Jordan Patterson
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 25 | AAACOL | 542 | .283/.351/.539 | 26 | 3 | 75 | — | .208/.267/.372 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAACOL | 480 | .271/.369/.525 | 26 | 6 | 79 | — | .199/.281/.362 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 456 | .245/.319/.439 | 18 | 3 | 69 | — | .183/.246/.332 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 21 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 249 | 206 | 60 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 37 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 291 | 394 | 495 | 889 | 204 | 309 | 15 | 8 | 384 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 532 | 453 | 126 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 46 | 118 | 17 | 25 | 8 | 278 | 366 | 430 | 797 | 152 | 338 | 22 | 9 | 348 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 202 | 185 | 53 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 286 | 343 | 503 | 846 | 216 | 336 | 21 | 5 | 370 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 339 | 303 | 92 | 26 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 88 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 304 | 378 | 568 | 945 | 264 | 400 | 26 | 6 | 410 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 63 | 51 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 157 | 317 | 196 | 514 | 39 | 242 | 29 | 14 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 19 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 444 | 474 | 500 | 974 | 56 | 471 | 5 | 5 | 438 | 174 | +2 | -0 | -1 | -9 | +0 | -0.8 |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 495 | 427 | 125 | 24 | 7 | 14 | 47 | 118 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 293 | 380 | 480 | 860 | 187 | 370 | 24 | 9 | 376 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 542 | 484 | 137 | 32 | 7 | 26 | 36 | 128 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 283 | 351 | 539 | 891 | 256 | 330 | 24 | 7 | 383 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 480 | 413 | 112 | 23 | 2 | 26 | 42 | 128 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 271 | 369 | 525 | 894 | 254 | 328 | 27 | 9 | 391 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 401 | 359 | 84 | 19 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 129 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 309 | 432 | 741 | 198 | 316 | 32 | 6 | 327 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 55 | 49 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 327 | 389 | 490 | 879 | 163 | 467 | 33 | 5 | 385 | 146 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 19 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 444 | 474 | 500 | 974 | 56 | 471 | 5 | 5 | 438 | 182 | +2 | -0 | -1 | -9 | +0 | -0.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 21 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 249 | 214 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 53 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 224 | 311 | 379 | 690 | 154 | 238 | 21 | 4 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 532 | 470 | 99 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 162 | 17 | 25 | 8 | 211 | 281 | 300 | 581 | 89 | 278 | 30 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA MLE | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 202 | 188 | 47 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 53 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 250 | 299 | 415 | 713 | 165 | 318 | 26 | 4 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 339 | 309 | 74 | 20 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 113 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 239 | 307 | 447 | 753 | 207 | 339 | 33 | 4 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 19 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 444 | 474 | 500 | 974 | 56 | 471 | 5 | 5 | 426 | 174 | +2 | -0 | -1 | -9 | +0 | -0.8 |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 495 | 442 | 102 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 160 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 231 | 302 | 355 | 657 | 124 | 325 | 32 | 6 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 542 | 495 | 103 | 23 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 173 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 208 | 267 | 372 | 639 | 164 | 273 | 32 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 480 | 428 | 85 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 27 | 169 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 199 | 281 | 362 | 643 | 164 | 275 | 35 | 6 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 401 | 367 | 67 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 160 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 183 | 246 | 332 | 579 | 150 | 276 | 40 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 249 | 214 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 53 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 224 | 311 | 379 | 690 | 154 | 256 | 21 | 4 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | ROK RAW | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 249 | 206 | 60 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 37 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 291 | 394 | 495 | 889 | 204 | 309 | 15 | 8 | 384 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 532 | 470 | 99 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 162 | 17 | 25 | 8 | 211 | 281 | 300 | 581 | 89 | 294 | 30 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 532 | 453 | 126 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 46 | 118 | 17 | 25 | 8 | 278 | 366 | 430 | 797 | 152 | 338 | 22 | 9 | 348 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 604 | 554 | 136 | 41 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 185 | 25 | 19 | 11 | 245 | 307 | 440 | 747 | 195 | 337 | 31 | 4 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 604 | 539 | 153 | 47 | 12 | 17 | 39 | 148 | 25 | 19 | 11 | 284 | 360 | 510 | 870 | 226 | 363 | 25 | 6 | 381 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 460 | 109 | 19 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 161 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 237 | 306 | 359 | 665 | 122 | 339 | 31 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 514 | 445 | 133 | 25 | 7 | 14 | 48 | 119 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 299 | 383 | 481 | 864 | 182 | 375 | 23 | 9 | 378 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 542 | 495 | 103 | 23 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 173 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 208 | 267 | 372 | 639 | 164 | 279 | 32 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA RAW | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 542 | 484 | 137 | 32 | 7 | 26 | 36 | 128 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 283 | 351 | 539 | 891 | 256 | 330 | 24 | 7 | 383 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 480 | 428 | 85 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 27 | 169 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 199 | 281 | 362 | 643 | 164 | 280 | 35 | 6 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA RAW | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 480 | 413 | 112 | 23 | 2 | 26 | 42 | 128 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 271 | 369 | 525 | 894 | 254 | 328 | 27 | 9 | 391 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 456 | 417 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 182 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 185 | 248 | 336 | 584 | 151 | 283 | 40 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 456 | 408 | 100 | 21 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 147 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 245 | 319 | 439 | 757 | 194 | 335 | 32 | 6 | 334 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 249 | 220 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 53 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 218 | 311 | 368 | 679 | 150 | 238 | 21 | 4 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 532 | 481 | 99 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 162 | 17 | 25 | 8 | 206 | 281 | 293 | 574 | 87 | 278 | 30 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 604 | 550 | 136 | 41 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 185 | 25 | 19 | 11 | 247 | 307 | 444 | 750 | 196 | 331 | 31 | 4 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 463 | 109 | 19 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 161 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 235 | 306 | 356 | 663 | 121 | 330 | 31 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 542 | 497 | 103 | 23 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 173 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 207 | 267 | 370 | 638 | 163 | 273 | 32 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 480 | 428 | 85 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 27 | 169 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 199 | 281 | 362 | 643 | 164 | 275 | 35 | 6 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 456 | 418 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 182 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 184 | 248 | 335 | 583 | 151 | 276 | 40 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 19 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 444 | 474 | 500 | 974 | 56 | 471 | 5 | 5 | 438 | 77 | +2 | -0 | -1 | -9 | +0 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 616 | 273 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 443 | 472 | 498 | 971 | 55 | 469 | 5 | 5 | 438 | 77 | +64 | -14 | -26 | -314 | +14 | -28.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3377 | 3038 | 657 | 145 | 22 | 88 | 167 | 1085 | 125 | 76 | 34 | 216 | 285 | 365 | 650 | 149 | 300 | 32 | 5 | 282 | 77 | +2 | -0 | -1 | -9 | +0 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 126 | 28 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 209 | 24 | 15 | 7 | 215 | 284 | 364 | 648 | 149 | 299 | 32 | 5 | 282 | 77 | +64 | -14 | -26 | -314 | +14 | -28.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAABuffalo Bisons · 401 PAwOBA .317 → .254 (−63)K% 32.2% → 39.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.17% | ÷0.968 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.49% | ÷0.953 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 3.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.43% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | ×0.968 | ×1.003 | 18.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.26% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×1.003 | 6.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷0.909 | ×0.970 | ×0.968 | ×1.003 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 5.86% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 94, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .317 → .254; ISO .198 → .155; BABIP .316 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 480 PAwOBA .380 → .285 (−95)K% 26.7% → 35.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷0.978 | ×1.290 | — | — | 35.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.12% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 5.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.58% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 4.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.40% | ÷1.034 | ×0.900 | ×0.987 | ×1.018 | 18.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.07% | ÷0.960 | ×0.810 | ×0.987 | ×1.018 | 6.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | ×0.987 | ×1.018 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.12% | ÷1.162 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 6.23% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 95, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .380 → .285; ISO .254 → .169; BABIP .328 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 542 PAwOBA .376 → .279 (−97)K% 23.6% → 31.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.62% | ÷0.956 | ×1.290 | — | — | 31.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.27% | ÷0.996 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 4.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.77% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 2.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.22% | ÷1.019 | ×0.900 | ×0.978 | ×1.033 | 18.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.99% | ÷1.045 | ×0.810 | ×0.978 | ×1.033 | 7.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.97% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.978 | ×1.033 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.30% | ÷1.202 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 4.90% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 104, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .376 → .279; ISO .256 → .167; BABIP .330 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 495 PAwOBA .369 → .289 (−80)K% 23.8% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.84% | ÷0.948 | ×1.290 | — | — | 32.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.29% | ÷1.083 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 6.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 2.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.89% | ÷1.032 | ×0.900 | ×1.015 | ×1.048 | 24.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.77% | ÷1.050 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×1.048 | 6.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×1.048 | 1.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.53% | ÷1.202 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 3.08% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 106, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .369 → .289; ISO .187 → .129; BABIP .370 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Modesto Nuts · 339 PAwOBA .399 → .320 (−79)K% 26.0% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.96% | ÷1.046 | ×1.340 | — | — | 33.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.60% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 3.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.01% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 3.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.47% | ÷1.014 | ×0.910 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 18.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.09% | ÷0.963 | ×0.820 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 10.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.58% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 3.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.65% | ÷0.827 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 5.17% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 109, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .399 → .320; ISO .264 → .218; BABIP .400 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AANew Britain Rock Cats · 202 PAwOBA .361 → .306 (−55)K% 20.8% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.79% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.45% | ÷0.935 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.48% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 2.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.88% | ÷1.024 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | ×1.027 | 18.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.29% | ÷1.016 | ×0.860 | ×1.033 | ×1.027 | 11.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.90% | ÷1.133 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.46% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 95, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .361 → .306; ISO .216 → .165; BABIP .336 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAsheville Tourists · 532 PAwOBA .344 → .256 (−88)K% 22.2% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.18% | ÷0.978 | ×1.340 | — | — | 30.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.27% | ÷0.984 | ×0.660 | — | — | 5.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.20% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 2.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.37% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.960 | — | 22.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.06% | ÷1.135 | ×0.820 | ×0.960 | — | 5.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.960 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.18% | ÷1.390 | ×0.820 | — | — | 2.47% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 178, 1B 100, 2B 127, 3B 80, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .344 → .256; ISO .152 → .094; BABIP .338 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ROKGrand Junction Rockies · 249 PAwOBA .378 → .283 (−95)K% 14.9% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.86% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.985 | 4.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.43% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 4.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.000 | ×0.985 | 18.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.000 | ×0.985 | 5.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.000 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.985 | 4.37% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .378 → .283; ISO .204 → .152; BABIP .309 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .