Dustin Fowler
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | AAAMIL | 239 | .341/.366/.520 | 4 | 13 | 104 | — | .294/.315/.433 | |
| 2018 | 23 | MLBOakland Athle… | 203 | .224/.259/.354 | 6 | 6 | 73 | -0.4 | ||
| 2019 | 24 | AAAOAK | 606 | .277/.334/.477 | 25 | 12 | 63 | — | .210/.257/.347 | |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA/ROK2 orgs | 174 | .280/.343/.535 | 10 | 2 | 88 | — | .244/.297/.450 | |
| 2021 | 26 | MLBPIT | 46 | .171/.244/.195 | 0 | 1 | 26 | -0.2 | ||
| 2022 | 27 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | GCL Yankees1 | — | 117 | 112 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 241 | 274 | 384 | 657 | 143 | 303 | 20 | 3 | 289 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 272 | 257 | 66 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 53 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 257 | 293 | 459 | 752 | 202 | 291 | 19 | 5 | 326 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | — | 262 | 246 | 71 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 43 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 289 | 330 | 370 | 699 | 81 | 345 | 16 | 6 | 314 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 256 | 241 | 74 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 47 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 307 | 343 | 419 | 762 | 112 | 365 | 18 | 4 | 337 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 65 | 61 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 279 | 312 | 410 | 722 | 131 | 306 | 15 | 5 | 317 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 574 | 541 | 152 | 30 | 15 | 12 | 22 | 86 | 4 | 25 | 11 | 281 | 314 | 458 | 772 | 177 | 312 | 15 | 4 | 334 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 313 | 297 | 87 | 19 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 63 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 293 | 329 | 542 | 871 | 249 | 335 | 20 | 5 | 377 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 203 | 192 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 224 | 259 | 354 | 613 | 130 | 262 | 23 | 4 | 270 | 73 | -6 | -0 | -3 | +2 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 239 | 229 | 78 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 341 | 366 | 520 | 885 | 179 | 400 | 17 | 4 | 386 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 606 | 556 | 154 | 22 | 7 | 25 | 42 | 145 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 277 | 334 | 477 | 811 | 200 | 332 | 24 | 7 | 356 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 46 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 244 | 195 | 440 | 24 | 318 | 43 | 7 | 207 | 26 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 157 | 142 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 289 | 348 | 535 | 884 | 246 | 372 | 31 | 7 | 381 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | ROK | FCL Pirates Black | — | 17 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 294 | 533 | 827 | 333 | 250 | 35 | 6 | 355 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 249 | 233 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 67 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 215 | 256 | 326 | 582 | 112 | 270 | 27 | 4 | 259 | 61 | -12 | -0 | -3 | +2 | +5 | -0.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees1 | — | 117 | 114 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 167 | 188 | 263 | 451 | 96 | 233 | 28 | 2 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 272 | 262 | 56 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 73 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 214 | 237 | 378 | 615 | 164 | 261 | 27 | 3 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ MLE | Tampa Yankees | — | 262 | 251 | 61 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 60 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 243 | 272 | 311 | 583 | 68 | 311 | 23 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 256 | 246 | 63 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 65 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 256 | 280 | 346 | 625 | 89 | 330 | 25 | 2 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 574 | 548 | 145 | 27 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 105 | 4 | 25 | 11 | 265 | 289 | 414 | 703 | 150 | 305 | 18 | 3 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 313 | 303 | 75 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 248 | 272 | 436 | 707 | 188 | 301 | 24 | 3 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 203 | 192 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 229 | 264 | 375 | 639 | 146 | 262 | 23 | 4 | 277 | 73 | -6 | -0 | -3 | +2 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 239 | 231 | 68 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 294 | 315 | 433 | 748 | 139 | 361 | 21 | 3 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 606 | 568 | 119 | 17 | 5 | 17 | 30 | 189 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 210 | 257 | 347 | 603 | 137 | 279 | 31 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 46 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 244 | 195 | 440 | 24 | 318 | 43 | 7 | 207 | 26 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 157 | 145 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 248 | 297 | 441 | 738 | 193 | 349 | 38 | 5 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates Black | — | 17 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 294 | 533 | 827 | 333 | 176 | 53 | 6 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees1 | — | 117 | 114 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 167 | 188 | 263 | 451 | 96 | 235 | 28 | 2 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Yankees1 | — | 117 | 112 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 241 | 274 | 384 | 657 | 143 | 303 | 20 | 3 | 289 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 272 | 262 | 56 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 73 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 214 | 237 | 378 | 615 | 164 | 264 | 27 | 3 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 272 | 257 | 66 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 53 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 257 | 293 | 459 | 752 | 202 | 291 | 19 | 5 | 326 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 583 | 559 | 139 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 141 | 2 | 37 | 13 | 249 | 275 | 327 | 602 | 79 | 322 | 24 | 3 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 583 | 548 | 162 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 100 | 2 | 37 | 13 | 296 | 333 | 396 | 729 | 100 | 349 | 17 | 5 | 324 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 574 | 548 | 145 | 27 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 105 | 4 | 25 | 11 | 265 | 289 | 414 | 703 | 150 | 310 | 18 | 3 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | AA RAW | Trenton Thunder | — | 574 | 541 | 152 | 30 | 15 | 12 | 22 | 86 | 4 | 25 | 11 | 281 | 314 | 458 | 772 | 177 | 312 | 15 | 4 | 334 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 313 | 303 | 75 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 248 | 272 | 436 | 707 | 188 | 303 | 24 | 3 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AAA RAW | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 313 | 297 | 87 | 19 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 63 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 293 | 329 | 542 | 871 | 249 | 335 | 20 | 5 | 377 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 442 | 423 | 111 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 97 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 262 | 289 | 402 | 691 | 139 | 317 | 22 | 3 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 442 | 421 | 121 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 17 | 88 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 287 | 317 | 444 | 761 | 157 | 340 | 20 | 4 | 333 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 606 | 568 | 119 | 17 | 5 | 17 | 30 | 189 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 210 | 257 | 347 | 603 | 137 | 280 | 31 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA RAW | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 606 | 556 | 154 | 22 | 7 | 25 | 42 | 145 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 277 | 334 | 477 | 811 | 200 | 332 | 24 | 7 | 356 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 220 | 202 | 44 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 88 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 218 | 272 | 361 | 633 | 144 | 336 | 40 | 5 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 220 | 198 | 51 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 75 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 258 | 323 | 465 | 787 | 207 | 353 | 34 | 7 | 342 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees1 | — | 117 | 113 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 168 | 188 | 265 | 454 | 97 | 233 | 28 | 2 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 272 | 262 | 56 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 73 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 214 | 237 | 378 | 615 | 164 | 261 | 27 | 3 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 583 | 558 | 139 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 141 | 2 | 37 | 13 | 249 | 275 | 328 | 603 | 79 | 320 | 24 | 3 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 574 | 550 | 145 | 27 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 105 | 4 | 25 | 11 | 264 | 289 | 413 | 702 | 149 | 305 | 18 | 3 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 313 | 300 | 75 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 250 | 272 | 440 | 712 | 190 | 301 | 24 | 3 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 442 | 423 | 111 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 97 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 262 | 289 | 402 | 691 | 139 | 316 | 22 | 3 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 606 | 565 | 119 | 17 | 5 | 17 | 30 | 189 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 211 | 257 | 349 | 605 | 138 | 279 | 31 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 220 | 203 | 44 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 88 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 217 | 272 | 360 | 631 | 143 | 329 | 40 | 5 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 249 | 233 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 67 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 215 | 256 | 326 | 582 | 112 | 270 | 27 | 4 | 259 | 74 | -12 | -0 | -3 | +2 | +5 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 608 | 130 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 29 | 175 | 5 | 18 | 10 | 214 | 255 | 326 | 581 | 112 | 268 | 27 | 4 | 259 | 74 | -30 | -1 | -8 | +6 | +14 | -1.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3127 | 2979 | 708 | 114 | 47 | 65 | 108 | 802 | 19 | 115 | 42 | 238 | 269 | 373 | 642 | 135 | 302 | 26 | 3 | 277 | 74 | -12 | -0 | -3 | +2 | +5 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 619 | 148 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 22 | 167 | 4 | 24 | 9 | 239 | 270 | 378 | 648 | 139 | 303 | 26 | 3 | 277 | 74 | -30 | -1 | -8 | +6 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 157 PAwOBA .375 → .309 (−65)K% 31.2% → 38.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.21% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.01% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.96% | ÷0.971 | ×0.930 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 27.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.30% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 3.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.15% | ÷1.109 | ×0.920 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 1.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.68% | ÷0.886 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 7.67% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 122, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .375 → .309; ISO .246 → .189; BABIP .372 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Pirates Black · 17 PAwOBA .345 → .205 (−140)K% 35.3% → 50.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.29% | ÷1.012 | ×1.440 | — | — | 50.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.002 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 3.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 3.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.998 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 8.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 7.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.976 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 8.34% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 99, 3B 100, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .345 → .205; ISO .333 → .193; BABIP .250 → .176. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 606 PAwOBA .347 → .262 (−85)K% 23.9% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.93% | ÷0.990 | ×1.290 | — | — | 31.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.77% | ÷0.985 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 5.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.33% | ÷1.018 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 21.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.35% | ÷0.951 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 4.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.70% | ÷1.102 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.08% | ÷1.119 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 4.38% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 120, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .347 → .262; ISO .200 → .137; BABIP .332 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAANashville Sounds · 239 PAwOBA .377 → .322 (−55)K% 17.2% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.15% | ÷1.055 | ×1.290 | — | — | 20.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.77% | ÷0.966 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 2.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.13% | ÷0.986 | ×0.900 | ×0.977 | ×1.048 | 25.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.04% | ÷0.937 | ×0.810 | ×0.977 | ×1.048 | 8.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.19% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.977 | ×1.048 | 2.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.988 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 1.76% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 111, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .377 → .322; ISO .179 → .142; BABIP .400 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 313 PAwOBA .365 → .298 (−67)K% 20.1% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.13% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.47% | ÷1.105 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 2.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.32% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.09% | ÷0.980 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 19.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.12% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 7.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.42% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 2.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.247 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 3.93% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 99, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .365 → .298; ISO .249 → .188; BABIP .335 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AATrenton Thunder · 574 PAwOBA .328 → .300 (−28)K% 15.0% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.98% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.83% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 2.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.88% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 21.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.59% | ÷0.962 | ×0.860 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.30% | ÷1.039 | ×0.950 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 3.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.64% | ÷1.015 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 2.11% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 96, 2B 92, 3B 108, K 99, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .328 → .300; ISO .177 → .154; BABIP .312 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Tampa Yankees · 262 PAwOBA .304 → .257 (−47)K% 16.4% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.41% | ÷1.016 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.96% | ÷1.015 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.027 | 3.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.59% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×1.027 | 24.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.42% | ÷1.044 | ×0.960 | ×1.000 | ×1.027 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.48% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.000 | ×1.027 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.49% | ÷0.832 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.54% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 66, 1B 109, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 103, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .304 → .257; ISO .081 → .069; BABIP .345 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ACharleston RiverDogs · 256 PAwOBA .329 → .274 (−55)K% 18.4% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.36% | ÷0.968 | ×1.340 | — | — | 25.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.91% | ÷1.054 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 2.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.90% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×1.015 | 27.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.64% | ÷0.989 | ×0.820 | ×1.011 | ×1.015 | 3.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.041 | ×0.940 | ×1.011 | ×1.015 | 1.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.06% | ÷0.937 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 1.83% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 108, K 94, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .329 → .274; ISO .112 → .093; BABIP .365 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).