Matt Foster
P
Reno Aces
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
xFIP6.94
SIERA6.66
K%23.8%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%15.1%
IP22
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL5050
CMD5555
K†5555
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p1921.0%
K%
p4721.8%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
FB+0.8 (44%)
CU (8%)
CH (17%)
SL (31%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | 22 | 0 | 30 | 109 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 0.61 | 1.96 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 22 | 0 | 28 | 103 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 24.1% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 1.30 | 2.57 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 45 | 0 | 60 | 248 | 70 | 19 | 4 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 2.0% | 3.30 | 3.41 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 43 | 0 | 65 | 257 | 74 | 21 | 9 | 24.4% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 3.20 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 23 | 2 | 29 | 109 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 28.4% | 8.3% | 1.7% | 2.20 | 2.70 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 51 | 0 | 54 | 234 | 63 | 15 | 11 | 25.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.53 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 59 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 56 | 18 | 6 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 3.70 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 23 | 2 | 25 | 108 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 25.3% | 8.0% | 1.6% | 2.55 | 2.87 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Reno Aces | 31 | 0 | 35 | 153 | 42 | 12 | 5 | 24.2% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 3.89 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 22 | — | 22 | 94 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 22.9% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 21 | — | 21 | 90 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 22.3% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 319 | 4 | 380 | 1556 | 377 | 123 | 44 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 3.60 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 2 | 200 | 820 | 199 | 65 | 23 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 3.60 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Foster (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 22.9% | 8.5% | 3.2% | — | 4.51 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 21 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 90 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 86 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 82 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 82 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 80 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 80 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 79 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 78 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 78 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.32 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.11 | 3.21 | 425 | 77 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 77 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 77 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 77 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 76 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.09 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .278 | 3.53 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.56 | 2.31 | 403 | 76 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.49 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.20 | 3.46 | 295 | 75 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.