Aaron McGarity — OGILVIE

Aaron McGarity P Charlotte Knights

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%19.6%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	7	1	21	81	27	2	0	14%	3.0	22.7%	3.1%	19.6%	0.0%	2.18	1.58	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	7	1	21	81	27	2	0	14%	3.0	33.3%	2.5%	30.9%	0.0%	2.18	0.78	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	36	162	42	11	2	0%	1.6	18.4%	7.8%	10.6%	1.0%	3.50	3.10	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	36	162	42	11	2	0%	1.6	25.9%	6.8%	19.1%	1.2%	3.50	2.41	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	19	71	28	5	1	0%	1.4	32.4%	9.2%	23.2%	1.9%	1.89	2.59	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	19	71	28	5	1	0%	1.4	39.4%	7.0%	32.4%	1.4%	1.89	1.63	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	51	1	70	301	72	25	13	2%	1.4	19.9%	7.5%	12.4%	4.7%	5.17	4.93	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	51	1	70	301	72	25	13	2%	1.4	19.9%	7.5%	12.4%	4.7%	5.17	4.93	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	51	1	70	301	72	25	13	2%	1.4	23.9%	8.3%	15.6%	4.3%	5.17	4.54	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	55	0	65	269	60	19	5	0%	1.2	18.5%	6.4%	12.2%	2.0%	2.77	3.45	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	55	0	65	269	60	19	5	0%	1.2	18.5%	6.4%	12.2%	2.0%	2.77	3.45	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	55	0	65	269	60	19	5	0%	1.2	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	1.9%	2.77	3.13	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	CWS	4	0	4	17	3	1	0	0%	1.0	19.6%	7.2%	12.4%	2.9%	4.34	4.34	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CWS	38	0	40	168	33	13	5	0%	1.1	19.5%	7.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.56	-0.0
2027	32	MLB CTX	CWS	14	0	15	63	12	5	2	0%	1.1	19.5%	7.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	62	12	5	2	0%	1.0	19.5%	7.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.18	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	68	27	0%	1.1	19.5%	7.8%	11.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		150	2	210	884	181	61	23	1%	1.4	20.4%	6.9%	13.5%	2.5%	3.55	3.65	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	2	200	841	172	58	21	1%	1.4	20.4%	6.9%	13.5%	2.5%	3.55	3.65	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron McGarity (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	19.6%	7.2%	2.9%	—	4.56	19.5%	11.8%	40	+0.22	—	—	—
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	85
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	85
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	84
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	84
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	84
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	84
Jim Johnson R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	32	SU	3.34	17.2%	6.2%	1.7%	.330	3.63	22.0%	14.1%	185	+0.29	2.56	251	83
Matt Albers R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	18.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.252	4.45	20.4%	13.3%	147	+1.26	3.15	244	83
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	83
Carlos Torres R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	19.8%	4.9%	2.1%	.315	3.67	20.8%	12.4%	206	+0.48	2.89	326	83
Pedro Beato R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.1%	6.4%	2.9%	.266	3.49	16.8%	9.3%	29	-0.22	3.47	295	83
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	83
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	82
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	82
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	82
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	82
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	81
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	81
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	80
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	31	SU	3.50	16.4%	8.4%	1.3%	.308	4.77	19.3%	7.3%	90	+1.27	3.50	170	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	42	19.6%	7.5%	1.18	4.40
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43