Arden Pabst
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 26 | AAPIT | 214 | .194/.221/.330 | 7 | 0 | 6 | — | .144/.164/.240 |
| 2022 | 27 | AA/ROK2 orgs | 71 | .230/.329/.508 | 5 | 1 | 60 | — | .168/.242/.383 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA/AA/A+3 orgs | 145 | .124/.264/.240 | 4 | 0 | 16 | — | .113/.208/.225 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A | West Virginia Power | — | 258 | 231 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 242 | 303 | 346 | 649 | 104 | 289 | 19 | 7 | 287 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 63 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 193 | 258 | 333 | 591 | 140 | 225 | 24 | 8 | 263 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | — | 184 | 171 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 281 | 320 | 515 | 835 | 234 | 290 | 15 | 5 | 358 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 270 | 250 | 48 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 73 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 192 | 235 | 308 | 543 | 116 | 250 | 27 | 4 | 238 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 214 | 206 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 221 | 330 | 551 | 136 | 260 | 34 | 3 | 243 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 28 | 27 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 296 | 321 | 593 | 914 | 296 | 375 | 32 | 4 | 395 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | ROK | FCL Braves | — | 43 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 333 | 441 | 775 | 265 | 136 | 23 | 14 | 340 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 400 | 600 | 800 | 1.400 | 400 | 375 | 7 | 33 | 578 | 211 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 101 | 85 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 129 | 260 | 247 | 507 | 118 | 167 | 35 | 13 | 242 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | A+ | Rome Braves | — | 29 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 103 | 45 | 10 | 72 | -87 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 258 | 238 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 69 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 193 | 235 | 269 | 504 | 76 | 243 | 27 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 63 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 242 | 328 | 570 | 138 | 215 | 29 | 6 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 184 | 173 | 40 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 231 | 265 | 416 | 681 | 185 | 254 | 21 | 4 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 270 | 255 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 93 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 157 | 186 | 251 | 437 | 94 | 221 | 34 | 2 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 214 | 208 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 164 | 240 | 405 | 96 | 218 | 42 | 2 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 28 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 286 | 556 | 841 | 296 | 322 | 39 | 4 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 43 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 108 | 214 | 270 | 485 | 162 | 103 | 33 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 15 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 467 | 667 | 1.133 | 333 | 336 | 7 | 20 | 480 | 211 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 101 | 89 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 112 | 210 | 225 | 435 | 112 | 139 | 41 | 9 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | A+ MLE | Rome Braves | — | 29 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 69 | 59 | 7 | 39 | -87 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 258 | 238 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 69 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 193 | 235 | 269 | 504 | 76 | 254 | 27 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A RAW | West Virginia Power | — | 258 | 231 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 242 | 303 | 346 | 649 | 104 | 289 | 19 | 7 | 287 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 247 | 231 | 51 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 259 | 394 | 653 | 173 | 256 | 23 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 247 | 228 | 59 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 42 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 259 | 305 | 469 | 774 | 211 | 275 | 17 | 6 | 333 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 270 | 255 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 93 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 157 | 186 | 251 | 437 | 94 | 224 | 34 | 2 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | Altoona Curve | — | 270 | 250 | 48 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 73 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 192 | 235 | 308 | 543 | 116 | 250 | 27 | 4 | 238 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 214 | 208 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 164 | 240 | 405 | 96 | 219 | 42 | 2 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA RAW | Altoona Curve | — | 214 | 206 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 221 | 330 | 551 | 136 | 260 | 34 | 3 | 243 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 71 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 257 | 406 | 663 | 219 | 222 | 35 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 71 | 61 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 329 | 508 | 837 | 279 | 237 | 27 | 10 | 361 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 145 | 128 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 60 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 109 | 208 | 219 | 427 | 109 | 154 | 41 | 10 | 191 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 145 | 121 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 124 | 264 | 240 | 504 | 116 | 159 | 34 | 14 | 242 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 258 | 243 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 69 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 189 | 235 | 263 | 498 | 74 | 243 | 27 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 247 | 233 | 51 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 259 | 391 | 650 | 172 | 244 | 23 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 270 | 259 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 93 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 154 | 186 | 247 | 433 | 93 | 221 | 34 | 2 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 214 | 207 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 164 | 242 | 406 | 97 | 218 | 42 | 2 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 71 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 257 | 400 | 657 | 215 | 189 | 35 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 145 | 128 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 60 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 109 | 208 | 219 | 427 | 109 | 132 | 41 | 10 | 191 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1205 | 1124 | 193 | 38 | 4 | 28 | 52 | 394 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 172 | 214 | 287 | 502 | 116 | 231 | 33 | 4 | 216 | 33 | -97 | -2 | +0 | +22 | +26 | -5.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 606 | 103 | 20 | 2 | 15 | 28 | 213 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 170 | 213 | 284 | 497 | 114 | 229 | 33 | 4 | 216 | 33 | -52 | -1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -2.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAMississippi Braves · 101 PAwOBA .238 → .192 (−46)K% 34.7% → 40.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.65% | ÷1.034 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.87% | ÷0.943 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 8.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.98% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 1.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 11.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 1.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.00% | ÷0.793 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 5.86% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 59, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 107, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .238 → .192; ISO .118 → .111; BABIP .167 → .139. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Rome Braves · 29 PAwOBA .071 → .039 (−33)K% 44.8% → 59.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 44.83% | ÷0.985 | ×1.310 | — | — | 59.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.045 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.948 | 5.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.087 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.022 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 95, 2B 99, 3B 117, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .071 → .039; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 15 PAwOBA .564 → .480 (−84)K% 6.7% → 8.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.005 | ×1.200 | — | — | 7.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 22.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 21.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 9.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 7.84% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 100, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .564 → .480; ISO .400 → .346; BABIP .375 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Braves · 43 PAwOBA .339 → .231 (−108)K% 23.3% → 31.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.26% | ÷1.050 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.95% | ÷1.007 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 8.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.65% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 3.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.980 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 9.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.120 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.066 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 8.59% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 96, 2B 124, 3B 103, K 110, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .339 → .231; ISO .265 → .185; BABIP .136 → .103. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAMississippi Braves · 28 PAwOBA .382 → .297 (−86)K% 32.1% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.57% | ÷0.985 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 2.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 19.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 9.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.927 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 9.38% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 104, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .382 → .297; ISO .296 → .228; BABIP .375 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAltoona Curve · 214 PAwOBA .237 → .177 (−60)K% 34.1% → 41.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.11% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.27% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 2.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.55% | ÷1.042 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 16.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.948 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 4.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.947 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.28% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 108, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .237 → .177; ISO .136 → .101; BABIP .260 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAltoona Curve · 270 PAwOBA .229 → .193 (−37)K% 27.0% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.04% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.96% | ÷0.958 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 2.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.11% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.95% | ÷1.009 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 15.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.21% | ÷1.038 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.26% | ÷0.783 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.28% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 92, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .229 → .193; ISO .116 → .098; BABIP .250 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Bradenton Marauders · 184 PAwOBA .351 → .288 (−63)K% 14.7% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.67% | ÷0.986 | ×1.420 | — | — | 21.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.43% | ÷0.971 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 4.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | 16.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.058 | ×0.960 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | 7.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | 1.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.066 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 4.58% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 100, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .351 → .288; ISO .234 → .189; BABIP .290 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).