Jorge Saez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 26 | AATrenton Thund… | 240 | .249/.357/.423 | 9 | 1 | 81 | — | .213/.294/.346 |
| 2018 | 27 | AATrenton Thund… | 173 | .237/.326/.362 | 5 | 2 | 59 | — | .210/.279/.306 |
| 2019 | 28 | AATrenton Thund… | 130 | .161/.271/.321 | 5 | 0 | 20 | — | .127/.202/.246 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | — | 134 | 110 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 338 | 327 | 666 | 127 | 213 | 14 | 17 | 309 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 177 | 158 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 316 | 348 | 664 | 101 | 308 | 22 | 8 | 298 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 141 | 121 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 350 | 372 | 722 | 124 | 322 | 23 | 13 | 327 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 166 | 134 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 291 | 410 | 425 | 835 | 134 | 343 | 17 | 16 | 368 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 251 | 221 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 266 | 276 | 542 | 100 | 218 | 22 | 10 | 249 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 140 | 125 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 232 | 294 | 432 | 726 | 200 | 280 | 28 | 7 | 312 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 72 | 67 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 313 | 361 | 612 | 973 | 299 | 349 | 25 | 7 | 421 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 240 | 201 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 249 | 357 | 423 | 780 | 174 | 306 | 26 | 14 | 344 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 173 | 152 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 237 | 326 | 362 | 687 | 125 | 292 | 24 | 10 | 312 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 130 | 112 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 271 | 321 | 593 | 161 | 183 | 28 | 13 | 271 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 134 | 119 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 151 | 241 | 235 | 476 | 84 | 169 | 20 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 177 | 163 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 160 | 213 | 215 | 427 | 55 | 229 | 31 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 141 | 126 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 271 | 278 | 549 | 87 | 286 | 33 | 10 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 166 | 143 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 335 | 364 | 699 | 112 | 299 | 23 | 10 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 251 | 227 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 128 | 202 | 198 | 400 | 70 | 183 | 33 | 8 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 140 | 129 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 186 | 228 | 302 | 530 | 116 | 251 | 35 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 72 | 68 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 264 | 456 | 720 | 235 | 296 | 38 | 6 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 240 | 211 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 76 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 294 | 346 | 640 | 133 | 280 | 32 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 173 | 157 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 51 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 210 | 279 | 306 | 585 | 96 | 279 | 29 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 130 | 118 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 127 | 202 | 246 | 447 | 119 | 156 | 36 | 8 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 134 | 119 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 151 | 241 | 235 | 476 | 84 | 176 | 20 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK RAW | GCL Blue Jays | — | 134 | 110 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 338 | 327 | 666 | 127 | 213 | 14 | 17 | 309 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 177 | 163 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 160 | 213 | 215 | 427 | 55 | 227 | 31 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | ROK RAW | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 177 | 158 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 316 | 348 | 664 | 101 | 308 | 22 | 8 | 298 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 269 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 84 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 219 | 302 | 312 | 615 | 93 | 299 | 27 | 10 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 307 | 255 | 69 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 271 | 382 | 400 | 782 | 129 | 333 | 20 | 15 | 349 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 251 | 227 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 128 | 202 | 198 | 400 | 70 | 188 | 33 | 8 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 251 | 221 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 266 | 276 | 542 | 100 | 218 | 22 | 10 | 249 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 212 | 197 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 76 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 198 | 240 | 355 | 596 | 157 | 270 | 36 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 212 | 192 | 50 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 15 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 260 | 317 | 495 | 812 | 234 | 304 | 27 | 7 | 349 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 240 | 211 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 76 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 294 | 346 | 640 | 133 | 286 | 32 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA RAW | Trenton Thunder | — | 240 | 201 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 249 | 357 | 423 | 780 | 174 | 306 | 26 | 14 | 344 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 173 | 157 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 51 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 210 | 279 | 306 | 585 | 96 | 282 | 29 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA RAW | Trenton Thunder | — | 173 | 152 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 237 | 326 | 362 | 687 | 125 | 292 | 24 | 10 | 312 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 130 | 118 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 127 | 202 | 246 | 447 | 119 | 162 | 36 | 8 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA RAW | Trenton Thunder | — | 130 | 112 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 271 | 321 | 593 | 161 | 183 | 28 | 13 | 271 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 134 | 119 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 151 | 241 | 235 | 476 | 84 | 169 | 20 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 177 | 164 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 159 | 213 | 213 | 426 | 55 | 229 | 31 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 272 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 84 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 302 | 309 | 611 | 92 | 293 | 27 | 10 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 251 | 228 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 127 | 202 | 197 | 399 | 70 | 183 | 33 | 8 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 212 | 199 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 76 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 240 | 352 | 592 | 156 | 266 | 36 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 240 | 214 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 76 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 294 | 341 | 635 | 131 | 280 | 32 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 173 | 156 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 51 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 212 | 279 | 308 | 587 | 96 | 279 | 29 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 130 | 118 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 127 | 202 | 246 | 447 | 119 | 156 | 36 | 8 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1624 | 1461 | 264 | 49 | 3 | 31 | 130 | 500 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 181 | 252 | 282 | 534 | 101 | 245 | 31 | 8 | 241 | 49 | -98 | +0 | +0 | +29 | +35 | -3.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 105 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 52 | 200 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 179 | 251 | 279 | 530 | 99 | 244 | 31 | 8 | 241 | 49 | -39 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AATrenton Thunder · 130 PAwOBA .266 → .198 (−68)K% 28.5% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.46% | ÷0.956 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.08% | ÷0.999 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 8.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.984 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 11.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 3.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.937 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 5.19% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 108, 3B 87, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .266 → .198; ISO .161 → .118; BABIP .183 → .156. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AATrenton Thunder · 173 PAwOBA .306 → .255 (−51)K% 24.3% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.28% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.40% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 7.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.55% | ÷0.954 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×0.968 | 24.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×1.005 | ×0.968 | 2.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.944 | ×0.950 | ×1.005 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.034 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 3.32% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 108, 3B 89, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .306 → .255; ISO .125 → .091; BABIP .292 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AATrenton Thunder · 240 PAwOBA .343 → .288 (−55)K% 26.2% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.25% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.75% | ÷0.979 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 9.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.42% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.91% | ÷1.020 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×0.978 | 22.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷0.936 | ×0.860 | ×1.004 | ×0.978 | 5.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.004 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.52% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 5.18% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .343 → .288; ISO .174 → .144; BABIP .306 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 140 PAwOBA .308 → .233 (−74)K% 27.9% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.86% | ÷0.969 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.60% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 17.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 6.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.950 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.292 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.16% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 158, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 106, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .308 → .233; ISO .200 → .129; BABIP .280 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 72 PAwOBA .408 → .308 (−101)K% 25.0% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.955 | ×1.420 | — | — | 37.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.94% | ÷1.038 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.968 | 4.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.53% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 22.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.064 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.968 | 3.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.24% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 11.43% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 108, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 91, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .408 → .308; ISO .299 → .236; BABIP .349 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 251 PAwOBA .246 → .185 (−61)K% 22.3% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.31% | ÷0.953 | ×1.420 | — | — | 33.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.96% | ÷0.974 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.978 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.978 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.55% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 12.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.063 | ×0.960 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 5.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷0.989 | ×0.810 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.059 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 1.48% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 108, 2B 113, 3B 98, K 91, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .246 → .185; ISO .100 → .074; BABIP .218 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ALansing Lugnuts · 166 PAwOBA .368 → .304 (−64)K% 16.9% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.87% | ÷1.017 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.66% | ÷1.038 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 10.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.53% | ÷0.968 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×0.980 | 22.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.43% | ÷1.042 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×0.980 | 7.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.135 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×0.980 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.89% | ÷0.872 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 1.70% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 94, 2B 108, 3B 127, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .368 → .304; ISO .134 → .114; BABIP .343 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 141 PAwOBA .321 → .251 (−71)K% 23.4% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.40% | ÷1.016 | ×1.420 | — | — | 32.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.48% | ÷0.979 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 10.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.86% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×0.988 | 21.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.68% | ÷1.083 | ×0.960 | ×0.980 | ×0.988 | 4.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.980 | ×0.988 | 1.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.309 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 162, 1B 96, 2B 117, 3B 80, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .321 → .251; ISO .124 → .089; BABIP .322 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).