Jake Romanski
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 27 | A+/INTL2 orgs | 224 | .263/.314/.371 | 4 | 2 | 80 | — | .191/.214/.294 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 119 | .209/.250/.255 | 0 | 0 | 13 | — | .180/.215/.217 |
| 2020 | 29 | INTLMelbourne Aces | 79 | .225/.286/.310 | 0 | 0 | 66 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 23 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 56 | 55 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 291 | 304 | 527 | 831 | 236 | 292 | 9 | 2 | 360 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 331 | 300 | 81 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 39 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 270 | 326 | 347 | 673 | 77 | 304 | 12 | 7 | 300 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 59 | 56 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 305 | 339 | 644 | 71 | 286 | 10 | 5 | 292 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 186 | 164 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 262 | 339 | 317 | 656 | 55 | 297 | 11 | 9 | 299 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 357 | 334 | 103 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 308 | 342 | 410 | 752 | 102 | 345 | 13 | 4 | 331 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 57 | 56 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 298 | 304 | 602 | 18 | 308 | 7 | 2 | 273 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 122 | 120 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 246 | 283 | 529 | 50 | 270 | 16 | 2 | 238 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 72 | 67 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 257 | 343 | 600 | 119 | 241 | 12 | 3 | 260 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | INTL | Melbourne Aces | — | 152 | 138 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 283 | 340 | 384 | 724 | 101 | 295 | 9 | 7 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 23 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 261 | 286 | 547 | 95 | 235 | 17 | 0 | 254 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 96 | 89 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 213 | 247 | 247 | 495 | 34 | 288 | 25 | 3 | 220 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 29 | INTL | Melbourne Aces | — | 79 | 71 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 286 | 310 | 596 | 85 | 276 | 16 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 56 | 55 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 268 | 473 | 741 | 218 | 261 | 12 | 2 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 331 | 309 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 55 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 236 | 274 | 298 | 572 | 61 | 276 | 17 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 59 | 57 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 281 | 305 | 351 | 656 | 70 | 295 | 12 | 3 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 186 | 171 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 228 | 279 | 275 | 554 | 47 | 269 | 17 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 357 | 340 | 94 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 276 | 299 | 350 | 649 | 74 | 321 | 16 | 3 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 57 | 56 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 281 | 286 | 566 | 18 | 286 | 9 | 2 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 122 | 121 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 215 | 221 | 256 | 478 | 41 | 261 | 20 | 1 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 72 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 214 | 294 | 508 | 103 | 202 | 18 | 1 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 23 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 261 | 286 | 547 | 95 | 220 | 22 | 0 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 96 | 90 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 178 | 204 | 200 | 404 | 22 | 251 | 31 | 2 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 387 | 364 | 87 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 62 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 239 | 273 | 316 | 589 | 77 | 281 | 16 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 387 | 355 | 97 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 44 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 273 | 323 | 375 | 697 | 101 | 302 | 11 | 6 | 309 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 245 | 228 | 55 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 38 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 241 | 285 | 294 | 579 | 53 | 283 | 16 | 4 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 245 | 220 | 58 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 264 | 331 | 323 | 653 | 59 | 294 | 11 | 8 | 298 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 357 | 340 | 94 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 276 | 299 | 350 | 649 | 74 | 324 | 16 | 3 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 357 | 334 | 103 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 308 | 342 | 410 | 752 | 102 | 345 | 13 | 4 | 331 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 177 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 232 | 240 | 266 | 506 | 34 | 272 | 16 | 1 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 179 | 176 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 263 | 290 | 552 | 40 | 283 | 13 | 2 | 249 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 224 | 213 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 178 | 205 | 272 | 477 | 94 | 206 | 18 | 2 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 224 | 205 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 314 | 371 | 684 | 107 | 278 | 10 | 5 | 303 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 119 | 111 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 180 | 216 | 216 | 432 | 36 | 256 | 29 | 2 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 119 | 110 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 209 | 250 | 255 | 505 | 45 | 277 | 24 | 3 | 227 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 29 | INTL MLE | Melbourne Aces | — | 79 | 71 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 286 | 310 | 596 | 85 | 276 | 16 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 29 | INTL RAW | Melbourne Aces | — | 79 | 71 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 286 | 310 | 596 | 85 | 276 | 16 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 387 | 367 | 87 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 62 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 237 | 273 | 313 | 586 | 76 | 274 | 16 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 245 | 229 | 55 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 38 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 240 | 285 | 293 | 578 | 52 | 275 | 16 | 4 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 357 | 343 | 94 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 274 | 299 | 347 | 646 | 73 | 321 | 16 | 3 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 175 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 234 | 240 | 269 | 509 | 34 | 269 | 16 | 1 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 224 | 215 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 177 | 205 | 270 | 474 | 93 | 202 | 18 | 2 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 119 | 113 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 177 | 216 | 212 | 428 | 35 | 245 | 29 | 2 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1590 | 1504 | 351 | 66 | 4 | 9 | 49 | 275 | 13 | 17 | 14 | 233 | 264 | 301 | 564 | 67 | 278 | 17 | 3 | 234 | 44 | -105 | -2 | +0 | +28 | +34 | -4.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 615 | 144 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 112 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 234 | 264 | 304 | 568 | 70 | 278 | 17 | 3 | 234 | 44 | -43 | -1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 96 PAwOBA .217 → .179 (−38)K% 25.0% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.12% | ÷0.997 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 2.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.62% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×0.958 | 22.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.62% | ÷1.158 | ×0.860 | ×0.988 | ×0.958 | 3.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 132, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .217 → .179; ISO .034 → .023; BABIP .288 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 23 PAwOBA .248 → .223 (−24)K% 17.4% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.39% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.70% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 8.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 11.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 10.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.038 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 91, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .248 → .223; ISO .095 → .083; BABIP .235 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Salem Red Sox · 72 PAwOBA .256 → .206 (−51)K% 12.5% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.960 | ×1.420 | — | — | 18.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.78% | ÷0.939 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.948 | 1.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.948 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷1.066 | ×0.940 | ×1.043 | ×0.948 | 15.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.17% | ÷1.102 | ×0.830 | ×1.043 | ×0.948 | 3.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | ×1.043 | ×0.948 | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.936 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.948 | 1.57% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 113, 2B 120, 3B 107, K 92, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .256 → .206; ISO .119 → .095; BABIP .241 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 122 PAwOBA .231 → .207 (−24)K% 15.6% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.57% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.64% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 1.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.76% | ÷0.984 | ×0.970 | ×1.029 | ×0.978 | 23.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.97% | ÷1.085 | ×0.860 | ×1.029 | ×0.978 | 2.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.950 | ×1.029 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.020 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.74% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 117, 3B 102, K 95, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .231 → .207; ISO .050 → .037; BABIP .270 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 57 PAwOBA .266 → .241 (−24)K% 7.0% → 8.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.02% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 8.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.75% | ÷0.937 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 1.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.85% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | ×0.987 | ×1.003 | 26.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×1.003 | 1.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 100, K 97, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .266 → .241; ISO .018 → .015; BABIP .308 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 357 PAwOBA .325 → .287 (−38)K% 13.2% → 16.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.17% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.92% | ÷1.050 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 2.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.83% | ÷1.040 | ×0.970 | ×1.032 | ×0.988 | 25.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.67% | ÷0.997 | ×0.860 | ×1.032 | ×0.988 | 6.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.950 | ×1.032 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.371 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.78% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 108, 2B 99, 3B 106, K 97, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .325 → .287; ISO .102 → .078; BABIP .345 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Salem Red Sox · 186 PAwOBA .295 → .247 (−48)K% 11.3% → 16.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.29% | ÷0.960 | ×1.420 | — | — | 16.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.60% | ÷1.036 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 5.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.61% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.78% | ÷1.026 | ×0.940 | ×1.026 | ×0.978 | 21.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.29% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×0.978 | 5.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.026 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.841 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 105, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .295 → .247; ISO .055 → .047; BABIP .297 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 59 PAwOBA .284 → .269 (−15)K% 10.2% → 12.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.17% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.08% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 27.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 1.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.57% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 94, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .284 → .269; ISO .071 → .057; BABIP .286 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .