Thomas Milone
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | AA/A+2 orgs | 329 | .281/.357/.427 | 4 | 18 | 78 | — | .236/.295/.360 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 361 | .280/.376/.450 | 10 | 15 | 90 | — | .245/.315/.378 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA/AASD | 470 | .252/.348/.395 | 9 | 15 | 65 | — | .206/.280/.317 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | GCL Rays | — | 153 | 142 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 38 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 190 | 243 | 261 | 504 | 70 | 260 | 25 | 5 | 230 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK | Princeton Rays | — | 266 | 233 | 62 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 61 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 266 | 350 | 378 | 727 | 112 | 351 | 23 | 11 | 327 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 526 | 472 | 117 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 39 | 93 | 8 | 26 | 14 | 248 | 316 | 324 | 640 | 76 | 302 | 18 | 7 | 290 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 408 | 355 | 73 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 36 | 98 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 206 | 293 | 282 | 575 | 76 | 275 | 24 | 9 | 263 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | INTL | Brisbane Bandits | — | 129 | 114 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 246 | 333 | 395 | 728 | 149 | 286 | 16 | 11 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 240 | 215 | 52 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 242 | 312 | 330 | 642 | 88 | 298 | 19 | 9 | 290 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 399 | 365 | 93 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 25 | 102 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 255 | 313 | 378 | 691 | 123 | 344 | 26 | 6 | 308 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 96 | 84 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 214 | 312 | 286 | 598 | 71 | 266 | 20 | 12 | 281 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 233 | 204 | 63 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 20 | 42 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 309 | 376 | 485 | 861 | 176 | 368 | 18 | 9 | 368 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 150 | 137 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 41 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 285 | 347 | 445 | 792 | 161 | 380 | 27 | 7 | 353 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 211 | 174 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 54 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 276 | 397 | 454 | 851 | 178 | 362 | 26 | 16 | 378 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 200 | 170 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 67 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 229 | 342 | 371 | 712 | 141 | 360 | 34 | 14 | 323 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 270 | 235 | 63 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 68 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 268 | 353 | 413 | 766 | 145 | 352 | 25 | 10 | 340 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 153 | 145 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 55 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 138 | 178 | 186 | 364 | 48 | 222 | 36 | 3 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 266 | 243 | 49 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 87 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 202 | 262 | 276 | 538 | 74 | 301 | 33 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 526 | 486 | 107 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 130 | 8 | 26 | 14 | 220 | 270 | 280 | 550 | 60 | 288 | 25 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 408 | 364 | 59 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 143 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 162 | 236 | 209 | 444 | 47 | 250 | 35 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 240 | 219 | 46 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 63 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 210 | 270 | 292 | 562 | 82 | 279 | 26 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 399 | 373 | 89 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 118 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 239 | 283 | 343 | 626 | 105 | 339 | 30 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 96 | 87 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 195 | 271 | 264 | 535 | 69 | 256 | 25 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 233 | 210 | 53 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 252 | 305 | 400 | 705 | 148 | 315 | 25 | 6 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 150 | 140 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 50 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 250 | 300 | 357 | 657 | 107 | 370 | 33 | 5 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 211 | 186 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 64 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 242 | 325 | 392 | 718 | 151 | 330 | 30 | 10 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 200 | 179 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 84 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 173 | 256 | 274 | 530 | 101 | 313 | 42 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 270 | 243 | 56 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 82 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 230 | 297 | 350 | 647 | 119 | 318 | 30 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 153 | 145 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 55 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 138 | 178 | 186 | 364 | 48 | 222 | 36 | 3 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Rays | — | 153 | 142 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 38 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 190 | 243 | 261 | 504 | 70 | 260 | 25 | 5 | 230 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 266 | 243 | 49 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 87 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 202 | 262 | 276 | 538 | 74 | 308 | 33 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK RAW | Princeton Rays | — | 266 | 233 | 62 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 61 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 266 | 350 | 378 | 727 | 112 | 351 | 23 | 11 | 327 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 526 | 486 | 107 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 130 | 8 | 26 | 14 | 220 | 270 | 280 | 550 | 60 | 295 | 25 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 526 | 472 | 117 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 39 | 93 | 8 | 26 | 14 | 248 | 316 | 324 | 640 | 76 | 302 | 18 | 7 | 290 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 484 | 78 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 188 | 9 | 16 | 14 | 161 | 231 | 211 | 442 | 50 | 256 | 35 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 537 | 469 | 101 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 50 | 119 | 9 | 16 | 14 | 215 | 303 | 309 | 612 | 94 | 278 | 22 | 9 | 278 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 240 | 219 | 46 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 63 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 210 | 270 | 292 | 562 | 82 | 287 | 26 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 240 | 215 | 52 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 242 | 312 | 330 | 642 | 88 | 298 | 19 | 9 | 290 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 399 | 373 | 89 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 118 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 239 | 283 | 343 | 626 | 105 | 341 | 30 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 399 | 365 | 93 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 25 | 102 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 255 | 313 | 378 | 691 | 123 | 344 | 26 | 6 | 308 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 329 | 297 | 71 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 81 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 239 | 298 | 364 | 662 | 125 | 310 | 25 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 329 | 288 | 81 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 32 | 61 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 281 | 357 | 427 | 784 | 146 | 339 | 19 | 10 | 343 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 361 | 326 | 80 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 114 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 245 | 315 | 377 | 692 | 132 | 353 | 32 | 8 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 361 | 311 | 87 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 45 | 95 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 280 | 376 | 450 | 826 | 170 | 370 | 26 | 12 | 367 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 470 | 422 | 87 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 166 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 