Juan Kelly

Pos1B

B/TS/R

Born1994-07-16

Age (2027)33

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTLLAST SEASON 2019

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2017	23	A+TOR	545	.272/.347/.412	10	1	70	—	.230/.284/.341
2018	24	AA/INTL2 orgs	374	.215/.315/.385	13	2	71	—	.203/.277/.359
2019	25	INTLLeones del Ca…	34	.100/.156/.200	1	0	-9	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	117	100	17	3	0	0	14	19	1	2	1	170	278	200	478	30	207	16	12	231	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	270	213	54	8	1	2	52	30	2	14	2	254	404	329	733	75	286	11	19	343	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	—	212	188	54	10	4	0	21	36	2	1	0	287	365	383	748	96	353	17	10	338	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	71	63	18	7	0	3	8	15	0	2	0	286	366	540	906	254	333	21	11	395	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	548	475	130	35	6	12	57	113	8	11	0	274	361	448	810	175	330	21	10	356	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	47	46	13	0	0	1	1	10	0	1	0	283	298	348	646	65	343	21	2	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	545	481	131	29	4	10	51	111	4	1	3	272	347	412	759	139	329	20	9	335	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	334	290	64	15	0	13	40	89	2	2	3	221	319	407	726	186	268	27	12	324	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	40	35	6	1	0	0	5	12	0	0	1	171	275	200	475	29	261	30	12	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	34	30	3	0	0	1	2	9	0	0	0	100	156	200	356	100	95	26	6	155	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	117	104	12	2	0	0	10	23	1	2	1	115	200	135	335	19	136	20	9	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	270	229	38	5	1	1	36	37	2	14	2	166	285	210	494	44	185	14	13	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	212	196	41	7	3	0	13	52	2	1	0	209	265	276	541	66	275	25	6	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	71	65	14	5	0	2	6	21	0	2	0	215	282	385	666	169	277	30	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	548	494	107	28	6	9	38	163	8	11	0	217	283	352	636	136	288	30	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	545	499	115	28	3	7	33	156	4	1	3	230	284	341	624	110	305	29	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	334	301	61	14	0	11	29	105	2	2	3	203	277	359	636	156	264	31	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	117	104	12	2	0	0	10	23	1	2	1	115	200	135	335	19	146	20	9	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	117	100	17	3	0	0	14	19	1	2	1	170	278	200	478	30	207	16	12	231	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	270	229	38	5	1	1	36	37	2	14	2	166	285	210	494	44	193	14	13	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	270	213	54	8	1	2	52	30	2	14	2	254	404	329	733	75	286	11	19	343	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	212	196	41	7	3	0	13	52	2	1	0	209	265	276	541	66	283	25	6	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	—	212	188	54	10	4	0	21	36	2	1	0	287	365	383	748	96	353	17	10	338	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	71	65	14	5	0	2	6	21	0	2	0	215	282	385	666	169	286	30	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	—	71	63	18	7	0	3	8	15	0	2	0	286	366	540	906	254	333	21	11	395	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	595	537	116	30	6	10	42	177	8	12	0	216	283	350	633	134	296	30	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	595	521	143	35	6	13	58	123	8	12	0	274	356	440	796	165	331	21	10	351	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	545	499	115	28	3	7	33	156	4	1	3	230	284	341	624	110	314	29	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	545	481	131	29	4	10	51	111	4	1	3	272	347	412	759	139	329	20	9	335	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	374	337	68	15	0	12	33	118	2	2	4	202	277	353	630	151	268	32	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	374	325	70	16	0	13	45	101	2	2	4	215	315	385	699	169	268	27	12	314	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	INTL MLE	Leones del Caracas	—	34	30	3	0	0	1	2	9	0	0	0	100	156	200	356	100	95	26	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	INTL RAW	Leones del Caracas	—	34	30	3	0	0	1	2	9	0	0	0	100	156	200	356	100	95	26	6	155	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	117	105	12	2	0	0	10	23	1	2	1	114	200	133	333	19	136	20	9	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	270	230	38	5	1	1	36	37	2	14	2	165	285	209	493	43	185	14	13	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	212	195	41	7	3	0	13	52	2	1	0	210	265	277	542	67	275	25	6	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	71	65	14	5	0	2	6	21	0	2	0	215	282	385	666	169	277	30	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	595	540	116	30	6	10	42	177	8	12	0	215	283	348	631	133	288	30	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	545	503	115	28	3	7	33	156	4	1	3	229	284	338	622	109	305	29	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	374	336	68	15	0	12	33	118	2	2	4	202	277	354	631	152	264	32	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	2218	1997	407	92	13	33	175	593	19	34	10	204	274	312	587	109	268	27	8	256	60	-107	+3	+0	-40	+48	-9.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	120	27	4	10	51	174	6	10	3	205	275	316	592	111	270	27	8	256	60	-31	+1	+0	-12	+14	-2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 334 PAwOBA .318 → .277 (−41)K% 26.6% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.65%	÷1.033	×1.220	—	—	31.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.98%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×1.012	8.83%
HBP% /PA	0.60%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.52%
Singles /BIP	17.91%	÷0.995	×0.970	×1.038	×1.012	18.35%
Doubles /BIP	7.46%	÷0.980	×0.860	×1.038	×1.012	6.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.086	×0.950	×1.038	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.47%	÷0.945	×0.780	—	×1.012	5.40%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 117, K 107, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .318 → .277; ISO .186 → .157; BABIP .268 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 545 PAwOBA .331 → .272 (−58)K% 20.4% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.37%	÷1.007	×1.420	—	—	28.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.17%	÷1.118	×0.750	—	×0.998	6.14%
HBP% /PA	0.73%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	0.68%
Singles /BIP	23.78%	÷1.002	×0.920	×1.004	×0.998	21.89%
Doubles /BIP	7.84%	÷0.940	×0.960	×1.004	×0.998	8.02%
Triples /BIP	1.08%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.004	×0.998	0.76%
Home runs /BIP	2.70%	÷1.265	×0.880	—	×0.998	1.88%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 153, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 101, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .331 → .272; ISO .139 → .111; BABIP .329 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ALansing Lugnuts · 548 PAwOBA .350 → .279 (−71)K% 20.6% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.62%	÷0.944	×1.360	—	—	29.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.85%	÷0.970	×0.690	—	—	7.01%
HBP% /PA	1.46%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.14%
Singles /BIP	21.27%	÷1.044	×0.920	×1.005	—	18.84%
Doubles /BIP	9.67%	÷0.982	×0.830	×1.005	—	8.22%
Triples /BIP	1.66%	÷0.918	×0.910	×1.005	—	1.65%
Home runs /BIP	3.31%	÷0.968	×0.800	—	—	2.74%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 109, 2B 96, 3B 84, K 89, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .350 → .279; ISO .175 → .141; BABIP .330 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ALansing Lugnuts · 71 PAwOBA .384 → .286 (−98)K% 21.1% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.13%	÷0.968	×1.360	—	—	29.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.27%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.85%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.043	×0.920	×1.050	×1.015	15.67%
Doubles /BIP	14.58%	÷1.210	×0.830	×1.050	×1.015	10.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.050	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷1.007	×0.800	—	×1.015	5.04%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 142, 3B 130, K 94, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .384 → .286; ISO .254 → .182; BABIP .333 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 ROKGCL Blue Jays · 212 PAwOBA .331 → .236 (−95)K% 17.0% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.98%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	24.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.91%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.995	6.11%
HBP% /PA	0.94%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.68%
Singles /BIP	26.32%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.988	×0.995	21.22%
Doubles /BIP	6.58%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.988	×0.995	4.66%
Triples /BIP	2.63%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.988	×0.995	1.86%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .331 → .236; ISO .096 → .065; BABIP .353 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 DSLDSL Blue Jays · 270 PAwOBA .336 → .230 (−106)K% 11.1% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.11%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	13.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.89%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	13.16%
HBP% /PA	0.74%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	0.52%
Singles /BIP	23.50%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.980	×0.995	15.59%
Doubles /BIP	4.37%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.980	×0.995	2.56%
Triples /BIP	0.55%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.980	×0.995	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	1.09%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.51%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .336 → .230; ISO .075 → .044; BABIP .286 → .185. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 DSLDSL Blue Jays · 117 PAwOBA .228 → .156 (−72)K% 16.2% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.24%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	19.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.97%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	8.44%
HBP% /PA	0.85%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.60%
Singles /BIP	17.28%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.977	×1.008	11.57%
Doubles /BIP	3.70%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.977	×1.008	2.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.977	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .228 → .156; ISO .030 → .018; BABIP .207 → .136. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .