Keegan Thompson

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 197 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	44	0	58	2.81	3.34	31.9%	12.1%	0.8	K 29.6% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.54
2025	30	AAACHC	33	5	64	4.50	3.10	29.5%	8.9%	—	K 25.4% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.31
2026	31	MIX2 levels	30	15	85	5.70	4.51	16.8%	9.2%	0.4	K 14.8% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.54
2027PROJ	32	MLBCOL	130	0	137	4.61	4.63	19.0%	8.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBCOL	44	0	46	4.79	4.91	18.1%	9.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBCOL	35	0	37	5.04	5.21	17.2%	9.9%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%30

Whiff%24

FB Velo19

xwOBA vs10

CompsRudy Gonzalez (age 34) · Chris Jakubauskas (age 32) · Ivan Maldonado (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.63

K%19.0%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP137

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2525

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p3019.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.407

CT+2.5 (32%)

SL+1.3 (13%)

FB (37%)

SI (2%)

CU (15%)

CH-0.6 (2%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	130	532	115	34	9	100%	5.2	17.1%	7.2%	9.9%	2.2%	3.61	3.79	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	130	532	115	34	9	100%	5.2	21.6%	6.4%	15.2%	1.7%	3.61	3.02	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	10	39	13	1	1	100%	3.3	33.3%	2.6%	30.8%	2.6%	3.60	2.02	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	10	39	13	1	1	100%	3.3	33.3%	2.6%	30.8%	2.6%	3.60	2.10	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	10	68	296	71	35	9	28%	1.9	23.3%	11.9%	11.4%	3.2%	2.65	4.37	+0.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	10	68	296	71	35	9	28%	1.9	24.0%	11.8%	12.2%	3.0%	2.65	4.28	+0.2
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	117	494	112	44	16	60%	3.9	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	3.4%	3.76	4.22	+0.9
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	18	117	494	112	44	16	60%	3.9	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.2%	3.76	4.09	+1.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	271	66	42	10	0%	1.5	22.3%	14.6%	7.6%	4.1%	6.44	5.34	-0.5
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	59	271	66	42	10	0%	1.5	24.4%	15.5%	8.9%	3.7%	6.44	5.21	-0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	58	232	74	28	6	0%	1.3	29.6%	11.6%	18.0%	2.7%	2.81	3.54	+0.7
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	58	232	74	28	6	0%	1.3	29.6%	11.6%	18.0%	2.7%	2.81	3.54	+0.7
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	58	232	74	28	6	0%	1.3	31.9%	12.1%	19.8%	2.6%	2.81	3.34	+0.8
2025	30	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	33	5	64	281	83	25	7	15%	1.9	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	2.4%	4.50	3.31	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	33	5	64	281	83	25	7	15%	1.9	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	2.4%	4.50	3.31	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	33	5	64	281	83	25	7	15%	1.9	29.5%	8.9%	20.6%	2.5%	4.50	3.10	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	15	85	400	67	37	11	50%	2.8	14.8%	8.4%	6.4%	3.0%	5.70	4.54	+0.4
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	15	85	400	67	37	11	50%	2.8	14.8%	8.4%	6.4%	3.0%	5.70	4.54	+0.4
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	15	85	400	67	37	11	50%	2.8	16.8%	9.2%	7.5%	2.8%	5.70	4.51	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			109	23	239	1037	236	112	31	21%	2.2	22.8%	10.8%	12.0%	3.0%	3.87	4.22	+0.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	COL	130	0	137	578	110	52	17	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.9%	10.0%	3.0%	4.61	4.63	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	COL	120	0	126	531	96	50	17	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	3.2%	4.79	4.91	-0.5
2029	34	MLB MLE	COL	109	0	114	483	83	48	17	0%	1.0	17.2%	9.9%	7.3%	3.5%	5.04	5.21	-0.8
2028	33	MLB CTX	COL	44	0	46	194	35	18	6	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	3.2%	4.79	4.91	-0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	COL	35	0	37	156	27	15	6	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.9%	7.3%	3.5%	5.04	5.21	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		188	23	322	1388	298	146	43	12%	1.7	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.14	4.31	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		117	14	200	861	185	91	27	12%	1.7	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.14	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		240	76	591	2545	542	241	75	32%	2.5	21.3%	9.5%	11.9%	3.0%	4.13	4.12	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	26	200	862	184	82	25	32%	2.5	21.3%	9.5%	11.9%	3.0%	4.13	4.12	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keegan Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	19.0%	8.9%	3.0%	—	5.05	17.7%	8.1%	240	+0.42	—	—	—
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	69
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	66
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	66
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	65
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	65
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	65
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	65
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	64
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	64
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	2.92	432	63
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	63
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	63
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	62
Mike Fyhrie R 2002 · 3.86 FIP	32	SW	3.86	13.7%	9.0%	1.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	173	62
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	62
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	62
Jesse Estrada R 2016 · 3.80 FIP	32	SU	3.80	10.1%	4.0%	1.9%	.285	4.89	11.2%	5.1%	180	+1.09	3.80	257	62
Josh A. Smith R 2020 · 4.22 FIP	32	SU	4.22	14.9%	7.4%	2.6%	.330	3.23	19.4%	9.4%	33	-0.99	2.91	598	61
Hector Velázquez R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	32	SU	3.81	19.2%	8.3%	2.3%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.75	536	61
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	88	20.0%	10.0%	1.21	4.44
Bill Fleming ('40-'46, 1 WAR*)	2.2	74	19.1%*	9.6%*	1.22*	4.54*
Art Herring ('29-'47, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	18.3%*	9.0%*	1.16*	4.44*
Darrell Jackson ('78-'82, 3 WAR*)	2.1	82	21.0%*	10.4%*	1.05*	4.43*
Alan Benes ('03)	2.5	99	18.6%	10.2%	1.07	4.59
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Luis Ortiz ('25)	1.6	109	19.8%	10.1%	1.16	4.05