206 | 280 | 313 | 592 | 107 | 320 | 35 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 470 | 405 | 102 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 54 | 135 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 252 | 348 | 395 | 743 | 143 | 355 | 29 | 11 | 333 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 153 | 145 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 55 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 138 | 178 | 186 | 364 | 48 | 222 | 36 | 3 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 266 | 244 | 49 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 87 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 201 | 262 | 275 | 537 | 74 | 301 | 33 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 526 | 488 | 107 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 130 | 8 | 26 | 14 | 219 | 270 | 279 | 548 | 59 | 288 | 25 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 488 | 78 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 188 | 9 | 16 | 14 | 160 | 231 | 209 | 440 | 49 | 250 | 35 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 240 | 220 | 46 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 63 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 209 | 270 | 291 | 561 | 82 | 279 | 26 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 399 | 373 | 89 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 118 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 239 | 283 | 343 | 626 | 105 | 339 | 30 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 329 | 301 | 71 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 81 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 236 | 298 | 359 | 657 | 123 | 298 | 25 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 361 | 325 | 80 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 114 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 246 | 315 | 378 | 693 | 132 | 347 | 32 | 8 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 470 | 424 | 87 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 166 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 205 | 280 | 311 | 591 | 106 | 316 | 35 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3281 | 2995 | 627 | 95 | 42 | 27 | 206 | 1002 | 40 | 119 | 67 | 209 | 269 | 296 | 566 | 87 | 303 | 31 | 6 | 250 | 55 | -174 | -3 | +0 | +12 | +71 | -9.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 124 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 41 | 199 | 8 | 24 | 13 | 209 | 269 | 293 | 563 | 84 | 304 | 31 | 6 | 250 | 55 | -34 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AASan Antonio Missions · 270 PAwOBA .333 → .283 (−49)K% 25.2% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.19% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.63% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.35% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×0.978 | 24.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.99% | ÷1.035 | ×0.840 | ×1.014 | ×0.978 | 4.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.035 | ×0.940 | ×1.014 | ×0.978 | 1.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.59% | ÷0.870 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 3.23% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 107, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .333 → .283; ISO .145 → .125; BABIP .352 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 200 PAwOBA .314 → .238 (−75)K% 33.5% → 41.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.50% | ÷0.959 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.50% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 9.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.30% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×1.023 | ×1.003 | 21.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.74% | ÷1.133 | ×0.830 | ×1.023 | ×1.003 | 6.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.91% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×1.023 | ×1.003 | 2.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.91% | ÷1.138 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.80% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 109, 2B 127, 3B 100, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .314 → .238; ISO .141 → .101; BABIP .360 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASomerset Patriots · 211 PAwOBA .371 → .310 (−61)K% 25.6% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.59% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.64% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 10.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.83% | ÷1.008 | ×0.940 | ×0.990 | ×0.988 | 23.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷0.905 | ×0.870 | ×0.990 | ×0.988 | 7.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×0.988 | 1.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.053 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 3.66% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .371 → .310; ISO .178 → .152; BABIP .362 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 150 PAwOBA .343 → .290 (−53)K% 27.3% → 33.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.33% | ÷0.993 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.33% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.08% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×1.034 | ×1.018 | 27.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.915 | ×0.830 | ×1.034 | ×1.018 | 7.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | ×1.018 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.149 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.58% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 95, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .343 → .290; ISO .161 → .116; BABIP .380 → .370. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 233 PAwOBA .365 → .302 (−62)K% 18.0% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.03% | ÷1.033 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.58% | ÷1.018 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 6.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.54% | ÷1.008 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 22.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.32% | ÷1.011 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 3.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.17% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 5.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.939 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 1.72% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .365 → .302; ISO .176 → .151; BABIP .368 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 96 PAwOBA .274 → .238 (−36)K% 19.8% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.79% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.963 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 8.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.54% | ÷0.978 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 21.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.62% | ÷1.028 | ×0.910 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 4.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.35% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .274 → .238; ISO .071 → .063; BABIP .266 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 399 PAwOBA .300 → .273 (−27)K% 25.6% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.56% | ÷1.055 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.27% | ÷1.031 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 4.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.48% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | ×1.027 | 25.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.18% | ÷1.007 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | ×1.027 | 3.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.18% | ÷1.010 | ×0.880 | ×1.026 | ×1.027 | 3.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.984 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.27% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 93, 2B 101, 3B 102, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .300 → .273; ISO .123 → .110; BABIP .344 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 240 PAwOBA .285 → .247 (−38)K% 18.8% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷1.017 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.75% | ÷0.967 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 6.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.42% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.18% | ÷1.073 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 19.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.24% | ÷1.007 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 8.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.024 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.59% | ÷0.917 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.57% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 115, 2B 102, 3B 105, K 103, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .285 → .247; ISO .088 → .082; BABIP .298 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).