Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 25 | 18 | 108 | 475 | 79 | 30 | 10 | 72% | 4.3 | 12.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 4.68 | 4.43 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 25 | 18 | 108 | 475 | 79 | 30 | 10 | 72% | 4.3 | 16.6% | 6.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | 4.68 | 3.68 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 6 | 65 | 290 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 21% | 2.3 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.29 | 5.18 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 6 | 65 | 290 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 21% | 2.3 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 3.97 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 1 | 64 | 258 | 70 | 21 | 5 | 2% | 1.5 | 21.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 2.0% | 2.95 | 3.75 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 1 | 64 | 258 | 70 | 21 | 5 | 2% | 1.5 | 27.1% | 8.1% | 19.0% | 1.9% | 2.95 | 2.91 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 5 | 75 | 327 | 85 | 30 | 6 | 12% | 1.8 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 4.78 | 3.67 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 5 | 75 | 327 | 85 | 30 | 6 | 12% | 1.8 | 26.0% | 9.2% | 16.8% | 1.8% | 4.78 | 3.07 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0.7 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 81.00 | 31.07 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0.7 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 81.00 | 82.60 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 42 | 190 | 48 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 6.17 | 3.97 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 42 | 190 | 48 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 10.5% | 14.7% | 2.6% | 6.17 | 3.79 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 21 | 0 | 22 | 98 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 9.6% | 16.4% | 1.2% | 4.91 | 2.76 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 21 | 0 | 22 | 98 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.6% | 9.2% | 20.4% | 1.0% | 4.91 | 2.28 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 25 | 116 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.3% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 6.20 | 5.29 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 25 | 116 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 6.20 | 4.11 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.6% | 14.1% | 4.5% | 11.6% | 13.68 | 9.71 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 216 | 0 | 200 | 1031 | 192 | 144 | 120 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.6% | 14.1% | 4.5% | 11.6% | 13.68 | 9.71 | -10.1 | ||
| Career | — | 215 | 30 | 401 | 1762 | 313 | 169 | 49 | 14% | 1.9 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.35 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 107 | 15 | 200 | 878 | 156 | 84 | 25 | 14% | 1.9 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Roel Ramírez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.62 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 20 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 72 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 71 |
| Jeremy Jeffress R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.60 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 2.3% | .312 | 3.66 | 19.3% | 6.8% | 23 | +0.06 | 2.52 | 343 | 69 |
| Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 3.7% | .257 | 5.52 | 23.7% | 14.4% | 20 | +1.00 | 2.37 | 318 | 69 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2029 · 3.32 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.32 | 22.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .242 | 3.84 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 65 | +0.52 | 3.32 | 132 | 69 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 68 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 68 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 67 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 28.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.84 | 28.4% | 21.3% | 195 | +0.48 | 2.61 | 339 | 67 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 66 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 66 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.22 | 24.4% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .269 | 4.81 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 92 | +1.59 | 1.60 | 312 | 65 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 65 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 65 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.24 | 27.9% | 7.4% | 4.7% | .248 | 4.79 | 24.8% | 18.8% | 66 | +0.55 | 2.54 | 279 | 65 |
| Brandon Workman R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .429 | 4.92 | 18.4% | 4.4% | 28 | +0.26 | 2.04 | 269 | 64 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 64 |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 64 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 64 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 63 |