Luis Aviles Jr.
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 490 | .271/.315/.462 | 18 | 18 | 77 | — | .209/.242/.358 |
| 2023 | 28 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 471 | .243/.308/.406 | 15 | 30 | 49 | — | .191/.243/.310 |
| 2024 | 29 | INTLVenados de Ma… | 179 | .217/.260/.301 | 2 | 3 | 56 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | AZL Brewers | — | 136 | 121 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 207 | 273 | 256 | 529 | 50 | 301 | 29 | 7 | 239 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK | Helena Brewers | — | 205 | 187 | 47 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 57 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 251 | 303 | 369 | 672 | 118 | 352 | 28 | 7 | 295 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 190 | 185 | 36 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 66 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 195 | 207 | 297 | 505 | 103 | 291 | 35 | 2 | 220 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Helena Brewers | — | 61 | 59 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 356 | 377 | 475 | 852 | 119 | 455 | 23 | 3 | 379 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 493 | 456 | 109 | 22 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 130 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 239 | 289 | 373 | 662 | 134 | 314 | 26 | 6 | 293 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 529 | 492 | 114 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 141 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 232 | 279 | 309 | 588 | 77 | 309 | 27 | 5 | 265 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 233 | 207 | 52 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 52 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 251 | 329 | 377 | 706 | 126 | 316 | 22 | 10 | 317 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 258 | 238 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 71 | 2 | 17 | 4 | 256 | 303 | 345 | 648 | 88 | 353 | 28 | 5 | 288 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 341 | 300 | 76 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 89 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 253 | 327 | 327 | 654 | 73 | 346 | 26 | 9 | 294 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 293 | 267 | 63 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 18 | 73 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 236 | 292 | 468 | 760 | 232 | 261 | 25 | 6 | 327 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 110 | 105 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 257 | 291 | 343 | 634 | 86 | 333 | 25 | 4 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 202 | 191 | 47 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 52 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 246 | 287 | 450 | 737 | 204 | 303 | 26 | 5 | 323 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 187 | 172 | 46 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 48 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 267 | 311 | 471 | 782 | 203 | 322 | 26 | 5 | 336 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL | Adelaide Giants | — | 101 | 94 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 330 | 376 | 468 | 844 | 138 | 370 | 17 | 5 | 377 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 408 | 366 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 15 | 30 | 107 | 6 | 26 | 7 | 243 | 310 | 423 | 734 | 180 | 301 | 26 | 7 | 322 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 63 | 58 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 241 | 290 | 293 | 583 | 52 | 292 | 16 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 179 | 166 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 260 | 301 | 561 | 84 | 250 | 16 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers | — | 136 | 125 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 58 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 144 | 189 | 168 | 357 | 24 | 255 | 43 | 4 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 205 | 192 | 34 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 82 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 177 | 214 | 250 | 464 | 73 | 294 | 40 | 4 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 190 | 186 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 145 | 154 | 210 | 364 | 65 | 268 | 47 | 1 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 61 | 60 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 250 | 262 | 350 | 612 | 100 | 360 | 33 | 2 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 493 | 464 | 87 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 173 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 188 | 227 | 282 | 510 | 95 | 277 | 35 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 529 | 502 | 95 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 202 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 189 | 223 | 251 | 474 | 62 | 292 | 38 | 3 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 233 | 214 | 50 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 234 | 290 | 341 | 631 | 107 | 321 | 29 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 258 | 243 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 104 | 2 | 17 | 4 | 181 | 217 | 243 | 459 | 62 | 294 | 40 | 3 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 341 | 311 | 67 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 111 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 215 | 267 | 277 | 544 | 61 | 304 | 33 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 293 | 273 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 88 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 190 | 233 | 344 | 577 | 154 | 229 | 30 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 202 | 194 | 39 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 65 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 201 | 233 | 351 | 583 | 149 | 277 | 32 | 3 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 187 | 175 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 61 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 217 | 251 | 366 | 617 | 149 | 280 | 33 | 3 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 408 | 377 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 124 | 6 | 26 | 7 | 191 | 243 | 310 | 554 | 119 | 249 | 30 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers | — | 136 | 125 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 58 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 144 | 189 | 168 | 357 | 24 | 261 | 43 | 4 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Brewers | — | 136 | 121 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 207 | 273 | 256 | 529 | 50 | 301 | 29 | 7 | 239 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 205 | 192 | 34 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 82 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 177 | 214 | 250 | 464 | 73 | 303 | 40 | 4 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK RAW | Helena Brewers | — | 205 | 187 | 47 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 57 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 251 | 303 | 369 | 672 | 118 | 352 | 28 | 7 | 295 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 251 | 246 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 111 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 171 | 181 | 240 | 421 | 69 | 301 | 44 | 1 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 251 | 244 | 57 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 80 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 234 | 249 | 340 | 589 | 107 | 335 | 32 | 2 | 259 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 493 | 464 | 87 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 173 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 188 | 227 | 282 | 510 | 95 | 283 | 35 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 493 | 456 | 109 | 22 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 130 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 239 | 289 | 373 | 662 | 134 | 314 | 26 | 6 | 293 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 529 | 502 | 95 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 202 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 189 | 223 | 251 | 474 | 62 | 300 | 38 | 3 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 529 | 492 | 114 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 141 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 232 | 279 | 309 | 588 | 77 | 309 | 27 | 5 | 265 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 491 | 457 | 93 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 172 | 3 | 31 | 7 | 204 | 249 | 280 | 530 | 77 | 313 | 35 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 491 | 445 | 113 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 37 | 123 | 3 | 31 | 7 | 254 | 315 | 360 | 675 | 106 | 335 | 25 | 8 | 302 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 341 | 311 | 67 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 111 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 215 | 267 | 277 | 544 | 61 | 320 | 33 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 341 | 300 | 76 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 89 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 253 | 327 | 327 | 654 | 73 | 346 | 26 | 9 | 294 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 403 | 377 | 72 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 120 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 191 | 234 | 347 | 581 | 156 | 237 | 30 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 403 | 372 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 22 | 101 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 242 | 291 | 433 | 724 | 191 | 282 | 25 | 5 | 316 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 490 | 465 | 97 | 27 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 158 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 209 | 243 | 361 | 604 | 153 | 284 | 32 | 3 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 490 | 457 | 124 | 27 | 3 | 18 | 24 | 117 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 271 | 315 | 462 | 777 | 190 | 325 | 24 | 5 | 339 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 436 | 82 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 144 | 6 | 30 | 7 | 188 | 239 | 303 | 541 | 115 | 254 | 31 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 471 | 424 | 103 | 20 | 2 | 15 | 34 | 117 | 6 | 30 | 7 | 243 | 308 | 406 | 713 | 163 | 299 | 25 | 7 | 314 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL MLE | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 179 | 166 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 260 | 301 | 561 | 84 | 250 | 16 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL RAW | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 179 | 166 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 260 | 301 | 561 | 84 | 250 | 16 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers | — | 136 | 128 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 58 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 141 | 189 | 164 | 353 | 23 | 255 | 43 | 4 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 205 | 194 | 34 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 82 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 175 | 214 | 247 | 461 | 72 | 294 | 40 | 4 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 251 | 246 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 111 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 171 | 181 | 240 | 421 | 69 | 290 | 44 | 1 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 493 | 466 | 87 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 173 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 187 | 227 | 281 | 509 | 94 | 277 | 35 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 529 | 502 | 95 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 202 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 189 | 223 | 251 | 474 | 62 | 292 | 38 | 3 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 491 | 460 | 93 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 172 | 3 | 31 | 7 | 202 | 249 | 278 | 528 | 76 | 307 | 35 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 341 | 316 | 67 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 111 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 212 | 267 | 272 | 539 | 60 | 304 | 33 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 403 | 379 | 72 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 120 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 190 | 234 | 346 | 579 | 156 | 229 | 30 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 490 | 466 | 97 | 27 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 158 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 208 | 243 | 361 | 603 | 152 | 278 | 32 | 3 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 439 | 82 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 144 | 6 | 30 | 7 | 187 | 239 | 301 | 539 | 114 | 249 | 31 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3989 | 3741 | 723 | 146 | 20 | 57 | 167 | 1360 | 29 | 205 | 57 | 193 | 233 | 289 | 522 | 95 | 283 | 34 | 4 | 216 | 32 | -321 | +18 | +0 | +43 | +86 | -17.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 610 | 117 | 24 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 222 | 5 | 33 | 9 | 192 | 232 | 285 | 518 | 93 | 281 | 34 | 4 | 216 | 32 | -52 | +3 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -2.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 408 PAwOBA .315 → .237 (−77)K% 26.2% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.23% | ÷1.049 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.35% | ÷1.011 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 4.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 1.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.24% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×0.968 | 18.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷0.975 | ×0.840 | ×0.980 | ×0.968 | 5.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.058 | ×0.940 | ×0.980 | ×0.968 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.79% | ÷1.322 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 3.39% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 112, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .315 → .237; ISO .180 → .119; BABIP .301 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 202 PAwOBA .313 → .252 (−62)K% 25.7% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.74% | ÷0.966 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.95% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.99% | ÷1.054 | ×0.930 | ×1.023 | ×1.003 | 16.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.63% | ÷0.898 | ×0.830 | ×1.023 | ×1.003 | 8.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.16% | ÷0.930 | ×0.970 | ×1.023 | ×1.003 | 2.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.04% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.43% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 111, 2B 80, 3B 86, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .313 → .252; ISO .204 → .156; BABIP .303 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 187 PAwOBA .334 → .264 (−70)K% 25.7% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.67% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.81% | ÷1.021 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 3.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.16% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×0.978 | 18.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.29% | ÷1.056 | ×0.910 | ×0.991 | ×0.978 | 9.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.991 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.65% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 4.21% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 93, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .334 → .264; ISO .203 → .152; BABIP .322 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 293 PAwOBA .323 → .248 (−75)K% 24.9% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.91% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.14% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 4.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.49% | ÷0.985 | ×0.940 | ×0.976 | ×0.988 | 15.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.73% | ÷0.947 | ×0.870 | ×0.976 | ×0.988 | 6.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×0.988 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.73% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.77% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .323 → .248; ISO .232 → .157; BABIP .261 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABiloxi Shuckers · 341 PAwOBA .290 → .237 (−52)K% 26.1% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.10% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.006 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.29% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.49% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | ×0.954 | ×1.012 | 24.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.58% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | ×0.954 | ×1.012 | 6.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.880 | ×0.954 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.018 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.75% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 118, 3B 125, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .290 → .237; ISO .073 → .058; BABIP .346 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Carolina Mudcats · 258 PAwOBA .283 → .199 (−84)K% 27.5% → 40.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.52% | ÷0.970 | ×1.420 | — | — | 40.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.43% | ÷0.990 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 3.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.54% | ÷1.066 | ×0.940 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 23.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.59% | ÷1.150 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 4.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.010 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 1.07% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 113, 2B 130, 3B 96, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .283 → .199; ISO .088 → .059; BABIP .353 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AABiloxi Shuckers · 233 PAwOBA .309 → .276 (−32)K% 22.3% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.32% | ÷0.933 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.44% | ÷0.964 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.94% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×1.027 | 22.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.03% | ÷0.918 | ×0.910 | ×1.033 | ×1.027 | 9.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.033 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.58% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.97% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 93, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 87, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .309 → .276; ISO .126 → .110; BABIP .316 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Carolina Mudcats · 529 PAwOBA .260 → .208 (−52)K% 26.7% → 38.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.65% | ÷0.990 | ×1.420 | — | — | 38.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.91% | ÷0.973 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 3.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.64% | ÷1.004 | ×0.940 | ×1.026 | ×1.012 | 24.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.56% | ÷1.034 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.012 | 3.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷0.944 | ×0.800 | ×1.026 | ×1.012 | 0.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.71% | ÷0.959 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 1.62% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .260 → .208; ISO .077 → .060; BABIP .309 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .