Aaron McGarity
P
Charlotte Knights
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%21.8%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 7 | 1 | 21 | 81 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 14% | 3.0 | 22.7% | 3.1% | 19.6% | 0.0% | 2.18 | 1.58 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 7 | 1 | 21 | 81 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 14% | 3.0 | 33.3% | 2.5% | 30.9% | 0.0% | 2.18 | 0.78 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 36 | 162 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 1.1% | 3.50 | 3.16 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 36 | 162 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.9% | 6.8% | 19.1% | 1.2% | 3.50 | 2.41 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 19 | 71 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.4% | 9.2% | 23.2% | 1.9% | 1.89 | 2.56 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 19 | 71 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 39.4% | 7.0% | 32.4% | 1.4% | 1.89 | 1.63 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 51 | 1 | 70 | 301 | 72 | 25 | 13 | 2% | 1.4 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 4.6% | 5.17 | 4.95 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 51 | 1 | 70 | 301 | 72 | 25 | 13 | 2% | 1.4 | 23.9% | 8.3% | 15.6% | 4.3% | 5.17 | 4.54 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 55 | 0 | 65 | 269 | 60 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 2.0% | 2.77 | 3.47 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 55 | 0 | 65 | 269 | 60 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.3% | 7.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | 2.77 | 3.13 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.16 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 82 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 150 | 2 | 210 | 884 | 187 | 68 | 22 | 1% | 1.4 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 2.5% | 3.55 | 3.67 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 143 | 2 | 200 | 841 | 178 | 64 | 21 | 1% | 1.4 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 2.5% | 3.55 | 3.67 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron McGarity (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.54 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 40 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 89 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 86 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 86 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 84 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 84 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 84 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 83 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 82 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 82 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.38 | 3.40 | 295 | 82 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 82 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 82 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 81 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 81 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 81 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 81 |
| Jim Johnson R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 80 |
| Carlos Torres R 2027 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.74 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 326 | 80 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 42 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 1.18 | 4.38 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |