Matt Foster
P
Reno Aces
Age 31
RHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.44
FIP4.45
K%22.2%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+0.8 (44%)
CU (8%)
CH (17%)
SL (31%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | 22 | 0 | 30 | 109 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 17.6% | 0.0% | 0.61 | 1.96 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | 22 | 0 | 30 | 109 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 37.6% | 6.4% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 0.61 | 1.04 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 0 | 28 | 103 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.1% | 5.6% | 18.5% | 1.9% | 1.30 | 2.85 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 0 | 28 | 103 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.0% | 4.9% | 27.2% | 1.0% | 1.30 | 1.73 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 60 | 248 | 70 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 2.1% | 3.30 | 3.46 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 60 | 248 | 70 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.2% | 7.7% | 20.6% | 1.6% | 3.30 | 2.58 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 65 | 257 | 74 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.4% | 8.9% | 15.5% | 3.1% | 3.20 | 3.87 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 65 | 257 | 74 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.8% | 8.2% | 20.6% | 3.5% | 3.20 | 3.59 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 23 | 2 | 29 | 109 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 9% | 1.2 | 28.4% | 8.3% | 20.2% | 1.8% | 2.20 | 2.72 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 23 | 2 | 29 | 109 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 9% | 1.2 | 28.4% | 8.3% | 20.2% | 1.8% | 2.20 | 2.79 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 54 | 234 | 63 | 15 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 6.5% | 19.3% | 4.4% | 5.53 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 54 | 234 | 63 | 15 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 6.4% | 20.5% | 4.7% | 5.53 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 56 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 3.70 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 56 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.8% | 7.7% | 16.2% | 2.6% | 3.70 | 3.46 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 2 | 25 | 108 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 9% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 8.0% | 17.4% | 1.6% | 2.55 | 2.86 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 2 | 25 | 108 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 9% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 1.9% | 2.55 | 3.26 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Reno Aces | 31 | 0 | 35 | 153 | 42 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.2% | 15.9% | 4.4% | 3.89 | 4.54 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Reno Aces | 31 | 0 | 35 | 153 | 42 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 7.8% | 19.6% | 3.3% | 3.89 | 3.59 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 52 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 13.8% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 46 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 4.60 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 41 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 36 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 5.11 | 5.29 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 4.60 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 5.11 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 177 | 3 | 186 | 786 | 174 | 69 | 29 | 2% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 4.50 | 4.34 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 3 | 200 | 847 | 187 | 74 | 31 | 2% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 4.50 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 319 | 4 | 380 | 1556 | 377 | 123 | 43 | 1% | 1.2 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 16.3% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 3.58 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 2 | 200 | 820 | 199 | 65 | 23 | 1% | 1.2 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 16.3% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 3.58 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Foster (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 3.3% | — | 4.98 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 141 | +0.53 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 88 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 87 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 86 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 86 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 86 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 86 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 84 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.38 | 3.40 | 295 | 84 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 84 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 84 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 84 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 83 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 83 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 81 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | .256 | 4.04 | 20.1% | 14.5% | 151 | -0.25 | 2.80 | 288 | 81 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 80 |
| Jim Johnson R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 80 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.50 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.27 | 426 | 80 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 80 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 1.40 | 4.72 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |