Jackson Stephens

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	MIX4 levels	23	5	45	2.78	2.48	24.1%	6.4%	1.1	K 21.9% · BB 5.7% · FIP 2.73
2024	30	MIX2 levels	32	1	50	3.78	3.18	23.4%	8.3%	0.8	K 21.0% · BB 7.6% · FIP 3.22
2025	31	AAAATL	22	4	49	2.57	2.57	22.2%	7.9%	—	K 19.1% · BB 7.1% · FIP 2.72
2027PROJ	33	MLBATL	51	0	54	4.17	4.16	19.7%	7.3%	0.2
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBATL	3	0	3	4.35	4.46	18.8%	7.8%	0.0
2029PROJ1% MLB	35	MLBATL	—	—	0	4.62	4.80	17.9%	8.4%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

xwOBA vs73

Whiff%51

K%43

FB Velo36

CompsChris Jakubauskas (age 32) · Mitch Lively (age 31) · Ivan Maldonado (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.17

FIP4.16

K%19.7%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p5125.5%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

CT (10%)

SL (4%)

SI (25%)

CU (24%)

CH-1.1 (10%)

FB-1.2 (53%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	26	26	145	616	97	30	11	100%	5.6	12.1%	5.6%	6.5%	2.1%	2.97	3.96	—
2015	21	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	26	26	145	616	97	30	11	100%	5.6	15.7%	4.9%	10.9%	1.8%	2.97	3.37	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	27	26	151	638	131	41	7	96%	5.6	16.6%	7.1%	9.6%	1.4%	3.33	3.37	—
2016	22	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	27	26	151	638	131	41	7	96%	5.6	20.5%	6.4%	14.1%	1.1%	3.33	2.78	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	29	164	717	131	60	22	88%	5.0	16.4%	8.7%	7.7%	3.1%	4.88	4.54	+0.7
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	29	164	717	131	60	22	88%	5.0	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	3.1%	4.88	4.34	+1.1
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	7	82	375	68	28	11	16%	1.8	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	2.9%	5.14	4.24	+0.3
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	7	82	375	68	28	11	16%	1.8	18.1%	7.5%	10.7%	2.9%	5.14	4.21	+0.3
2019	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	47	2	84	375	80	36	6	4%	1.8	18.8%	10.1%	8.7%	1.8%	5.14	3.80	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	47	2	84	375	80	36	6	4%	1.8	21.3%	9.6%	11.7%	1.6%	5.14	3.41	—
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	2	60	256	54	19	3	5%	1.5	20.0%	8.1%	11.9%	1.3%	3.62	3.14	+1.0
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	2	60	256	54	19	3	5%	1.5	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	1.2%	3.62	2.90	+1.2
2023	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	5	45	187	45	12	2	22%	2.0	21.9%	5.7%	16.3%	1.4%	2.78	2.73	+1.0
2023	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	5	45	187	45	12	2	22%	2.0	24.1%	6.4%	17.6%	1.1%	2.78	2.48	+1.1
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	50	218	51	18	4	3%	1.6	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	1.7%	3.78	3.22	+0.8
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	50	218	51	18	4	3%	1.6	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	1.7%	3.78	3.22	+0.8
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	1	50	218	51	18	4	3%	1.6	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	1.8%	3.78	3.18	+0.8
2025	31	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	22	4	49	189	42	15	1	18%	2.2	19.1%	7.1%	12.0%	0.6%	2.57	2.72	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	22	4	49	189	42	15	1	18%	2.2	19.1%	7.1%	12.0%	0.6%	2.57	2.72	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	22	4	49	189	42	15	1	18%	2.2	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	0.5%	2.57	2.57	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			83	5	132	588	114	46	18	6%	1.6	19.4%	7.8%	11.6%	3.1%	4.15	4.19	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	ATL	51	0	54	228	45	17	6	0%	1.1	19.7%	7.3%	12.4%	2.6%	4.17	4.16	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	ATL	46	0	49	206	39	16	6	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.35	4.46	+0.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	ATL	42	0	44	185	33	15	6	0%	1.0	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	3.2%	4.62	4.80	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	ATL	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	18.8%	7.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.35	4.46	+0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	3.2%	4.62	4.80	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	5	135	601	116	47	18	6%	1.6	19.4%	7.8%	11.5%	3.1%	4.15	4.13	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		127	7	200	888	171	69	27	6%	1.6	19.4%	7.8%	11.5%	3.1%	4.15	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		295	102	831	3571	607	270	73	35%	2.8	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	2.1%	3.91	3.75	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	25	200	859	146	65	18	35%	2.8	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	2.1%	3.91	3.75	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Stephens (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	19.7%	7.3%	2.6%	—	4.62	18.4%	10.3%	92	+0.46	—	—	—
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	72
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	70
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	70
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	68
Tim Dillard R 2016 · 3.13 FIP	33	SU	3.13	22.6%	8.2%	1.7%	.358	4.14	13.7%	6.9%	250	+1.01	2.92	432	68
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	68
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	68
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	66
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	66
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	66
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	65
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	65
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	65
Mike Fyhrie R 2002 · 3.86 FIP	32	SW	3.86	13.7%	9.0%	1.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	173	65
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	64
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	63
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	62
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	62
Giovanni Carrara R 2001 · 4.06 FIP	33	SU	4.06	20.1%	6.0%	3.5%	.249	4.28	15.7%	7.9%	173	+0.22	2.50	462	61
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	46	19.1%	8.4%	1.15	4.26
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*