Kyle Johnson
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 24 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 432 | .259/.347/.384 | 4 | 12 | 69 | — | .225/.292/.324 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA/A+2 orgs | 160 | .199/.276/.291 | 1 | 7 | 18 | — | .154/.224/.224 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 280 | .213/.295/.305 | 3 | 5 | 28 | — | .171/.237/.238 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 22 | ROK | Orem Owlz | — | 113 | 97 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 289 | 367 | 381 | 748 | 93 | 310 | 8 | 8 | 330 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 214 | 187 | 52 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 35 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 278 | 351 | 380 | 731 | 102 | 320 | 16 | 8 | 323 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 336 | 274 | 81 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 44 | 54 | 11 | 32 | 6 | 296 | 413 | 401 | 815 | 106 | 359 | 16 | 13 | 366 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Mets | — | 414 | 359 | 93 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 42 | 80 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 259 | 348 | 384 | 732 | 125 | 318 | 19 | 10 | 328 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 18 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 333 | 375 | 708 | 125 | 308 | 17 | 11 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 106 | 94 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 223 | 298 | 340 | 639 | 117 | 286 | 24 | 5 | 287 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 54 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 149 | 231 | 191 | 422 | 43 | 241 | 35 | 9 | 196 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 84 | 78 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 244 | 298 | 333 | 631 | 90 | 305 | 21 | 6 | 287 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Mets | — | 196 | 171 | 34 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 50 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 199 | 294 | 292 | 586 | 94 | 267 | 26 | 10 | 271 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | Orem Owlz | — | 113 | 101 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 238 | 294 | 317 | 610 | 79 | 246 | 12 | 4 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 214 | 191 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 51 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 220 | 284 | 298 | 582 | 79 | 271 | 24 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 336 | 288 | 73 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 73 | 11 | 32 | 6 | 253 | 347 | 344 | 690 | 90 | 320 | 22 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 414 | 373 | 84 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 96 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 225 | 292 | 324 | 616 | 99 | 280 | 23 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 106 | 95 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 179 | 250 | 274 | 524 | 95 | 236 | 31 | 4 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 54 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 104 | 173 | 125 | 298 | 21 | 206 | 50 | 7 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 84 | 79 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 203 | 250 | 278 | 528 | 76 | 259 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 196 | 177 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 57 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 158 | 232 | 220 | 452 | 62 | 221 | 29 | 7 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | Orem Owlz | — | 113 | 101 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 238 | 294 | 317 | 610 | 79 | 264 | 12 | 4 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK RAW | Orem Owlz | — | 113 | 97 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 289 | 367 | 381 | 748 | 93 | 310 | 8 | 8 | 330 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 550 | 479 | 117 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 124 | 15 | 44 | 11 | 244 | 326 | 332 | 658 | 88 | 317 | 23 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 550 | 461 | 133 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 61 | 89 | 15 | 44 | 11 | 289 | 389 | 393 | 782 | 104 | 343 | 16 | 11 | 349 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 390 | 87 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 101 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 223 | 289 | 321 | 609 | 97 | 289 | 23 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 432 | 375 | 97 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 83 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 259 | 347 | 384 | 731 | 125 | 317 | 19 | 10 | 327 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 160 | 144 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 60 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 146 | 212 | 215 | 427 | 69 | 233 | 38 | 4 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 160 | 141 | 28 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 44 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 199 | 276 | 291 | 566 | 92 | 273 | 28 | 6 | 256 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 280 | 257 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 81 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 167 | 230 | 230 | 460 | 62 | 234 | 29 | 6 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 280 | 249 | 53 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 68 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 213 | 295 | 305 | 600 | 92 | 279 | 24 | 9 | 276 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | Orem Owlz | — | 113 | 104 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 231 | 294 | 308 | 601 | 77 | 246 | 12 | 4 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 550 | 487 | 117 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 124 | 15 | 44 | 11 | 240 | 326 | 326 | 652 | 86 | 301 | 23 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 393 | 87 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 101 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 221 | 289 | 318 | 607 | 97 | 280 | 23 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 160 | 147 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 60 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 143 | 212 | 211 | 422 | 68 | 226 | 38 | 4 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 280 | 257 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 81 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 167 | 230 | 230 | 460 | 62 | 232 | 29 | 6 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1535 | 1371 | 292 | 65 | 8 | 11 | 101 | 379 | 34 | 75 | 27 | 213 | 284 | 296 | 580 | 83 | 282 | 25 | 7 | 255 | 59 | -75 | +4 | +0 | +5 | +33 | -3.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 124 | 28 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 160 | 14 | 32 | 11 | 213 | 284 | 298 | 581 | 84 | 282 | 25 | 7 | 255 | 59 | -32 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AABinghamton Mets · 196 PAwOBA .266 → .208 (−57)K% 25.5% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.51% | ÷1.062 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.034 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 15.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.26% | ÷1.070 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 6.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.65% | ÷1.085 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.16% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 107, 2B 114, 3B 91, K 112, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .266 → .208; ISO .094 → .069; BABIP .267 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAALas Vegas 51s · 84 PAwOBA .279 → .214 (−65)K% 21.4% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.971 | ×1.290 | — | — | 28.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.95% | ÷0.962 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 4.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷0.994 | ×0.900 | ×0.983 | ×1.003 | 20.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.128 | ×0.810 | ×0.983 | ×1.003 | 4.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.810 | ×0.983 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.088 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 1.20% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 126, 3B 96, K 94, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .279 → .214; ISO .090 → .059; BABIP .305 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAALas Vegas 51s · 106 PAwOBA .284 → .223 (−62)K% 23.6% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.58% | ÷0.977 | ×1.290 | — | — | 31.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.72% | ÷1.010 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 3.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.72% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 4.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷0.983 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 15.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.59% | ÷1.042 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 8.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.061 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷1.099 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 1.05% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 97, 2B 108, 3B 112, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .284 → .223; ISO .117 → .081; BABIP .286 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+St. Lucie Mets · 54 PAwOBA .195 → .139 (−56)K% 35.2% → 50.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.19% | ÷0.992 | ×1.420 | — | — | 50.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.26% | ÷1.023 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.968 | 6.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷1.049 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 15.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.055 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.968 | 6.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.269 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 110, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .195 → .139; ISO .043 → .031; BABIP .241 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AABinghamton Mets · 414 PAwOBA .322 → .269 (−54)K% 19.3% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.32% | ÷1.011 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.90% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.51% | ÷0.990 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 19.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.96% | ÷1.050 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.036 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.009 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.11% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 107, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .322 → .269; ISO .125 → .101; BABIP .318 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ASavannah Sand Gnats · 336 PAwOBA .360 → .303 (−56)K% 16.1% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.07% | ÷0.986 | ×1.340 | — | — | 21.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.10% | ÷0.960 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 8.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.27% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 2.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.82% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×0.980 | 24.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.73% | ÷0.980 | ×0.820 | ×1.011 | ×0.980 | 6.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.36% | ÷0.902 | ×0.940 | ×1.011 | ×0.980 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.91% | ÷0.793 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 0.92% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 59, 1B 102, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 97, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .360 → .303; ISO .106 → .098; BABIP .359 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+St. Lucie Mets · 214 PAwOBA .321 → .258 (−63)K% 16.4% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.36% | ÷0.979 | ×1.420 | — | — | 23.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.94% | ÷0.949 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 6.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.87% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 1.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | 22.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.959 | ×0.960 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | 5.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷1.114 | ×0.810 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.97% | ÷1.370 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 1.25% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 123, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .321 → .258; ISO .102 → .076; BABIP .320 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ROKOrem Owlz · 113 PAwOBA .322 → .250 (−72)K% 8.0% → 11.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.96% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 11.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.965 | 4.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.65% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.032 | ×0.965 | 19.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.032 | ×0.965 | 4.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.032 | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.965 | 0.82% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .322 → .250; ISO .093 → .070; BABIP .310 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .