Michael Reed
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 26 | AAAOAK | 115 | .247/.351/.351 | 1 | 3 | 49 | — | .194/.272/.282 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA/AA/ROK2 orgs | 165 | .247/.307/.333 | 2 | 12 | 41 | — | .209/.258/.268 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAAMIL | 132 | .204/.313/.372 | 4 | 5 | 44 | — | .161/.244/.280 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 347 | 316 | 74 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 97 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 234 | 292 | 396 | 687 | 161 | 315 | 28 | 7 | 301 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | INTL | Canberra Cavalry | — | 147 | 138 | 45 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 326 | 363 | 659 | 1.022 | 333 | 365 | 22 | 5 | 435 | 181 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 195 | 179 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 63 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 179 | 230 | 235 | 465 | 56 | 263 | 32 | 6 | 211 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 343 | 315 | 102 | 21 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 84 | 1 | 33 | 7 | 324 | 374 | 549 | 923 | 225 | 407 | 24 | 7 | 399 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 73 | 66 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 333 | 397 | 485 | 882 | 152 | 404 | 18 | 10 | 391 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 441 | 381 | 87 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 126 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 228 | 314 | 388 | 702 | 160 | 294 | 29 | 10 | 308 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 115 | 97 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 247 | 351 | 351 | 701 | 103 | 418 | 36 | 13 | 319 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 56 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 255 | 196 | 451 | 286 | 29 | 7 | 211 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 93 | 84 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 274 | 337 | 417 | 754 | 143 | 404 | 32 | 9 | 334 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 16 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 267 | 312 | 333 | 646 | 67 | 333 | 19 | 6 | 294 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 132 | 113 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 42 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 204 | 313 | 372 | 685 | 168 | 284 | 32 | 13 | 309 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 347 | 326 | 55 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 136 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 169 | 210 | 273 | 483 | 104 | 264 | 39 | 4 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 195 | 183 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 77 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 137 | 173 | 180 | 353 | 44 | 219 | 39 | 4 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 343 | 323 | 82 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 117 | 1 | 33 | 7 | 254 | 291 | 443 | 734 | 189 | 352 | 34 | 5 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 441 | 398 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 161 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 173 | 235 | 271 | 506 | 98 | 243 | 37 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 115 | 103 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 49 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 194 | 272 | 282 | 553 | 87 | 347 | 43 | 9 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 56 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 173 | 218 | 173 | 391 | 268 | 34 | 5 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 93 | 86 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 233 | 283 | 326 | 608 | 93 | 379 | 41 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 267 | 517 | 67 | 248 | 25 | 6 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 132 | 118 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 52 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 161 | 244 | 280 | 524 | 119 | 248 | 39 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 494 | 465 | 79 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 194 | 4 | 17 | 9 | 170 | 211 | 280 | 490 | 110 | 272 | 39 | 4 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 494 | 454 | 119 | 25 | 12 | 16 | 30 | 129 | 4 | 17 | 9 | 262 | 313 | 476 | 789 | 214 | 330 | 26 | 6 | 341 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 611 | 576 | 123 | 23 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 219 | 1 | 56 | 11 | 214 | 250 | 352 | 602 | 139 | 311 | 36 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 611 | 560 | 156 | 33 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 160 | 1 | 56 | 11 | 279 | 331 | 441 | 772 | 162 | 363 | 26 | 7 | 338 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 441 | 398 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 161 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 173 | 235 | 271 | 506 | 98 | 258 | 37 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 441 | 381 | 87 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 126 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 228 | 314 | 388 | 702 | 160 | 294 | 29 | 10 | 308 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 115 | 103 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 49 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 194 | 272 | 282 | 553 | 87 | 358 | 43 | 9 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 115 | 97 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 247 | 351 | 351 | 701 | 103 | 418 | 36 | 13 | 319 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 165 | 154 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 61 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 201 | 245 | 253 | 499 | 52 | 326 | 37 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 165 | 150 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 49 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 247 | 307 | 333 | 640 | 87 | 354 | 30 | 8 | 288 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 132 | 118 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 52 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 161 | 244 | 280 | 524 | 119 | 254 | 39 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 132 | 113 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 42 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 204 | 313 | 372 | 685 | 168 | 284 | 32 | 13 | 309 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 494 | 467 | 79 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 194 | 4 | 17 | 9 | 169 | 211 | 278 | 489 | 109 | 264 | 39 | 4 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 611 | 578 | 123 | 23 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 219 | 1 | 56 | 11 | 213 | 250 | 351 | 601 | 138 | 304 | 36 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 441 | 406 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 161 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 170 | 235 | 266 | 501 | 96 | 243 | 37 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 115 | 103 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 49 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 194 | 272 | 282 | 553 | 87 | 347 | 43 | 9 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 165 | 155 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 61 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 200 | 245 | 252 | 497 | 52 | 329 | 37 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 132 | 118 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 52 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 161 | 244 | 280 | 524 | 119 | 248 | 39 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1958 | 1814 | 341 | 65 | 17 | 34 | 104 | 736 | 13 | 116 | 32 | 188 | 237 | 299 | 536 | 111 | 290 | 38 | 5 | 233 | 44 | -131 | +10 | +0 | -12 | +42 | -9.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 114 | 22 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 244 | 4 | 39 | 11 | 189 | 239 | 301 | 539 | 111 | 293 | 38 | 5 | 233 | 44 | -43 | +3 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -3.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAANashville Sounds · 132 PAwOBA .301 → .233 (−68)K% 31.8% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.82% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.88% | ÷0.995 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.90% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×0.959 | ×0.992 | 15.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.86% | ÷0.971 | ×0.830 | ×0.959 | ×0.992 | 8.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.959 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.63% | ÷0.905 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 4.32% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 96, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .301 → .233; ISO .168 → .126; BABIP .284 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AATulsa Drillers · 93 PAwOBA .325 → .264 (−60)K% 32.3% → 40.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.26% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.60% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷0.953 | ×0.920 | ×1.043 | ×0.978 | 27.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.006 | ×0.840 | ×1.043 | ×0.978 | 9.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.043 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.92% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .325 → .264; ISO .143 → .108; BABIP .404 → .379. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 56 PAwOBA .206 → .178 (−28)K% 28.6% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 26.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.075 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .206 → .178; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .286 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Dodgers · 16 PAwOBA .286 → .192 (−94)K% 18.8% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷0.973 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 3.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 18.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.931 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 6.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 106, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .286 → .192; ISO .067 → .045; BABIP .333 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 115 PAwOBA .312 → .240 (−72)K% 35.7% → 43.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.65% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 43.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.083 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.36% | ÷1.156 | ×0.930 | ×1.006 | ×1.018 | 25.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.93% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×1.018 | 7.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.956 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×1.018 | 1.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.941 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.35% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 131, 2B 104, 3B 91, K 99, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .312 → .240; ISO .103 → .085; BABIP .418 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 441 PAwOBA .302 → .224 (−78)K% 28.6% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.62% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.96% | ÷1.014 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 19.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.097 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.079 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.49% | ÷1.337 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.33% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 167, 1B 103, 2B 119, 3B 116, K 91, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .302 → .224; ISO .160 → .102; BABIP .294 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 343 PAwOBA .390 → .312 (−78)K% 24.5% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.49% | ÷0.966 | ×1.340 | — | — | 33.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.00% | ÷1.087 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.29% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.84% | ÷1.020 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 23.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.038 | ×0.820 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 7.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.03% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 2.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.19% | ÷0.839 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 5.69% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 104, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 93, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .390 → .312; ISO .225 → .195; BABIP .407 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AASan Antonio Missions · 195 PAwOBA .209 → .162 (−47)K% 32.3% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.31% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.15% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.69% | ÷1.072 | ×0.920 | ×0.967 | ×1.027 | 17.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.03% | ÷1.081 | ×0.840 | ×0.967 | ×1.027 | 4.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.940 | ×0.967 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.86% | ÷0.824 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.86% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 114, 2B 116, 3B 106, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .209 → .162; ISO .056 → .044; BABIP .263 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).