Witte
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 31 | AAASEA | 455 | .299/.367/.491 | 19 | 3 | 94 | — | .261/.307/.396 |
| 2023 | 33 | AAASD | 439 | .253/.327/.460 | 17 | 7 | 57 | — | .196/.251/.329 |
| 2024 | 34 | AAATEX | 175 | .238/.335/.430 | 7 | 0 | 59 | — | .189/.254/.321 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 47 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 340 | 341 | 682 | 98 | 312 | 19 | 13 | 313 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 282 | 257 | 76 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 41 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 296 | 347 | 451 | 798 | 156 | 332 | 15 | 6 | 347 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 283 | 233 | 77 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 56 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 330 | 429 | 554 | 983 | 223 | 390 | 20 | 13 | 418 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 362 | 314 | 89 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 47 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 283 | 367 | 414 | 781 | 131 | 317 | 13 | 10 | 347 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 395 | 357 | 92 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 58 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 258 | 327 | 361 | 689 | 104 | 302 | 15 | 8 | 312 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 48 | 39 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 359 | 468 | 538 | 1.007 | 179 | 353 | 8 | 17 | 437 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 283 | 244 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 52 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 242 | 342 | 328 | 670 | 86 | 296 | 18 | 12 | 309 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 113 | 103 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 252 | 312 | 408 | 720 | 155 | 348 | 28 | 6 | 318 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 316 | 278 | 77 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 74 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 277 | 357 | 457 | 814 | 180 | 342 | 23 | 10 | 359 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 436 | 393 | 109 | 22 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 82 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 277 | 343 | 394 | 737 | 117 | 329 | 19 | 8 | 330 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 300 | 490 | 150 | 200 | 43 | 5 | 218 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | INTL | Cangrejeros de Santurce | — | 85 | 77 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 208 | 282 | 286 | 568 | 78 | 267 | 20 | 9 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 455 | 405 | 121 | 19 | 1 | 19 | 41 | 80 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 299 | 367 | 491 | 858 | 193 | 329 | 18 | 9 | 375 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 439 | 391 | 99 | 26 | 2 | 17 | 39 | 109 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 253 | 327 | 460 | 788 | 207 | 305 | 25 | 9 | 344 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 34 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 175 | 151 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 238 | 335 | 430 | 766 | 192 | 276 | 23 | 13 | 338 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 47 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 163 | 234 | 233 | 467 | 70 | 238 | 28 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 282 | 265 | 65 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 58 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 245 | 278 | 362 | 640 | 117 | 296 | 21 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 283 | 247 | 63 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 79 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 255 | 331 | 413 | 744 | 158 | 322 | 28 | 8 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 362 | 329 | 87 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 58 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 264 | 322 | 371 | 693 | 106 | 299 | 16 | 6 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 395 | 367 | 91 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 71 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 248 | 299 | 343 | 643 | 95 | 302 | 18 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 48 | 42 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 310 | 383 | 405 | 788 | 95 | 316 | 10 | 10 | 361 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 283 | 253 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 63 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 221 | 299 | 289 | 587 | 67 | 283 | 22 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 113 | 106 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 250 | 321 | 571 | 113 | 314 | 35 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 316 | 290 | 69 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 92 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 238 | 296 | 359 | 655 | 121 | 316 | 29 | 6 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 436 | 403 | 97 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 98 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 241 | 292 | 333 | 624 | 92 | 297 | 22 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 300 | 490 | 150 | 179 | 52 | 5 | 149 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 455 | 422 | 110 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 261 | 307 | 396 | 702 | 135 | 302 | 21 | 5 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 439 | 404 | 79 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 133 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 196 | 251 | 329 | 580 | 134 | 253 | 30 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 34 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 175 | 159 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 189 | 254 | 321 | 575 | 132 | 223 | 26 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 47 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 163 | 234 | 233 | 467 | 70 | 233 | 28 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 47 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 340 | 341 | 682 | 98 | 312 | 19 | 13 | 313 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 565 | 512 | 131 | 34 | 5 | 10 | 33 | 137 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 256 | 310 | 400 | 710 | 145 | 320 | 24 | 6 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 565 | 490 | 153 | 44 | 6 | 12 | 54 | 97 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 312 | 388 | 500 | 888 | 188 | 358 | 17 | 10 | 383 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 362 | 329 | 87 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 58 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 264 | 322 | 371 | 693 | 106 | 308 | 16 | 6 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 362 | 314 | 89 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 47 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 283 | 367 | 414 | 781 | 131 | 317 | 13 | 10 | 347 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 409 | 104 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 76 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 254 | 308 | 350 | 658 | 95 | 304 | 17 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 443 | 396 | 106 | 30 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 62 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 268 | 342 | 379 | 721 | 111 | 307 | 14 | 9 | 326 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 283 | 253 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 63 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 221 | 299 | 289 | 587 | 67 | 287 | 22 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 283 | 244 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 52 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 242 | 342 | 328 | 670 | 86 | 296 | 18 | 12 | 309 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 429 | 396 | 91 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 131 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 230 | 284 | 354 | 638 | 124 | 320 | 31 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 429 | 381 | 103 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 38 | 106 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 270 | 345 | 444 | 789 | 173 | 343 | 25 | 9 | 348 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 542 | 504 | 118 | 23 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 129 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 234 | 283 | 327 | 610 | 93 | 296 | 24 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 542 | 490 | 128 | 28 | 0 | 9 | 43 | 108 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 261 | 327 | 373 | 701 | 112 | 316 | 20 | 8 | 315 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 455 | 422 | 110 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 261 | 307 | 396 | 702 | 135 | 306 | 21 | 5 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 455 | 405 | 121 | 19 | 1 | 19 | 41 | 80 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 299 | 367 | 491 | 858 | 193 | 329 | 18 | 9 | 375 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 439 | 404 | 79 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 133 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 196 | 251 | 329 | 580 | 134 | 260 | 30 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 439 | 391 | 99 | 26 | 2 | 17 | 39 | 109 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 253 | 327 | 460 | 788 | 207 | 305 | 25 | 9 | 344 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 34 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 175 | 159 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 189 | 254 | 321 | 575 | 132 | 227 | 26 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 34 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 175 | 151 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 238 | 335 | 430 | 766 | 192 | 276 | 23 | 13 | 338 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 47 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 163 | 234 | 233 | 467 | 70 | 238 | 28 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 565 | 520 | 131 | 34 | 5 | 10 | 33 | 137 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 252 | 310 | 394 | 704 | 142 | 309 | 24 | 6 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 362 | 331 | 87 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 58 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 263 | 322 | 369 | 691 | 106 | 299 | 16 | 6 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 408 | 104 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 76 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 255 | 308 | 350 | 659 | 96 | 304 | 17 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 283 | 253 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 63 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 221 | 299 | 289 | 587 | 67 | 283 | 22 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 429 | 396 | 91 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 131 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 230 | 284 | 354 | 638 | 124 | 315 | 31 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 542 | 503 | 118 | 23 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 129 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 235 | 283 | 328 | 611 | 93 | 292 | 24 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 455 | 424 | 110 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 259 | 307 | 394 | 701 | 134 | 302 | 21 | 5 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 439 | 406 | 79 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 133 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 195 | 251 | 328 | 579 | 133 | 253 | 30 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 34 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 175 | 159 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 189 | 254 | 321 | 575 | 132 | 223 | 26 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 34 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 175 | 159 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 189 | 254 | 321 | 575 | 132 | 223 | 26 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3740 | 3431 | 813 | 178 | 16 | 62 | 229 | 882 | 39 | 42 | 32 | 237 | 292 | 352 | 645 | 115 | 298 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 78 | -100 | -4 | +0 | +13 | +81 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 142 | 31 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 153 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 238 | 294 | 356 | 650 | 117 | 299 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 78 | -17 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAARound Rock Express · 175 PAwOBA .333 → .256 (−78)K% 23.4% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.43% | ÷1.069 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.57% | ÷1.040 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.940 | 7.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.09% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×0.959 | ×0.940 | 16.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×0.959 | ×0.940 | 5.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.959 | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.36% | ÷0.928 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.940 | 4.51% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 114, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .333 → .256; ISO .192 → .145; BABIP .276 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 439 PAwOBA .338 → .253 (−85)K% 24.8% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.83% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.88% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.942 | 5.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.942 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.15% | ÷0.958 | ×0.930 | ×0.969 | ×0.942 | 16.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.22% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×0.942 | 7.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.969 | ×0.942 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.03% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.942 | 3.78% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .338 → .253; ISO .207 → .138; BABIP .305 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAATacoma Rainiers · 455 PAwOBA .367 → .307 (−60)K% 17.6% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.58% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.79% | ÷1.045 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 5.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.66% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.23% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×1.021 | ×0.962 | 24.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.85% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×0.962 | 4.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×0.962 | 0.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.85% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 4.06% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 98, 3B 95, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .367 → .307; ISO .193 → .143; BABIP .329 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 436 PAwOBA .324 → .277 (−47)K% 18.8% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.81% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.80% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 5.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.40% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×0.959 | ×0.982 | 23.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.07% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | ×0.959 | ×0.982 | 6.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.959 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.57% | ÷1.038 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 2.05% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 91, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .324 → .277; ISO .117 → .097; BABIP .329 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 21 PAwOBA .212 → .149 (−63)K% 42.9% → 52.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.86% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 52.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷0.997 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 3.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.958 | 16.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.158 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.953 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 7.13% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 132, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .212 → .149; ISO .150 → .099; BABIP .200 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 316 PAwOBA .352 → .285 (−67)K% 23.4% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.42% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.81% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 6.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.001 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 23.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷1.052 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 7.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.90% | ÷1.166 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 3.17% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .352 → .285; ISO .180 → .128; BABIP .342 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 113 PAwOBA .309 → .251 (−58)K% 28.3% → 34.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.32% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.19% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.77% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.018 | ×0.992 | 21.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.45% | ÷1.067 | ×0.830 | ×1.018 | ×0.992 | 6.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.82% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×0.992 | 3.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.342 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 1.75% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 100, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .309 → .251; ISO .155 → .119; BABIP .348 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 283 PAwOBA .301 → .265 (−36)K% 18.4% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.37% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.37% | ÷0.937 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 9.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.44% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | ×1.027 | ×1.003 | 22.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.21% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | ×1.027 | ×1.003 | 4.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×1.003 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.106 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 100, K 97, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .301 → .265; ISO .086 → .073; BABIP .296 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .