Gosuke Katoh
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 415 | .267/.363/.401 | 11 | 11 | 73 | — | .226/.293/.329 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAASD | 402 | .306/.389/.474 | 8 | 8 | 85 | — | .248/.314/.361 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAANYM | 329 | .219/.305/.377 | 9 | 7 | 49 | — | .188/.247/.303 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | GCL Yankees1 | — | 215 | 184 | 57 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 310 | 404 | 522 | 925 | 212 | 378 | 20 | 13 | 403 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 465 | 383 | 85 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 71 | 142 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 222 | 348 | 326 | 674 | 104 | 339 | 31 | 15 | 309 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 149 | 124 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 50 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 161 | 268 | 202 | 469 | 40 | 253 | 34 | 12 | 219 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | — | 254 | 202 | 58 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 49 | 61 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 287 | 426 | 416 | 842 | 129 | 390 | 24 | 19 | 381 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 253 | 218 | 50 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 66 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 229 | 323 | 335 | 657 | 106 | 320 | 26 | 10 | 296 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | — | 346 | 300 | 88 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 72 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 293 | 378 | 440 | 818 | 147 | 366 | 21 | 12 | 361 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 503 | 433 | 99 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 62 | 123 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 229 | 329 | 335 | 664 | 106 | 305 | 24 | 12 | 303 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 307 | 262 | 73 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 82 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 279 | 382 | 443 | 825 | 164 | 367 | 27 | 14 | 370 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 108 | 97 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 237 | 308 | 289 | 597 | 52 | 329 | 26 | 9 | 274 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 402 | 350 | 107 | 27 | 4 | 8 | 46 | 84 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 306 | 389 | 474 | 864 | 169 | 381 | 21 | 11 | 380 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 329 | 292 | 64 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 73 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 219 | 305 | 377 | 682 | 158 | 262 | 22 | 10 | 307 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees1 | — | 215 | 194 | 40 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 63 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 206 | 277 | 335 | 612 | 129 | 282 | 29 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 465 | 408 | 74 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 46 | 195 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 181 | 269 | 262 | 531 | 81 | 317 | 42 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 149 | 131 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 69 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 130 | 197 | 168 | 365 | 38 | 229 | 46 | 7 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Yankees | — | 254 | 220 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 87 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 218 | 315 | 314 | 628 | 95 | 323 | 34 | 12 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 253 | 227 | 43 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 87 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 189 | 258 | 273 | 531 | 84 | 282 | 34 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Tampa Yankees | — | 346 | 311 | 73 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 108 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 235 | 302 | 354 | 656 | 119 | 332 | 31 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 503 | 452 | 97 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 150 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 215 | 287 | 301 | 588 | 86 | 305 | 30 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 307 | 277 | 64 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 98 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 231 | 304 | 357 | 661 | 126 | 319 | 32 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 108 | 100 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 262 | 250 | 512 | 40 | 317 | 33 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 402 | 363 | 90 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 105 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 248 | 314 | 361 | 675 | 113 | 327 | 26 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 329 | 304 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 91 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 188 | 247 | 303 | 550 | 115 | 240 | 28 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees1 | — | 215 | 194 | 40 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 63 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 206 | 277 | 335 | 612 | 129 | 281 | 29 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Yankees1 | — | 215 | 184 | 57 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 310 | 404 | 522 | 925 | 212 | 378 | 20 | 13 | 403 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 465 | 408 | 74 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 46 | 195 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 181 | 269 | 262 | 531 | 81 | 332 | 42 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 465 | 383 | 85 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 71 | 142 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 222 | 348 | 326 | 674 | 104 | 339 | 31 | 15 | 309 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 403 | 351 | 64 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 156 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 182 | 270 | 254 | 523 | 71 | 307 | 39 | 10 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 403 | 326 | 78 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 67 | 111 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 239 | 369 | 334 | 703 | 95 | 341 | 28 | 17 | 321 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 253 | 227 | 43 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 87 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 189 | 258 | 273 | 531 | 84 | 298 | 34 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 253 | 218 | 50 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 66 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 229 | 323 | 335 | 657 | 106 | 320 | 26 | 10 | 296 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Tampa Yankees | — | 346 | 311 | 73 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 108 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 235 | 302 | 354 | 656 | 119 | 340 | 31 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | Tampa Yankees | — | 346 | 300 | 88 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 72 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 293 | 378 | 440 | 818 | 147 | 366 | 21 | 12 | 361 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 503 | 452 | 97 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 150 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 215 | 287 | 301 | 588 | 86 | 309 | 30 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | Trenton Thunder | — | 503 | 433 | 99 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 62 | 123 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 229 | 329 | 335 | 664 | 106 | 305 | 24 | 12 | 303 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 415 | 377 | 84 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 34 | 133 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 223 | 291 | 326 | 617 | 103 | 318 | 32 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 415 | 359 | 96 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 52 | 110 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 267 | 363 | 401 | 764 | 134 | 356 | 27 | 13 | 345 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 402 | 363 | 90 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 105 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 248 | 314 | 361 | 675 | 113 | 333 | 26 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 402 | 350 | 107 | 27 | 4 | 8 | 46 | 84 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 306 | 389 | 474 | 864 | 169 | 381 | 21 | 11 | 380 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 329 | 304 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 91 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 188 | 247 | 303 | 550 | 115 | 246 | 28 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | Syracuse Mets | — | 329 | 292 | 64 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 73 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 219 | 305 | 377 | 682 | 158 | 262 | 22 | 10 | 307 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees1 | — | 215 | 194 | 40 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 63 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 206 | 277 | 335 | 612 | 129 | 282 | 29 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 465 | 413 | 74 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 46 | 195 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 179 | 269 | 259 | 528 | 80 | 317 | 42 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 403 | 358 | 64 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 156 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 179 | 270 | 249 | 518 | 70 | 288 | 39 | 10 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 253 | 230 | 43 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 87 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 187 | 258 | 270 | 528 | 83 | 282 | 34 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Tampa Yankees | — | 346 | 313 | 73 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 108 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 233 | 302 | 351 | 653 | 118 | 332 | 31 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 503 | 452 | 97 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 150 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 215 | 287 | 301 | 588 | 86 | 305 | 30 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 415 | 376 | 84 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 34 | 133 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 223 | 291 | 327 | 618 | 104 | 318 | 32 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 402 | 364 | 90 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 105 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 247 | 314 | 360 | 674 | 113 | 327 | 26 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 329 | 302 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 91 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 189 | 247 | 305 | 552 | 116 | 240 | 28 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3331 | 2987 | 622 | 123 | 22 | 42 | 281 | 1088 | 21 | 95 | 38 | 208 | 281 | 306 | 587 | 98 | 309 | 33 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -150 | +4 | +1 | +5 | +72 | -7.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 121 | 24 | 4 | 8 | 55 | 212 | 4 | 19 | 7 | 208 | 280 | 304 | 584 | 96 | 309 | 33 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -29 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 329 PAwOBA .296 → .240 (−57)K% 22.2% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.19% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.12% | ÷1.019 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.35% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×0.991 | ×0.992 | 16.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.85% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×0.991 | ×0.992 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.991 | ×0.992 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.11% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.76% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .296 → .240; ISO .158 → .117; BABIP .262 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 402 PAwOBA .372 → .294 (−78)K% 20.9% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.90% | ÷0.960 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.44% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.56% | ÷1.003 | ×0.930 | ×0.992 | ×1.003 | 23.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.15% | ÷1.116 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×1.003 | 7.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.50% | ÷1.099 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×1.003 | 1.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.01% | ÷1.154 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.83% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 101, 2B 123, 3B 120, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .372 → .294; ISO .169 → .116; BABIP .381 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 307 PAwOBA .359 → .291 (−69)K% 26.7% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.71% | ÷1.007 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.36% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.89% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 25.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.009 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 4.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.11% | ÷1.087 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 4.88% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 88, K 101, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .359 → .291; ISO .164 → .131; BABIP .367 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AATrenton Thunder · 108 PAwOBA .270 → .232 (−38)K% 25.9% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.93% | ÷0.956 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.26% | ÷0.999 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.54% | ÷0.984 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.998 | 27.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.040 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 3.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.45% | ÷0.937 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.998 | 1.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 108, 3B 87, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .270 → .232; ISO .052 → .044; BABIP .329 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AATrenton Thunder · 503 PAwOBA .295 → .264 (−31)K% 24.5% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.45% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.73% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.97% | ÷0.954 | ×0.970 | ×1.030 | ×1.012 | 22.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.71% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×1.030 | ×1.012 | 7.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷0.944 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | ×1.012 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.034 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.23% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 108, 3B 89, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .295 → .264; ISO .106 → .089; BABIP .305 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Tampa Yankees · 346 PAwOBA .353 → .289 (−65)K% 20.8% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.81% | ÷0.949 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.27% | ÷1.007 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 8.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.29% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.88% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 22.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.77% | ÷0.995 | ×0.960 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 8.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.031 | ×0.810 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.949 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.44% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 114, 2B 99, 3B 106, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .353 → .289; ISO .147 → .126; BABIP .366 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ACharleston RiverDogs · 253 PAwOBA .291 → .230 (−61)K% 26.1% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷1.017 | ×1.340 | — | — | 34.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.28% | ÷0.995 | ×0.660 | — | — | 6.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.015 | — | 19.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.21% | ÷1.145 | ×0.820 | ×1.015 | — | 6.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.97% | ÷0.930 | ×0.940 | ×1.015 | — | 2.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.66% | ÷0.895 | ×0.820 | — | — | 0.60% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 100, 2B 129, 3B 86, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .291 → .230; ISO .106 → .084; BABIP .320 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKPulaski Yankees · 254 PAwOBA .372 → .274 (−98)K% 24.0% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.02% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 34.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.985 | 12.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.031 | ×0.985 | 26.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.031 | ×0.985 | 4.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.031 | ×0.985 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.985 | 2.79% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .372 → .274; ISO .129 → .096; BABIP .390 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).