Rodrigo Orozco
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A+/INTL2 orgs | 441 | .299/.368/.380 | 1 | 20 | 81 | — | .265/.321/.339 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 515 | .263/.347/.356 | 5 | 22 | 64 | — | .226/.285/.300 |
| 2022 | 27 | INTLPanama | 33 | .185/.290/.222 | 0 | 1 | 44 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | — | 156 | 130 | 35 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 269 | 375 | 423 | 798 | 154 | 306 | 13 | 12 | 351 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | — | 281 | 234 | 64 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 32 | 3 | 20 | 8 | 274 | 386 | 355 | 741 | 81 | 308 | 11 | 14 | 339 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 254 | 223 | 67 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 300 | 368 | 435 | 803 | 135 | 342 | 14 | 9 | 350 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 330 | 284 | 80 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 39 | 52 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 282 | 370 | 373 | 744 | 92 | 338 | 16 | 12 | 334 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 424 | 378 | 115 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 53 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 304 | 375 | 389 | 764 | 85 | 352 | 12 | 9 | 345 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | INTL | Panama | — | 17 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 176 | 176 | 176 | 353 | 200 | 12 | 0 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 110 | 95 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 305 | 389 | 484 | 873 | 179 | 355 | 17 | 10 | 380 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 307 | 274 | 72 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 54 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 263 | 340 | 328 | 668 | 66 | 320 | 18 | 10 | 307 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | INTL | Panama | — | 98 | 83 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 217 | 323 | 301 | 624 | 84 | 227 | 8 | 13 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL | Panama | — | 33 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 290 | 222 | 513 | 37 | 217 | 12 | 12 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 156 | 136 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 184 | 270 | 272 | 542 | 88 | 208 | 17 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 281 | 246 | 46 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 39 | 3 | 20 | 8 | 187 | 278 | 232 | 510 | 45 | 213 | 14 | 10 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 254 | 232 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 246 | 291 | 345 | 636 | 99 | 289 | 20 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 330 | 298 | 74 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 74 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 248 | 309 | 326 | 634 | 77 | 310 | 22 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 424 | 389 | 103 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 77 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 265 | 321 | 339 | 660 | 75 | 327 | 18 | 7 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 110 | 98 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 265 | 333 | 429 | 762 | 163 | 318 | 23 | 7 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 307 | 284 | 60 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 69 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 211 | 268 | 254 | 521 | 42 | 270 | 22 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 156 | 136 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 184 | 270 | 272 | 542 | 88 | 218 | 17 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Blue Jays | — | 156 | 130 | 35 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 269 | 375 | 423 | 798 | 154 | 306 | 13 | 12 | 351 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 281 | 246 | 46 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 39 | 3 | 20 | 8 | 187 | 278 | 232 | 510 | 45 | 217 | 14 | 10 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Blue Jays | — | 281 | 234 | 64 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 32 | 3 | 20 | 8 | 274 | 386 | 355 | 741 | 81 | 308 | 11 | 14 | 339 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 254 | 232 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 246 | 291 | 345 | 636 | 99 | 302 | 20 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK RAW | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 254 | 223 | 67 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 300 | 368 | 435 | 803 | 135 | 342 | 14 | 9 | 350 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 330 | 298 | 74 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 74 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 248 | 309 | 326 | 634 | 77 | 323 | 22 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 330 | 284 | 80 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 39 | 52 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 282 | 370 | 373 | 744 | 92 | 338 | 16 | 12 | 334 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 405 | 108 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 80 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 267 | 322 | 341 | 663 | 74 | 330 | 18 | 7 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 441 | 395 | 118 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 55 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 299 | 368 | 380 | 747 | 81 | 345 | 12 | 9 | 338 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 515 | 471 | 105 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 117 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 223 | 282 | 295 | 577 | 72 | 285 | 23 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 515 | 452 | 119 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 56 | 81 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 263 | 347 | 356 | 703 | 93 | 308 | 16 | 11 | 319 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL MLE | Panama | — | 33 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 290 | 222 | 513 | 37 | 217 | 12 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL RAW | Panama | — | 33 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 290 | 222 | 513 | 37 | 217 | 12 | 12 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 156 | 139 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 180 | 270 | 266 | 536 | 86 | 208 | 17 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 281 | 248 | 46 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 39 | 3 | 20 | 8 | 185 | 278 | 230 | 508 | 44 | 213 | 14 | 10 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 254 | 237 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 241 | 291 | 338 | 629 | 97 | 289 | 20 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 330 | 301 | 74 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 74 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 246 | 309 | 322 | 631 | 76 | 310 | 22 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 405 | 108 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 80 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 267 | 322 | 341 | 663 | 74 | 327 | 18 | 7 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 515 | 471 | 105 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 117 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 223 | 282 | 295 | 577 | 72 | 283 | 23 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2010 | 1815 | 420 | 81 | 10 | 11 | 152 | 390 | 12 | 80 | 37 | 231 | 295 | 305 | 600 | 74 | 287 | 19 | 8 | 261 | 63 | -88 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +44 | -3.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 136 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 126 | 4 | 26 | 12 | 232 | 295 | 307 | 602 | 75 | 287 | 19 | 8 | 261 | 63 | -29 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 307 PAwOBA .301 → .235 (−65)K% 17.6% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.59% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.42% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.36% | ÷1.014 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 23.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.097 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.079 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.337 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.55% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 167, 1B 103, 2B 119, 3B 116, K 91, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .301 → .235; ISO .066 → .045; BABIP .320 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 110 PAwOBA .377 → .320 (−56)K% 17.3% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.27% | ÷0.965 | ×1.290 | — | — | 23.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.050 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 7.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.82% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.048 | 22.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.58% | ÷1.044 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.048 | 5.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.95% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.048 | 3.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 2.26% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .377 → .320; ISO .179 → .154; BABIP .355 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 424 PAwOBA .335 → .293 (−43)K% 12.5% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.979 | ×1.420 | — | — | 18.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.20% | ÷1.011 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 6.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.08% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×0.998 | 24.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.08% | ÷0.977 | ×0.960 | ×1.014 | ×0.998 | 7.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.92% | ÷1.005 | ×0.810 | ×1.014 | ×0.998 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.31% | ÷1.147 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.24% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 101, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .335 → .293; ISO .085 → .077; BABIP .352 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ALansing Lugnuts · 330 PAwOBA .329 → .276 (−53)K% 15.8% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.76% | ÷0.960 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.82% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.30% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | — | 23.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.19% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | — | 6.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | — | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.43% | ÷0.894 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.39% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .329 → .276; ISO .092 → .075; BABIP .338 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKBluefield Blue Jays · 254 PAwOBA .341 → .273 (−68)K% 13.8% → 19.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.78% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 19.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.995 | 6.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.049 | ×0.995 | 21.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.049 | ×0.995 | 6.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.049 | ×0.995 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.995 | 1.69% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .341 → .273; ISO .135 → .106; BABIP .342 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 DSLDSL Blue Jays · 281 PAwOBA .332 → .234 (−98)K% 11.4% → 13.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.39% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 9.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 17.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 2.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.46% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .332 → .234; ISO .081 → .049; BABIP .308 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 DSLDSL Blue Jays · 156 PAwOBA .344 → .240 (−104)K% 13.5% → 16.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.46% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 8.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 13.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.87% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .344 → .240; ISO .154 → .095; BABIP .306 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .