Matt Foster

P Reno Aces

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	27	MIX2 levels	59	0	56	3.70	3.46	23.8%	7.7%	0.7	K 21.8% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.99
2024	29	MIX3 levels	23	2	25	2.55	3.26	24.1%	9.3%	0.4	K 24.8% · BB 6.8% · FIP 2.77
2025	30	AAAARI	31	0	35	3.89	3.59	27.5%	7.8%	—	K 23.6% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.18
2027PROJ	32	MLBARI	51	0	54	4.39	4.39	21.1%	7.7%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBARI	17	0	18	4.56	4.67	20.2%	8.2%	-0.0
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBARI	14	0	15	4.81	4.98	19.3%	8.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff46Control50Command50FB velo49

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Dale Thayer (age 32) · Arcenio Leon (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%21.1%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%13.4%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

FB+0.8 (44%)

CU (8%)

CH (17%)

SL (31%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	22	0	30	109	41	7	0	0%	1.3	25.6%	8.0%	17.6%	0.0%	0.61	1.96	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Great Falls Voyagers	22	0	30	109	41	7	0	0%	1.3	37.6%	6.4%	31.2%	0.0%	0.61	1.04	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	28	103	33	5	1	0%	1.3	24.1%	5.6%	18.5%	1.5%	1.30	2.62	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	28	103	33	5	1	0%	1.3	32.0%	4.9%	27.2%	1.0%	1.30	1.73	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	60	248	70	19	4	0%	1.3	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	2.0%	3.30	3.42	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	60	248	70	19	4	0%	1.3	28.2%	7.7%	20.6%	1.6%	3.30	2.58	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	65	257	74	21	9	0%	1.5	24.4%	8.9%	15.5%	3.6%	3.20	4.17	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	65	257	74	21	9	0%	1.5	28.8%	8.2%	20.6%	3.5%	3.20	3.59	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	23	2	29	109	31	9	2	9%	1.2	28.4%	8.3%	20.2%	1.8%	2.20	2.73	+0.6
2020	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	23	2	29	109	31	9	2	9%	1.2	28.4%	8.3%	20.2%	1.8%	2.20	2.79	+0.6
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	54	234	63	15	11	0%	1.1	25.7%	6.5%	19.3%	4.6%	5.53	4.25	+0.2
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	54	234	63	15	11	0%	1.1	26.9%	6.4%	20.5%	4.7%	5.53	4.26	+0.2
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	56	235	56	18	6	0%	0.9	21.8%	8.3%	13.5%	3.1%	3.70	3.99	+0.4
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	56	235	56	18	6	0%	0.9	23.8%	7.7%	16.2%	2.6%	3.70	3.46	+0.7
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	2	25	108	26	10	2	9%	1.1	24.8%	6.8%	17.9%	1.6%	2.55	2.77	+0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	2	25	108	26	10	2	9%	1.1	24.8%	6.8%	17.9%	1.6%	2.55	2.77	+0.5
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	2	25	108	26	10	2	9%	1.1	24.1%	9.3%	14.8%	1.9%	2.55	3.26	+0.4
2025	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	31	0	35	153	42	12	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	7.1%	16.5%	4.0%	3.89	4.18	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	31	0	35	153	42	12	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	7.1%	16.5%	4.0%	3.89	4.18	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	31	0	35	153	42	12	5	0%	1.1	27.5%	7.8%	19.6%	3.3%	3.89	3.59	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			114	3	119	506	117	43	18	3%	1.0	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	3.6%	4.30	4.18	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	ARI	51	0	54	228	48	18	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	3.1%	4.39	4.39	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	ARI	48	0	50	211	43	17	7	0%	1.0	20.2%	8.2%	12.1%	3.4%	4.56	4.67	-0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	ARI	43	0	45	192	37	17	7	0%	1.1	19.3%	8.7%	10.7%	3.7%	4.81	4.98	-0.2
2030	35	MLB MLE	ARI	39	0	41	172	32	16	7	0%	1.0	18.4%	9.2%	9.2%	4.0%	5.11	5.31	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	ARI	17	0	18	76	15	6	3	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.2%	12.1%	3.4%	4.56	4.67	-0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	ARI	14	0	15	63	12	5	2	0%	1.1	19.3%	8.7%	10.7%	3.7%	4.81	4.98	-0.1
2030	35	MLB CTX	ARI	10	0	11	46	9	4	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.2%	9.2%	4.0%	5.11	5.31	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		156	3	164	693	153	59	25	2%	1.0	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	3.6%	4.43	4.28	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	4	200	847	187	72	31	2%	1.0	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	3.6%	4.43	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		319	4	380	1556	376	120	44	1%	1.2	24.1%	7.7%	16.4%	2.8%	3.22	3.58	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		168	2	200	820	198	63	23	1%	1.2	24.1%	7.7%	16.4%	2.8%	3.22	3.58	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Foster (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	21.1%	7.7%	3.1%	—	4.97	19.4%	10.7%	136	+0.58	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	84
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	84
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	84
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	84
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	82
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	82
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	82
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	81
Jean Machi R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	20.5%	6.0%	2.2%	.225	4.34	17.8%	10.6%	186	+1.01	2.16	306	81
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	80
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	80
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	80
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	79
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	79
Jared Burton R 2013 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	21.7%	6.0%	2.1%	.279	3.92	18.4%	10.0%	78	+0.72	3.09	367	78
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	78
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	78
Deolis Guerra R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	32	SU	3.89	23.0%	7.4%	3.3%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	2.53	364	78
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	44	21.1%	8.5%	1.37	4.54
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*