Matt Foster — OGILVIE

Matt Foster P Reno Aces

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.37

K%21.2%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

FB+0.8 (44%)

CU (8%)

CH (17%)

SL (31%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	22	0	30	109	41	7	0	0%	1.3	25.6%	8.0%	17.6%	0.0%	0.61	1.96	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Great Falls Voyagers	22	0	30	109	41	7	0	0%	1.3	37.6%	6.4%	31.2%	0.0%	0.61	1.04	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	28	103	33	5	1	0%	1.3	24.1%	5.6%	18.5%	1.5%	1.30	2.62	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	28	103	33	5	1	0%	1.3	32.0%	4.9%	27.2%	1.0%	1.30	1.73	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	60	248	70	19	4	0%	1.3	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	2.0%	3.30	3.42	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	60	248	70	19	4	0%	1.3	28.2%	7.7%	20.6%	1.6%	3.30	2.58	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	65	257	74	21	9	0%	1.5	24.4%	8.9%	15.5%	3.6%	3.20	4.17	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	65	257	74	21	9	0%	1.5	28.8%	8.2%	20.6%	3.5%	3.20	3.59	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	23	2	29	109	31	9	2	9%	1.2	28.4%	8.3%	20.2%	1.8%	2.20	2.73	+0.6
2020	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	23	2	29	109	31	9	2	9%	1.2	28.4%	8.3%	20.2%	1.8%	2.20	2.79	+0.6
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	54	234	63	15	11	0%	1.1	25.7%	6.5%	19.3%	4.6%	5.53	4.25	+0.2
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	54	234	63	15	11	0%	1.1	26.9%	6.4%	20.5%	4.7%	5.53	4.26	+0.2
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	56	235	56	18	6	0%	0.9	21.8%	8.3%	13.5%	3.1%	3.70	3.99	+0.4
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	56	235	56	18	6	0%	0.9	23.8%	7.7%	16.2%	2.6%	3.70	3.46	+0.7
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	2	25	108	26	10	2	9%	1.1	23.9%	6.8%	17.1%	1.6%	2.55	2.85	+0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	2	25	108	26	10	2	9%	1.1	23.9%	6.8%	17.1%	1.6%	2.55	2.85	+0.5
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	2	25	108	26	10	2	9%	1.1	24.1%	9.3%	14.8%	1.9%	2.55	3.26	+0.4
2025	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	31	0	35	153	42	12	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	7.1%	15.7%	4.0%	3.89	4.25	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	31	0	35	153	42	12	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	7.1%	15.7%	4.0%	3.89	4.25	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	31	0	35	153	42	12	5	0%	1.1	27.5%	7.8%	19.6%	3.3%	3.89	3.59	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			114	3	119	506	117	43	18	3%	1.0	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	3.6%	4.30	4.18	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	ARI	4	0	4	17	4	1	1	0%	1.0	21.2%	7.4%	13.8%	3.2%	4.36	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	ARI	49	0	51	216	44	17	7	0%	1.0	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	3.4%	4.52	4.62	-0.0
2028	33	MLB MLE	ARI	45	0	47	198	39	16	7	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.3%	11.3%	3.7%	4.75	4.90	-0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	ARI	41	0	43	181	34	16	7	0%	1.0	18.7%	8.8%	9.9%	4.0%	5.02	5.21	-0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	ARI	18	0	19	80	16	6	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	3.4%	4.52	4.62	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	ARI	25	0	26	110	21	9	4	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.3%	11.3%	3.7%	4.75	4.90	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	ARI	21	0	22	93	17	8	4	0%	1.0	18.7%	8.8%	9.9%	4.0%	5.02	5.21	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		177	3	186	786	172	66	28	2%	1.0	21.8%	8.4%	13.4%	3.6%	4.47	4.31	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	3	200	847	185	71	30	2%	1.0	21.8%	8.4%	13.4%	3.6%	4.47	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		319	4	380	1556	373	120	44	1%	1.2	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	2.8%	3.22	3.59	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		168	2	200	820	197	63	23	1%	1.2	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	2.8%	3.22	3.59	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Foster (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	21.2%	7.4%	3.2%	—	4.89	19.6%	11.4%	141	+0.52	—	—	—
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	87
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	87
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	87
Pedro Beato R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.1%	6.4%	2.9%	.266	3.49	16.8%	9.3%	29	-0.22	3.47	295	86
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	85
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	84
Carlos Torres R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	19.8%	4.9%	2.1%	.315	3.67	20.8%	12.4%	206	+0.48	2.89	326	84
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	84
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	84
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	82
Jim Johnson R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	32	SU	3.34	17.2%	6.2%	1.7%	.330	3.63	22.0%	14.1%	185	+0.29	2.56	251	82
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	82
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	82
Matt Albers R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	18.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.252	4.45	20.4%	13.3%	147	+1.26	3.15	244	82
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	82
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	81
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	81
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	81
Fernando Salas R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.8%	6.1%	4.1%	.256	3.90	20.1%	14.5%	151	-0.39	2.71	288	81
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	20.1%	8.0%	1.37	4.64
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41